ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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cheezyWXguy
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#741 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Aug 10, 2021 8:49 pm

So, we just got a vdm, implying a closed circulation with stated 35kt wind. 11pm upgrade looking likely, no?
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#742 Postby SFLcane » Tue Aug 10, 2021 8:50 pm

We should have Fred at 11pm.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#743 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 10, 2021 8:51 pm

744
URNT12 KNHC 110125 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062021
A. 11/00:40:40Z
B. 17.34 deg N 066.30 deg W
C. 850 mb 1504 m
D. 1009 mb
E. 050 deg 6 kt
F. NA
G. NA
H. 35 kt
I. 006 deg 31 nm 00:31:00Z
J. 115 deg 40 kt
K. 038 deg 66 nm 00:20:00Z
L. 25 kt
M. 274 deg 8 nm 00:43:00Z
N. 043 deg 31 kt
O. 291 deg 77 nm 01:01:00Z
P. 17 C / 1532 m
Q. 19 C / 1526 m
R. 7 C / NA
S. 134 / 8
T. 0.02 / 6.5 nm
U. AF302 0206A SURVEY OB 11 CCA
MAX FL WIND 43 KT 038 / 71 NM 00:19:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 19 C 352 / 8 NM FROM FL CNTR
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#744 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Tue Aug 10, 2021 8:52 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:So, we just got a vdm, implying a closed circulation with stated 35kt wind. 11pm upgrade looking likely, no?


Yes, that's usually the case. A VDM appearing indicates they've found a vortex.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#745 Postby canes04 » Tue Aug 10, 2021 8:54 pm

Appears to have slowed forward speed and trying to stack.
Possible NW turn sooner?
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#746 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Aug 10, 2021 8:59 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#747 Postby Nuno » Tue Aug 10, 2021 9:05 pm



Looks pretty good for an infant storm trying to consolidate. This will get upgraded at 11pm.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#748 Postby Evil Jeremy » Tue Aug 10, 2021 9:05 pm

Sciencerocks wrote:https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/7065/0NOO8L.gif


New CDL burst starting just S of the LLC?
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#749 Postby Chris90 » Tue Aug 10, 2021 9:06 pm

System is still a bit of a mess, but 6 has been doing better today than it was yesterday. Yesterday and last night the dry air to the SW was eating away at the bottom left portion of the system and the convective canopy was to the right said Fred. I couldn't help myself!

6 has been doing better today though and I don't think Hispaniola is going to be as detrimental as some believe. Mature, established circulations survive the shredder sometimes. Georges took the extended tour and kept himself together. If this storm was going to encounter hispaniola, 50kts of shear, and a gigantic plume of SAL in the first week of July I'd say calling for bones would be a safe bet, but it's August, the MJO is moving into the Atlantic, and Hispaniola probably won't disrupt a weak, shallow circulation that isn't stacked. May help the system consolidate better.

Honestly, I could see the possibility of a Cat 1/2 hurricane once it's cleared the Antilles. I'm not calling for that, I just don't think it's an unreasonable possibility.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#750 Postby DestinHurricane » Tue Aug 10, 2021 9:07 pm

would be very surprised if not named Fred at 11
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#751 Postby IsabelaWeather » Tue Aug 10, 2021 9:09 pm

Craters wrote:
tolakram wrote:saved loop
https://i.imgur.com/cYFHzlj.gif


Is it me or is that weak little LLC heading SW?



That was my thought, I was gonna head down to south of Cabo Rojo until it pulled that, before it did that it was marginal, now there is no point.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#752 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Aug 10, 2021 9:09 pm

I think there's some pretty damning evidence to upgrade it to Fred now
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#753 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Aug 10, 2021 9:10 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:So, we just got a vdm, implying a closed circulation with stated 35kt wind. 11pm upgrade looking likely, no?

agreed
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#754 Postby toad strangler » Tue Aug 10, 2021 9:16 pm

Fred won't be Fred post Hispaniola
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#755 Postby SFLcane » Tue Aug 10, 2021 9:17 pm

toad strangler wrote:Fred won't be Fred post Hispaniola


It’s a good possibility it will reform or maintain llc.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#756 Postby AdamFirst » Tue Aug 10, 2021 9:18 pm

This should be Fred at the 11 PM advisory.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#757 Postby BobHarlem » Tue Aug 10, 2021 9:20 pm

toad strangler wrote:Fred won't be Fred post Hispaniola


Fred's a bit cocky though. He may be too sexy for that. Granted he may take a while to recover if that happens, but HWRF was showing that was a possibility once closer to S. Florida.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#758 Postby Blinhart » Tue Aug 10, 2021 9:21 pm

toad strangler wrote:Fred won't be Fred post Hispaniola


Depends on the direction it takes and how long if any it hits Hispaniola. Storms have been known to miss Hispaniola or not get hindered too much when it isn't that deep of a storm.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#759 Postby stormhunter7 » Tue Aug 10, 2021 9:24 pm

Looks like Stewart is working the night shift..... He will look at a lot of data and explain his reasoning in the 11pm forecast package. I would expect a nice, detailed discussion if he's on duty.
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Re: ATL: SIX - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#760 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Tue Aug 10, 2021 9:24 pm

Blinhart wrote:
toad strangler wrote:Fred won't be Fred post Hispaniola


Depends on the direction it takes and how long if any it hits Hispaniola. Storms have been known to miss Hispaniola or not get hindered too much when it isn't that deep of a storm.

Throwback to the first "I" storm of 2020 coming out even stronger.
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