ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Fred put itself in a much better position for survival by forming further to the north today. Will only be clipping Hispaniola vs trekking over it entirely.

[chaser1]

Wobble watching will be interesting tonight. Continue west or go back to WNW? I'll say this though, for each minute and hour that minimal gain in latitude occurs it's gonna have to make one pretty sharp turn NW at some point to punch through the Mona perhaps only clipping Eastern DR. Otherwise, it'll get a much more hefty dose of Altitude Sickness

[StPeteMike]

Fred put itself in a much better position for survival by forming further to the north today. Will only be clipping Hispaniola vs trekking over it entirely.

He may also do what Elsa did and just ping pong around the big island and avoid it entirely. Think he’ll miss the island entirely.

Not really buying the conservative forecast strength at this point, but understand they don’t want to panic SFL residents.

[ElectricStorm]

Fred put itself in a much better position for survival by forming further to the north today. Will only be clipping Hispaniola vs trekking over it entirely.

He may also do what Elsa did and just ping pong around the big island and avoid it entirely. Think he’ll miss the island entirely.

Not really buying the conservative forecast strength at this point, but understand they don’t want to panic SFL residents.

Well they mentioned shear might be an issue for a bit after clearing the islands so that might hamper it some. But if it gets in the gulf watch out...

[toad strangler]

Fred put itself in a much better position for survival by forming further to the north today. Will only be clipping Hispaniola vs trekking over it entirely.

He may also do what Elsa did and just ping pong around the big island and avoid it entirely. Think he’ll miss the island entirely.

Not really buying the conservative forecast strength at this point, but understand they don’t want to panic SFL residents.

Fred is gonna eat a decent part of the island and I don't agree at all with the thought that the NHC is being conservative in order to keep anyone from panicking.

[stormhunter7]

The amount of lightning in the blowup on south side of the CoC! Wow. This system appears to be getting close to being stacked, IMO.

[chaser1]

Fred put itself in a much better position for survival by forming further to the north today. Will only be clipping Hispaniola vs trekking over it entirely.

He may also do what Elsa did and just ping pong around the big island and avoid it entirely. Think he’ll miss the island entirely.

Not really buying the conservative forecast strength at this point, but understand they don’t want to panic SFL residents.

Fred is gonna eat a decent part of the island and I don't agree at all with the thought that the NHC is being conservative in order to keep anyone from panicking.

Yeah, I agree that Fred's gonna ingest a lot of rock unless it somehow pulls a shocker and really track just off the south coast of Hispaniola. Present motion and satellite appearance with the MLC a bit south of the LLC would lead me to think a more short-term west track might be more plausible then a far more sudden WNW to NW motion needed to remain on forecast track. My only problem is how do you bet against NHC on short term track forecast? No way do I see a significant trek through the mountains allow Fred to remain a T.S. after emerging on the N. Coast. For that matter, I see no way that a more inland route even leave any closed LLC at all. Not suggesting latter reformation couldn't occur but it would be pretty bloodied and beat up.

[Jr0d]

Fred put itself in a much better position for survival by forming further to the north today. Will only be clipping Hispaniola vs trekking over it entirely.

He may also do what Elsa did and just ping pong around the big island and avoid it entirely. Think he’ll miss the island entirely.

Not really buying the conservative forecast strength at this point, but understand they don’t want to panic SFL residents.

No reason to hype what will likely be a tropical storm and build more complacency. That said after Fred makes it past Hispaniola then we will know if this has the potential not be more than a weak storm.

[chaser1]

One other thought on short term motion..... in it's formative stage had the MLC been leading the trailing LLC to the south, I'd fully expect a fairly quick reformation in which the LLC would jump north and vertically align itself. We commonly see that occur. I think that the very fact that the better developed MLC is south of the LLC might be slightly hindering the LLC from gaining latitude as it's tucking itself in better alignment with that mid level core which might have been temporarily negating overall deep layer flow to gain latitude. Of course, that mid level circulation should be feeling that same deep layer flow that should be causing a motion closer to 290 degrees then 270. Maybe there will be a brief pause in westward motion over the next couple hours as the system as a whole deepens a bit more and becomes even better vertically aligned.

[Nimbus]

NHC replaced the red suspenders with TS Fred at 11pm just before the new convective burst further north. Dominican Republic needs the warnings since the system is stacking, but the west coast of Florida should be out of range for the computer models.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Speaking of reformation...the center we were tracking earlier has reformed again. You can see it clearly on SJU radar. It also has some hefty thunderstorms on the south side that are curving back in. It also looks to be moving more to the wnw.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/Rad ... /loop.html

On the radar up the number of frames to 50 and it is easier to see.
It has also stacked with the MLC while doing it.

[Hurricane Mike]

Here's a midnight video update on Fred
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MNSTIvoDeuE

[IsabelaWeather]

So far its only slightly windier than a normal breezy day here, only .05" of rain yesterday so none basically. Rain looks to be developing now that the storm is getting together. Hoping it makes some northward progress before its too far west, would love to sample some of the stronger wind. Only had 36mpg just today with an outer rainband which is the highest gust this year, anyway.

[Woofde]

I may be being deceived, but it certainly looks like there is the start of some solid structure on radar.

[StPeteMike]

Whatever Fred is doing, the tightening up also seems to nudge him more north than west the last 30 minutes or so.

[chaser1]

Speaking of reformation...the center we were tracking earlier has reformed again. You can see it clearly on SJU radar. It also has some hefty thunderstorms on the south side that are curving back in. It also looks to be moving more to the wnw.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/Rad ... /loop.html

On the radar up the number of frames to 50 and it is easier to see.
It has also stacked with the MLC while doing it.

Thanks, that really is a great loop at 50 frames! I don't know though, something's not quite looking right. It almost appears to me that the recent LLC has spun off like an eddy leaving a much more broad LLC in which the MLC is slightly attempting to pull convection up and around from the east. Still pretty hard for me to make a case yet for that much more poleward motion overall.

[StPeteMike]

Speaking of reformation...the center we were tracking earlier has reformed again. You can see it clearly on SJU radar. It also has some hefty thunderstorms on the south side that are curving back in. It also looks to be moving more to the wnw.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/Rad ... /loop.html

On the radar up the number of frames to 50 and it is easier to see.
It has also stacked with the MLC while doing it.

Thanks, that really is a great loop at 50 frames! I don't know though, something's not quite looking right. It almost appears to me that the recent LLC has spun off like an eddy leaving a much more broad LLC in which the MLC is slightly attempting to pull convection up and around from the east. Still pretty hard for me to make a case yet for that much more poleward motion overall.

Agreed, something seems to be moving faster than everything else. Don’t know if it’s the LLC or what. And shear shouldn’t be too much of an impact atm to make the LLC racing that far ahead of the MLC or at least making it appear to be. Although we have seen LLCs start tightening up faster near land, may just be a new circulation forming and having a quicker spin while in the process of killing the current LLC.

Guess we shall see in a few hours.

[IsabelaWeather]

Wow is Fred getting its act together now it looks like, eyewall feature looks to be wrapping around CoC now and looks like a developing CDO

[AtlanticWind]

Wednesday will be interesting day as we will see how Fred interacts with Hispanola.
You really never know what systems will do in these situations.

It could run head on and be severely disrupted or it could make a run thru the mona passage
and skirt the Northern coast. Sometimes we could see reformations to the north or south, but
I think that might be a liitle less likely with Freds speed.

We will find out soon.

[Woofde]

If Fred does manage to minimally interact with land and shear doesn't increase. RI could be realistic with this structure.