ATL: FRED - Models

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Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#281 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 10, 2021 10:47 am

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Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#282 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 10, 2021 10:48 am

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Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#283 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 10, 2021 10:49 am

Slower and a tad north of the last run, so far.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#284 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 10, 2021 10:50 am

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Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#285 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 10, 2021 10:52 am

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Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#286 Postby Spacecoast » Tue Aug 10, 2021 10:54 am

0z euro ens.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#287 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 10, 2021 10:56 am

12Z GFS pushing it into Cuba again.

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Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#288 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 10, 2021 11:03 am

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Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#289 Postby Evil Jeremy » Tue Aug 10, 2021 11:11 am

12z GFS takes this right into FL, looks like a path from roughly Homestead to Tampa. Most North it's been in the 4-5 day range in about the past 5 model cycles.
Last edited by Evil Jeremy on Tue Aug 10, 2021 11:12 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#290 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 10, 2021 11:12 am

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Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#291 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 10, 2021 11:13 am

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Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#292 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 10, 2021 11:23 am

Upper-level conditions appear to become more favorable “at the last minute” once near Florida, according to the GFS. Thankfully not much water between Cuba and Florida:

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Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#293 Postby SFLcane » Tue Aug 10, 2021 11:24 am

Evil Jeremy wrote:12z GFS takes this right into FL, looks like a path from roughly Homestead to Tampa. Most North it's been in the 4-5 day range in about the past 5 model cycles.


Coming back east on this cycle.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#294 Postby CourierPR » Tue Aug 10, 2021 11:32 am

gatorcane wrote:Upper-level conditions appear to become more favorable “at the last minute” once near Florida, according to the GFS. Thankfully not much water between Cuba and Florida:

https://i.postimg.cc/Fsx2LS3h/gfs-shear-watl-fh0-120.gif


In 1964, Hurricane Cleo crossed the mountains of southeastern Cuba then intensified significantly before striking the southeast coast of Florida.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#295 Postby toad strangler » Tue Aug 10, 2021 11:37 am

Euro will probably go to LA :lol:
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#296 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Tue Aug 10, 2021 11:44 am

CourierPR wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Upper-level conditions appear to become more favorable “at the last minute” once near Florida, according to the GFS. Thankfully not much water between Cuba and Florida:

https://i.postimg.cc/Fsx2LS3h/gfs-shear-watl-fh0-120.gif


In 1964, Hurricane Cleo crossed the mountains of southeastern Cuba then intensified significantly before striking the southeast coast of Florida.


Actually, Cleo was disrupted by the mountains on the SW peninsula of Haiti before it quickly crossed Cuba
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#297 Postby BobHarlem » Tue Aug 10, 2021 11:57 am

12Z HMON Splats up hard against Hispaniola, HWRF is bound to be another "interesting" run, as it's dodging Hispaniola to the North (after clipping western PR).
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#298 Postby Cat5James » Tue Aug 10, 2021 12:01 pm

12Z HWRF hello Mona Passage… this will not end well
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#299 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 10, 2021 12:06 pm

Well NE of the last run, but will it use the GFS shear data?
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Re: ATL: SIX - Models

#300 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Tue Aug 10, 2021 12:13 pm

Looks like the trend the last few runs has been more north and east. 12z euro will be interesting.
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