ATL: FRED - Models

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Not liking the turn into Key Largo at all no matter how small it may look.

[BobHarlem]

0z Icon stays weak into the Keys (shift left from earlier runs), this one goes over most of Hispaniola, though, then rides ... well crawls slowly... up just offshore the west coast of Florida.

I think the biggest takeaway here is how much it slows down in the Gulf.

[StPeteMike]

Wondering why the lack of attention to this thread until I saw the 0z GFS pretty much keeps this a sloppy Fred his whole lifespan haha

[SouthFLTropics]

Are my eyes playing tricks on me or has the HWRF gone bonkers at 00z. Looks like it initialized Fred near the PR coast and then moves it SW for the next 6 hours.

[Woofde]

Are my eyes playing tricks on me or has the HWRF gone bonkers at 00z. Looks like it initialized Fred near the PR coast and then moves it SW for the next 6 hours.

I noticed that too, the structure it shows also looks nothing like what actual radar shows.

[ElectricStorm]

HWRF has it going right for the tall mountains so this will be interesting to see how it plays out.

[Woofde]

Are my eyes playing tricks on me or has the HWRF gone bonkers at 00z. Looks like it initialized Fred near the PR coast and then moves it SW for the next 6 hours.

I noticed that too, the structure it shows also looks nothing like what actual radar shows.

It looks like it decides that a vortex to the SW takes over and runs it from there. Very unlikely and a junk model run already IMO.

[ElectricStorm]

Hmm HWRF has it going SW at the start of the run but on radar that's not happening...

[AutoPenalti]

what the hell HWRF lol


is this as a result of the LLC tucking in the MLC to the SW?

[Shell Mound]

18z GFS doing it's best to poof PTC6 over Cuba

Toss this run, init was hundreds of miles too far south if that radar MLC is the real deal.

Yeah but now all of the sudden unfavorable conditions return. Look how the ULL suddenly strengthens

Actually, the latest GFS shows more UL divergence and hence anticyclonic flow north of Cuba and over the Bahamas by 66h (18Z 13 Aug) vs. previous runs.

[ElectricStorm]

HWRF dives it SW into Cuba after it clears Hispaniola. Until I see actual evidence this might happen I'm throwing this run out

[N2FSU]

6z GFS looking much more robust with Fred



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[Cat5James]

Expecting another shift north with the cone. 00z euro and 06z GFS bring this Thru the southern peninsula before moving Into the gulf.


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[robbielyn]

6z GFS looking much more robust with Fred
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210811/6530c3f357694badf09012fed7a54232.jpg

Also landfalls southern tip of fl rides up west coast of fl exits into the big bend.


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[SFLcane]

Gfs stronger and east.

[NDG]

o6z GFS and 0z Euro are fairly similar in the track, the Euro remaining more to the right.
I guess it all depends exactly where it trackds near the eastern GOM, offshore the whole time will mean a stronger system vs near the coast or just inland.

[NDG]

What a joke the HWRF has become, it has gone from a Cat 1/Cat 2 hurricane for SE FL to barely a TD approaching SE FL in less than 3 runs.

[jlauderdal]

What a joke the HWRF has become, it has gone from a Cat 1/Cat 2 hurricane for SE FL to barely a TD approaching SE FL in less than 3 runs.

Become or was a joke, i hoisted a warning about it during elsa and pre-fred...it creates tons of excotement but rarely delivers

[toad strangler]

Intensity is still the great untamed frontier in modeling. We all know that. ESPECIALLY with a system that gets entangled by a GA island.

[NDG]

What a joke the HWRF has become, it has gone from a Cat 1/Cat 2 hurricane for SE FL to barely a TD approaching SE FL in less than 3 runs.

Become or was a joke, i hoisted a warning about it during elsa and pre-fred...it creates tons of excotement but rarely delivers

That it has become this year is what I am saying.