ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AutoPenalti]

Dry air really did a number on it. This won’t survive past the Islands.

Good to know, can't wait to tell everyone in FL the all clear from you

Never said all clear for Florida either.

[NDG]

Still not seeing any west winds in the most recent recon pass so it looks like it's not quite there yet. Maybe this new burst of convection will help it get there.

They did found very weak west winds before heading back, they didn't sampled the SW quadrant.

[alienstorm]

Still not seeing any west winds in the most recent recon pass so it looks like it's not quite there yet. Maybe this new burst of convection will help it get there.

Time: 00:38:30Z
Coordinates: 17.450N 66.317W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.7 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,578 m (5,177 ft)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1010.6 mb (29.85 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 260° at 2 kts (From the W at 2.3 mph)
Air Temp: 17.6°C (63.7°F)
Dew Pt: 6.3°C (43.3°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 3 kts (3.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 18 kts (20.7 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr (0.04 in/hr)

[chaser1]

Definitely taking on more of that CDO look. Convection just exploding. No way that continues without resulting in a deeper core from surface up. I'll truly be surprised by no-upgrade by NHC by 11:00 pm

[ElectricStorm]

Still not seeing any west winds in the most recent recon pass so it looks like it's not quite there yet. Maybe this new burst of convection will help it get there.

They did found very weak west winds before heading back, they didn't sampled the SW quadrant.

I stand corrected

[gatorcane]

I mean, really lol. Can anybody name the last named storm the Islands killed entirely?

Ericka

Ericka fell apart before reaching Hispaniola, nice try.

Not quite

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2015/g ... 5NLW.shtml

[stormhunter7]

Still think the tagged center is a vort, swinging around and now tracking SW, back around larger upper level center.

[AlphaToOmega]

Still not seeing any west winds in the most recent recon pass so it looks like it's not quite there yet. Maybe this new burst of convection will help it get there.

They did found very weak west winds before heading back, they didn't sampled the SW quadrant.

Does that mean PTC 06L is a closed low?

[Category5Kaiju]

Even so, Erika occurred during a Super El Niño with extremely unfavorable wind shear

[NDG]

Ericka

Ericka fell apart before reaching Hispaniola, nice try.

Not quite

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2015/g ... 5NLW.shtml

Now I am confused, everything I find shows it dissipated south of Punta Cana eastern tip of Hispaniola.
From the NHC link below:

Later that day, Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations indicated that Erika no
longer had a well-defined center of circulation, and it is estimated that the tropical cyclone
dissipated shortly after 1200 UTC 28 August just south of the eastern tip of Hispaniola. The
remnants of Erika, an area of low pressure, moved across Haiti on 29 August,

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL052015_Erika.pdf

[tolakram]

This is not the Erika thread! Jeepers. Stay on topic please.

[Evil Jeremy]

Clearing up the Erika confusion, the NHC determined in it's offseason "Tropical Cyclone Report" series of reviews that Erika died running into Hispaniola, even though they would issue advisories for several days after:

Later that day, Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations indicated that Erika no
longer had a well-defined center of circulation, and it is estimated that the tropical cyclone
dissipated shortly after 1200 UTC 28 August just south of the eastern tip of Hispaniola.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL052015_Erika.pdf

[artist]

744
URNT12 KNHC 110125 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062021
A. 11/00:40:40Z
B. 17.34 deg N 066.30 deg W
C. 850 mb 1504 m
D. 1009 mb
E. 050 deg 6 kt
F. NA
G. NA
H. 35 kt
I. 006 deg 31 nm 00:31:00Z
J. 115 deg 40 kt
K. 038 deg 66 nm 00:20:00Z
L. 25 kt
M. 274 deg 8 nm 00:43:00Z
N. 043 deg 31 kt
O. 291 deg 77 nm 01:01:00Z
P. 17 C / 1532 m
Q. 19 C / 1526 m
R. 7 C / NA
S. 134 / 8
T. 0.02 / 6.5 nm
U. AF302 0206A SURVEY OB 11 CCA
MAX FL WIND 43 KT 038 / 71 NM 00:19:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 19 C 352 / 8 NM FROM FL CNTR

[NDG]

Regarding tonight's Recon tasked "Survey" Mission.
Very interesting and explains its flight path.

 https://twitter.com/JeremyDeHart53d/status/1425267088290197505

[NDG]

[SteveM]

744
URNT12 KNHC 110125 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062021
A. 11/00:40:40Z
B. 17.34 deg N 066.30 deg W
C. 850 mb 1504 m
D. 1009 mb
E. 050 deg 6 kt
F. NA
G. NA
H. 35 kt
I. 006 deg 31 nm 00:31:00Z
J. 115 deg 40 kt
K. 038 deg 66 nm 00:20:00Z
L. 25 kt
M. 274 deg 8 nm 00:43:00Z
N. 043 deg 31 kt
O. 291 deg 77 nm 01:01:00Z
P. 17 C / 1532 m
Q. 19 C / 1526 m
R. 7 C / NA
S. 134 / 8
T. 0.02 / 6.5 nm
U. AF302 0206A SURVEY OB 11 CCA
MAX FL WIND 43 KT 038 / 71 NM 00:19:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 19 C 352 / 8 NM FROM FL CNTR

Is there a thread or a key somewhere that explains how to read these?

[BobHarlem]

744

Is there a thread or a key somewhere that explains how to read these?

https://learningweather.psu.edu/node/66

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Transmitted: 11th day of the month at 1:25Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5302
Potential Tropical Cyclone: Six (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 11

A. Time of Center Fix: 11th day of the month at 0:40:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17.34N 66.30W
B. Center Fix Location: 75 statute miles (121 km) to the SSW (192°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (U.S.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,504m (4,934ft) at 850mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1009mb (29.80 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 50° at 6kts (From the NE at 7mph)
F. Eye Character: Not Available
G. Eye Shape: Not Available
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 35kts (40.3mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 31 nautical miles (36 statute miles) to the N (6°) of center fix at 0:31:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 115° at 40kts (From the ESE at 46.0mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 66 nautical miles (76 statute miles) to the NE (38°) of center fix at 0:20:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 25kts (28.8mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 8 nautical miles to the W (274°) of center fix at 0:43:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 43° at 31kts (From the NE at 35.7mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 77 nautical miles (89 statute miles) to the WNW (291°) of center fix at 1:01:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,532m (5,026ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,526m (5,007ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 7°C (45°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
S. Fix Level: 850mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 6.5 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 43kts (~ 49.5mph) which was observed 71 nautical miles (82 statute miles) to the NE (38°) from the flight level center at 0:19:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 19°C (66°F) which was observed 8 nautical miles to the N (352°) from the flight level center
General Note About Vortex Messages:
- SFMR and flight level winds are usually averaged over a 10 second period. (The National Hurricane Center's advisory wind speeds are the highest expected winds averaged over a 1 minute period.)

[SteveM]

Thanks!

[SFLcane]

[NDG]

This is not the Erika thread! Jeepers. Stay on topic please.

Understood but is always good to find and show the facts before making comparisons