ATL: GRACE - Models

[tolakram]

Here's what the 12Z Euro wants to do with it, this far out.

[tolakram]

Right over the middle of Hispaniola. Ha. Too far out, but that poor island really takes the brunt of the Atlantic hurricane season.

[captainbarbossa19]

Here's what the 12Z Euro wants to do with it, this far out.

https://i.imgur.com/lbyaYMR.gif

The Euro sends the vorticity into Hispaniola. Seems like the Euro is bent on ending storms by just plowing them into islands this season. I will not buy this until we get closer.

[cycloneye]

* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL952021 08/10/21 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 38 43 47 53 57 63 71 78 85 87 89 89
V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 38 43 47 53 57 63 71 78 85 87 89 66
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 27 29 30 30 32 36 42 52 62 71 77 81 62
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 21 19 19 23 25 27 24 17 17 12 12 10 12 9 10 15 15
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -3 -5 -5 -6 -4 -2 -6 -7 -5 -6 -5 -2 0 0 0
SHEAR DIR 79 74 67 76 93 114 109 104 68 66 28 335 335 311 298 271 274
SST (C) 27.7 28.1 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.3 27.4 27.2 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.7 29.0 29.0 28.6
POT. INT. (KT) 135 140 141 138 135 135 129 131 129 140 143 145 146 148 153 153 146
ADJ. POT. INT. 135 140 141 138 135 135 129 131 129 140 143 145 146 148 151 148 139
200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -54.4 -54.3 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.8 -54.4 -54.6 -54.6 -54.4 -54.2 -54.4 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 8
700-500 MB RH 60 60 62 61 63 64 59 58 55 54 52 54 59 64 65 71 71
MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -3 -4 -10 -13 -10 -9 -14 -17 -21 -24 -19 -21 -3 -3 0 0 1
200 MB DIV 23 28 15 -16 -27 -16 -24 -14 16 13 10 6 46 41 68 20 27
700-850 TADV 1 -2 -3 -3 -1 1 1 2 4 5 3 4 1 0 0 2 7
LAND (KM) 1194 1363 1523 1659 1731 1671 1602 1353 1144 953 852 574 433 408 178 84 -38
LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.4 11.3 11.3 11.4 11.7 12.1 12.2 12.6 12.9 13.3 13.8 14.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 28.0 29.6 31.1 32.4 33.8 36.4 39.1 42.1 45.5 49.1 53.0 56.7 60.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 14 13 13 13 13 16 17 18 19 18 16 14 13 12 12
HEAT CONTENT 17 11 10 9 9 16 11 8 18 26 45 43 31 32 86 51 22

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 491 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.6

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 20. 25. 28. 32. 35. 39. 40. 42. 41.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -9. -10. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 9. 7. 6.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 18. 22. 28. 32. 38. 46. 53. 60. 62. 64. 64.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.5 28.0

** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 08/10/21 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.31 0.6
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 0.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.82 1.5
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 102.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 1.3
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.62 0.7
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.72 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.16 0.1
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 11.0% 7.4% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 7.2% 16.5% 11.8% 5.1% 4.1% 7.0% 5.9% 8.3%
Bayesian: 0.7% 5.5% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Consensus: 4.0% 11.0% 6.8% 3.9% 1.4% 2.4% 2.0% 2.8%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 08/10/2021 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 31 33 38 43 47 53 57 63 71 78 85 87 89 66
18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 35 40 44 50 54 60 68 75 82 84 86 63
12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 30 35 39 45 49 55 63 70 77 79 81 58
6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 27 31 37 41 47 55 62 69 71 73 50
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT

[captainbarbossa19]

Right over the middle of Hispaniola. Ha. Too far out, but that poor island really takes the brunt of the Atlantic hurricane season.

https://i.imgur.com/r8nSARa.png

Just saw you posted this as the same time as me. The Euro does not want to deal with storms this season apparently.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Right over the middle of Hispaniola. Ha. Too far out, but that poor island really takes the brunt of the Atlantic hurricane season.

https://i.imgur.com/r8nSARa.png

Just saw you posted this as the same time as me. The Euro does not want to deal with storms this season apparently.

The Euro has hardly developed anything since 2019.

[Jr0d]

Wow...early models runs show this coming towards South Florida. Not a good sign for the rest of the season. This might be one of those years where Florida is a storm magnetic....

[Spacecoast]

[captainbarbossa19]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/hcv4Rr1/ecmdc.jpg [/url]

Looks like a strong ridge to the north based on the tight cluster of movement towards the west.

[captainbarbossa19]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/hcv4Rr1/ecmdc.jpg [/url]

Looks like a strong ridge to the north based on the tight cluster of movement towards the west.

Also, it's a long way out, but the Euro eventually takes this system into the Gulf.

[cycloneye]

12z HWRF of PTC6 has 95L.

[aspen]

This already has excellent support from both the GEFS and Euro ensembles. The Euro members cluster towards a northern Lesser Antilles landfall, while the GEFS members are split between the Euro’s slight northern curve and a typical Caribbean Cruiser/due-west track.

[Spacecoast]

12z ECMF.... A couple more yellow members.
Operational (thick line, ECMF) now appears,with a southern track.
Thin line is ensemble mean, which shifts slightly to south of 0Z run:

[captainbarbossa19]

00z ICON is showing development NE of the Lesser Antilles in about 4 days.

[captainbarbossa19]

00z ICON is showing development NE of the Lesser Antilles in about 4 days.

The run ends with a 975 mb hurricane east of the Bahamas. It looks like a strong ridge is on top of it though.

[AtlanticWind]

Euro likes this on 00z run

[Ubuntwo]

A somewhat aggressive 0z EURO

[aspen]

Euro ensembles continue to be extremely active. Once 95L/Grace reaches the Lesser Antilles, three possibilities emerge:

1.) it continues WNW and goes over the shredder

2.) it stays a little south and becomes a Caribbean Cruiser

3.) it starts to recurve when it reaches the NE Lesser Antilles and intensifies in the NW part of the basin

[AlphaToOmega]

For what it is worth, the ECMWF shows a 30-40% chance of a tropical storm developing from this wave and a 90-100% chance of a tropical depression.

[aspen]

As well as showing no recovery for Fred, the 06z HWRF-P also shows no development of 95L. Maybe the HWRF is embarrassed by its failures and has decided to be very bearish for once.