ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Category5Kaiju]

I am thinking there is a decent chance at 11 EST they upgrade this to Fred, albeit very weak but still by definition a TS

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Large number of 35+ knot surface winds being measured

Yes, definitely appears to be TS Fred now based on that recon pass. 35-40 knots.

[Hurricane Mike]

Looks like some tropical storm force winds and a closed LLC. Not the best defined and I'd like to see lower pressures, but I'd go ahead and give it a name. (and I'm conservative when it comes to naming)

[Stormybajan]

I think we will have Tropical Storm Fred at 11

[Shell Mound]

Large number of 35+ knot surface winds being measured

Yes, definitely appears to be TS Fred now based on that recon pass. 35-40 knots.

The current movement on radar and satellite appears to be just north of due west. Steering favours considerable interaction with the Dominican Republic.

[Blown Away]

Maybe the circulation center is @16.5-16.9N/62.5-63W?

[abajan]

I think we will have Tropical Storm Fred at 11

Yes, I think they'll upgrade it to Fred, especially due to its proximity to land.

[NDG]

I think a good reason why it hasn't deepened yet is because the surface circulation and MLC are not yet stacked, it was clearly seen during the night, while the the surface vorticity passed through Dominica and Guadaloupe the MLC was further south over St Lucia.

[ChrisH-UK]

GOES-16 Red Band and Cloud Optical Depth is showing PTC 6 building up and starting to wrap around.

Source - https://col.st/WG2Ru

[Shell Mound]

https://i.imgur.com/aI7UAgU.png

Maybe the circulation center is @16.5-16.9N/62.5-63W?

It still looks more like a sharp wave axis (surface trough) than a closed low at this point. I don’t see much evidence of a reformation farther north than 16.2°N.

[NDG]

It looks to be meandering around like reforming closer to the convection.
They found the wind shift further north than earlier pass, with no gain in longitude towards the west.

35200 1626N 06325W 9232 00821 0138 +214 +150 076014 014 016 000 00
135230 1624N 06324W 9241 00810 0139 +209 +149 102010 014 019 001 00
135300 1622N 06323W 9230 00825 0141 +206 +153 126009 011 024 002 00
135330 1620N 06323W 9232 00821 0138 +211 +149 164009 011 036 009 00

[robbielyn]

https://i.imgur.com/0wLomgT.gif

it looks like a shrimp still dry on the south side.

[Blown Away]

https://i.imgur.com/aI7UAgU.png

Maybe the circulation center is @16.5-16.9N/62.5-63W?

It still looks more like a sharp wave axis (surface trough) than a closed low at this point. I don’t see much evidence of a reformation farther north than 16.2°N.

Lowest pressure is farther N, but it's not impressive.

[tolakram]

No center found this pass. Remember HWRF showed a sharp jump north, so this might be part of it.

[GCANE]

Looks like they are trying hard to find some solid west winds but no luck yet.

[tolakram]

Saved loop

[Dean4Storms]

Maybe an elongated overall center.

[Blown Away]

No center found this pass. Remember HWRF showed a sharp jump north, so this might be part of it.

https://i.imgur.com/SERrqIN.png

https://i.imgur.com/WoI6vJO.png

NHC had PTC6 at 16.0N/63.1W at 8am, I think they will adjust the estimated center closer to 16.7N at 11am

[jlauderdal]

No center found this pass. Remember HWRF showed a sharp jump north, so this might be part of it.

https://i.imgur.com/SERrqIN.png

https://i.imgur.com/WoI6vJO.png

NHC had PTC6 at 16.0N/63.1W at 8am, I think they will adjust the estimated center closer to 16.7N at 11am

Is there a center, not really.

[Category5Kaiju]

It has decent banding; I'd have to assume that it'll take very little for it to actually become a bona fide TC. I expect it to be named at least by the end of today