ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

With its direction right now I would not be surprised it this threads the Mona Passage

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.GIF

I don’t think this map is really sufficient for deciding the path of the storm when the NHC Map clearly doesn’t just follow the steering currents on the map you provided.



Also the 2am Disco says it will begin a WNW motion soon:

At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was
located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 67.6 West. Fred is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a general
west-northwestward motion is expected to begin later today and
continue for the next few days.

With that said I think it’s going to ride the northern side of DR not totally miss it. But it’s certainly not chugging due west to Central America.

[skyline385]

Looks like a pretty significant shift to the west again in the Ensembles. What's surprising though is how weak they are given the temperatures in the Gulf, maybe the ensemble members with their coarse resolution are having trouble resolving the tiny system...

[eastcoastFL]

[AtlanticWind]

Euro takes it into the middle of D.R. I starting to doubt this will aviod the high mountains.

[skyline385]

Euro takes it into the middle of D.R. I starting to doubt this will aviod the high mountains.

Well EURO has been pretty questionable the last couple of years...

[skyline385]

The NHC interactive map seems to show that most of the winds extend NE of the center but looking at the San Juan radar loop, all the precipitation is SW of center...

[ElectricStorm]

This is going to be a very close call with those tallest mountains and I expect Fred to weaken to a depression at the minimum. However if it avoids Cuba I think there will be a chance for it to get it's act together, especially if it gets into the gulf.

[AtlanticWind]

Euro takes it into the middle of D.R. I starting to doubt this will aviod the high mountains.

Well EURO has been pretty questionable the last couple of years...

Very true

[beoumont]

Hotel Hispaniola: They check in. And quite often they never check out.

[AtlanticWind]

Hotel Hispaniola: They check in. And quite often they never check out.

But they just cant kill the beast

[Jr0d]

We will see. We have seen many systems get shredded into an open wave, we have seen systems nowhere the terrain causes the LLC to.ping ping around the mountains, we have even seen systems nowhere the terrain helps tighten up an LLC.

This is truly a dice roll, this time tomorrow we may have a disorganized wave that has been shredded to a strengthening storm that is churning towards more favorable conditions and anything in between.

I do not think a reputable pro met would bet on Friday's intensity forecast for Fred. The Hispaniola interaction is too much of a gamble.

Unfortunately for Hispaniola, despite Fred's small size it still will bring flooding rains to some areas.

[AtlanticWind]

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24

Maybe it will make a run for the Mona Passage

[chaser1]

Euro takes it into the middle of D.R. I starting to doubt this will aviod the high mountains.

Well EURO has been pretty questionable the last couple of years...

What's not questionable is the NHC 2:00am position: 17.6 North & 67.6 West, moving west at 15 kt's. In order for the 12Z forecast point (5 1/2 hr.'s away) for Fred to be at 18.6N & 68.9W to verify, Fred better find his good friend Houdini to magically turn it's butt due Northwest. Otherwise, Fred's taking the Euro-train through the mountains

[SFLcane]

[skyline385]

Euro takes it into the middle of D.R. I starting to doubt this will aviod the high mountains.

Well EURO has been pretty questionable the last couple of years...

What's not questionable is the NHC 2:00am position: 17.6 North & 67.6 West, moving west at 15 kt's. In order for the 12Z forecast point (5 1/2 hr.'s away) for Fred to be at 18.6N & 68.9W to verify, Fred better find his good friend Houdini to magically turn it's butt due Northwest. Otherwise, Fred's taking the Euro-train through the mountains

You keep on saying this but your coordinates are completely wrong in case you are referring to the HWRF from my original post. The MLC on HWRF at 12Z is located at 17.25N and 69W and the LLC is located at 17.5N and 69.5W from the 850mb wind & 700-400 hPa wind plots suggesting an elongated storm from the center relocation (which doesnt seem to be happening right now). I have no idea where you are seeing the 18.6N coordinate in 5 hours....

[skyline385]

That's a nice CDO it's pumping right now...

[AtlanticWind]

That's a nice CDO it's pumping right now...

It is , but I am having trouble locating the center.

[skyline385]

That's a nice CDO it's pumping right now...

It is , but I am having trouble locating the center.

Yea it's completely obscuring the LLC.

On a side note, the weak banding to the west of the system seems to be protecting the core and the CDO from dry air intrusion from what i am seeing on the water vapour loop.

[chaser1]

Well EURO has been pretty questionable the last couple of years...

What's not questionable is the NHC 2:00am position: 17.6 North & 67.6 West, moving west at 15 kt's. In order for the 12Z forecast point (5 1/2 hr.'s away) for Fred to be at 18.6N & 68.9W to verify, Fred better find his good friend Houdini to magically turn it's butt due Northwest. Otherwise, Fred's taking the Euro-train through the mountains

You keep on saying this but your coordinates are completely wrong in case you are referring to the HWRF from my original post. The MLC on HWRF at 12Z is located at 17.25N and 69W and the LLC is located at 17.5N and 69.5W from the 850mb wind & 700-400 hPa wind plots suggesting an elongated storm from the center relocation (which doesnt seem to be happening right now). I have no idea where you are seeing the 18.6N coordinate in 5 hours....

Pretty sure you made a reference to the HWRF forecast having been adjusted further west, suggesting that should this verify Fred would traverse a much greater range of mountainous terrain. My point is that there must have been some validly to that westward shift in forecast track given Fred's continued westward motion and the obvious implications that will result. I don't really care where the 12Z HWRF forecast coordinates exactly were, I was simply in agreement with the HWRF model suggesting a further westward shift in track while continuing to track real-time radar and satellite motion over the last several hours. Below represented the NHC 11:00 pm advisory and the 12 hour forecast position that i was quoting as a reference point relative to Fred's track being south and west of NHC's 12Z forecast position. Extrapolation: more west, more mountainous terrain to contend with.

TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021
0300 UTC WED AUG 11 2021

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 18.6N 68.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

[Shell Mound]

I will say this: if Fred were to track over the mountainous interior of Hispaniola, I think regeneration in the Gulf would be rather unlikely, given the small vortex. The ICON and ECMWF do show regeneration, but do so literally “out of thin air,” the original vortex having already dissipated due to interaction with Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. This is evident on the most recent individual runs themselves. Anything that does regenerate would likely be very weak, but personally I am skeptical of regeneration, given the likely dissipation of the vortex before then.