ATL: GRACE - Remnants - Discussion

[AlphaToOmega]

Call me crazy, but I believe Invest 95L could become Tropical Storm Grace. SAL levels in the Atlantic are precipitously decreasing, so dry air is going to be less of a factor with Invest 95L than for MDR systems that developed earlier in the year.

[MetroMike]

Call me crazy, but I believe Invest 95L could become Tropical Storm Grace. SAL levels in the Atlantic are precipitously decreasing, so dry air is going to be less of a factor with Invest 95L than for MDR systems that developed earlier in the year.

This may be Fred imo.

[Nimbus]

Recon found a 10 mb pressure drop at a center north of the current deep convective burst.
IR imagery at night can be deceiving but it looks like it might have slowed some in its forward motion?

[Sciencerocks]

[captainbarbossa19]

Why are there 2 different threads now for a discussion of the same invest?

[Stormybajan]

Why are there 2 different threads now for a discussion of the same invest?

Legit have no idea what happened here..and theres a comment that belongs in the PTC6 thread..

[wwizard]

Why are there 2 different threads now for a discussion of the same invest?

Legit have no idea what happened here..and theres a comment that belongs in the PTC6 thread..

Yeah, I couldn't figure out why recon was way out in 95L.

[ElectricStorm]

No change on newest TWO

1. A tropical wave located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing showers and thunderstorms just to the
west of its axis. Some gradual development is possible over the
next several days while the system moves generally westward across
the tropical Atlantic at near 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[Teban54]

I've got a feeling this is gonna be a long thread. Here we go...

We're already at 42 pages for Fred which just formed 3 hours ago. If 95L takes on a similar path as Fred (kind of likely at this point), we might jolly well surpass that by the time it comes close to PR.

[aspen]

Convection isn’t as impressive as it was 24 hours ago, but 95L still has a very strong spin to it. I think by Saturday at the latest, we’ll have TD7 or TS Grace.

[Stormybajan]

Convection isn’t as impressive as it was 24 hours ago, but 95L still has a very strong spin to it. I think by Saturday at the latest, we’ll have TD7 or TS Grace.

Looks theres a decent SAL plume right on top of 95L, it will need to either outrun it or stay low enough not to be killed off. Wont do much until it nears 50W in a couple days

[HurricaneEnzo]

That influx of SAL really dried this up. It appears on satellite the SAL is moving in tandem with 95L so it may not be able to shake it for a while. Still nice spin as others have mentioned. Maybe in a few days it can find better conditions.

[AlphaToOmega]

Invest 95L is developing at a higher latitude than previous MDR disturbances this year, so it might have to work with cooler SSTs than previous disturbances. Conversely, SAL is winding down, so dry air is going to be less of a factor.

[AlphaToOmega]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fred, located about 50 miles east-southeast of Santo
Domingo, Dominican Republic.

1. A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic several
hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual
development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression
could form by early next week while moving generally westward
across the tropical Atlantic near 20 mph. This system could reach
portions of the Leeward Islands by late Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Berg

[USVIKimmie]

I've got a feeling this is gonna be a long thread. Here we go...

We're already at 42 pages for Fred which just formed 3 hours ago. If 95L takes on a similar path as Fred (kind of likely at this point), we might jolly well surpass that by the time it comes close to PR.

The threads start when it's in Invest and they just change the name, Check the OP On it and you will see it's more than 3 hours old

[cycloneye]

The axis of a tropical wave is near 31W from 18N southward,
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted within 60 nm of the wave axis from 08N to 11N.

[Category5Kaiju]

To be fair, I think the lack of convection is just temporary. Conditions are anyways better near the islands than out in the open Atlantic anyways

[cycloneye]

ATCF updated 95L at 12z.

AL, 95, 2021081112, , BEST, 0, 122N, 323W, 25, 1010, DB

[ouragans]

95L data have disapeared from Tropical Tidbits and Tropical Atlantic since 6z. Any idea why? Life if all best track info were erased...

EDIT: Wunderground has 95L active at 12z

[cycloneye]

Tropical Tidbits has it again.