ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[stormhunter7]

Lighting in the center.... WoW... Away from deep convection... Fred is venting right now!

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like it's trying to get something going but it's going to have to turn N soon to avoid the tallest mountains.

[AutoPenalti]

Here comes Hispaniola, going to be interesting what it does. It will have to relocate further north for this to jump the islands.

[Category5Kaiju]

Fred’s going boom now, but we’ll see if that burst lasts. It looks like it is headed toward the DR’s center though, but imho even if it does get shredded then I would be curious to see if it actually is able to build itself quickly again after emerging or if it simply dissipates, although imho the former is what I would bet on. Now if it completely avoids the mountains in any manner, then we are going to have to watch closely as a strong TS or low end hurricane near Florida cannot be ruled out imho if that were to occur.

[ElectricStorm]

Looks to me on radar right now that if it keeps its current heading it'll miss the tallest mountains...

[ScottNAtlanta]

I have seen plenty of times a storm center that was forecast to go inland follow right along the coast but never really go in. This could be the case here. These weak storms will do some strange things when it comes to larger islands

[ScottNAtlanta]

Speaking of reformation...the center we were tracking earlier has reformed again. You can see it clearly on SJU radar. It also has some hefty thunderstorms on the south side that are curving back in. It also looks to be moving more to the wnw.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/Rad ... /loop.html

On the radar up the number of frames to 50 and it is easier to see.
It has also stacked with the MLC while doing it.

Thanks, that really is a great loop at 50 frames! I don't know though, something's not quite looking right. It almost appears to me that the recent LLC has spun off like an eddy leaving a much more broad LLC in which the MLC is slightly attempting to pull convection up and around from the east. Still pretty hard for me to make a case yet for that much more poleward motion overall.

Take a look at it now...the last several frames show a distinct northerly component to the westward motion. It looks like it is trying to close a center that is open NW

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/WeathersWX/status/1425315396920414209



 https://twitter.com/WeathersWX/status/1425315408056393728



 https://twitter.com/willkomaromi/status/1425315712638144517

[skyline385]

Curious as to why 0Z HWRF had the center relocating SW and passing through central DR. The Satellite imagery does not support it at all..

[ScottNAtlanta]

With its direction right now I would not be surprised it this threads the Mona Passage

[Shell Mound]

With its direction right now I would not be surprised it this threads the Mona Passage

[ElectricStorm]

With its direction right now I would not be surprised it this threads the Mona Passage

It would have to turn north pretty quickly to do that, however it does look like it's going to miss the tallest mountains unless it suddenly turns west.

EDIT: I say this and the last few frames it does look like it might be turning west a bit. Definitely a wait and see situation where every wobble matters.

[AtlanticWind]

With its direction right now I would not be surprised it this threads the Mona Passage

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.GIF

I dont understand what you are trying to show there.
If you go by those charts Fred would go straight west , and would
never have reached the lattitude its at to begin with.

[chaser1]

Curious as to why 0Z HWRF had the center relocating SW and passing through central DR. The Satellite imagery does not support it at all..

Actually, the San Juan radar (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/Rad ... /loop.html) better depicts the general COC then viewing the overshooting cold cloud tops from it's CDO. I think a track further west then forecast causing Fred to track through a good deal more land is what it's looking like is evolving. At the 11:00pm advisory, Fred was initialized at 17.4N & 66.8W. Per radar, I have a hard time making an argument for the COC being any further north of 17.5N right now. Meanwhile, the 12Z forecast position (6 1/2 hr's from now) is 18.6N & 68.9W

[Shell Mound]

With its direction right now I would not be surprised it this threads the Mona Passage

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.GIF

I dont understand what you are trying to show there.
If you go by those charts Fred would go straight west , and would
never have reached the lattitude its at to begin with.

I do agree. In fact, based on the latest NEXRAD, the LLC might be reforming a bit farther north, closer to Cabo Rojo, Puerto Rico. The overall movement still appears to be north of due west, and closer to WNW rather than W. I do think that this will follow the NHC’s centre-line or even deviate slightly to its north, which would imply relatively minimal interaction with the flatter part of the Dominican Republic. If this ends up being the case, then most of the guidance, particularly HWRF/HMON, is likely underestimating Fred’s intensity in the Bahamas, given that most of the guidance shows Fred tracking south of the NHC’s track and interacting with the mountainous interior of Hispaniola.

[AtlanticWind]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.GIF

I dont understand what you are trying to show there.
If you go by those charts Fred would go straight west , and would
never have reached the lattitude its at to begin with.

I do agree. In fact, based on the latest NEXRAD, the LLC might be reforming a bit farther north, closer to Cabo Rojo, Puerto Rico. The overall movement still appears to be north of due west, and closer to WNW rather than W. I do think that this will follow the NHC’s centre-line or even deviate slightly to its north, which would imply relatively minimal interaction with the flatter part of the Dominican Republic. If this ends up being the case, then most of the guidance, particularly HWRF/HMON, is likely underestimating Fred’s intensity in the Bahamas, given that most of the guidance shows Fred tracking south of the NHC’s track and interacting with the mountainous interior of Hispaniola.

I think its gonna be close to avoid the high mountains , it would need to start a true wnw course soon . We will find out soon.

[Shell Mound]

I dont understand what you are trying to show there.
If you go by those charts Fred would go straight west , and would
never have reached the lattitude its at to begin with.

I do agree. In fact, based on the latest NEXRAD, the LLC might be reforming a bit farther north, closer to Cabo Rojo, Puerto Rico. The overall movement still appears to be north of due west, and closer to WNW rather than W. I do think that this will follow the NHC’s centre-line or even deviate slightly to its north, which would imply relatively minimal interaction with the flatter part of the Dominican Republic. If this ends up being the case, then most of the guidance, particularly HWRF/HMON, is likely underestimating Fred’s intensity in the Bahamas, given that most of the guidance shows Fred tracking south of the NHC’s track and interacting with the mountainous interior of Hispaniola.

I think its gonna be close to avoid the high mountains , it would need to start a true wnw course soon . We will find ot soon.

[ElectricStorm]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
200 AM AST Wed Aug 11 2021

...TROPICAL STORM FRED MOVING JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO
RICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 67.6W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

NHC has it moving west so it needs to turn soon to avoid the mountains

[skyline385]

Curious as to why 0Z HWRF had the center relocating SW and passing through central DR. The Satellite imagery does not support it at all..

Actually, the San Juan radar (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/Rad ... /loop.html) better depicts the general COC then viewing the overshooting cold cloud tops from it's CDO. I think a track further west then forecast causing Fred to track through a good deal more land is what it's looking like is evolving. At the 11:00pm advisory, Fred was initialized at 17.4N & 66.8W. Per radar, I have a hard time making an argument for the COC being any further north of 17.5N right now. Meanwhile, the 12Z forecast position (6 1/2 hr's from now) is 18.6N & 68.9W

HWRF 0Z at 6h (15 mins from now) has the center at 16.75N, 68.5W after relocating SW. From the San Juan loop you linked, the COC at the end looks to be in the block from 17.5N-18N and 67.5W.

[Sciencerocks]