ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[chaser1]

I would place the COC at 17.6N & 67.8W. Present motion between 275-280 degrees

[chaser1]

I will say this: if Fred were to track over the mountainous interior of Hispaniola, I think regeneration in the Gulf would be rather unlikely, given the small vortex. The ICON and ECMWF do show regeneration, but do so literally “out of thin air,” the original vortex having already dissipated due to interaction with Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. This is evident on the most recent individual runs themselves. Anything that does regenerate would likely be very weak, but personally I am skeptical of regeneration, given the likely dissipation of the vortex before then.

Perhaps. The low level circulation would essentially be like a Crayola crayon on a hot summer day sidewalk. Spread out without remaining structure. Depending on how robust the MLC remains to be and how optimum other factors may or may not be, should dictate if a LLC will eventually redevelop. Certainly the time involved starting from scratch verses having an existent vertical storm structure will likely limit top end potential.

[jconsor]

Fred packing a punch across PR.

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1425382285642194953

[Chemmers]

Nhc now has a 65 mph storm coming into the big bend, wouldn’t be surprised at all if they bumped it up to a hurricane in the next few days, if Fred manage to miss all the high mountains

[Shell Mound]

The circulation is very elongated and rather disorganised at various levels. Surface pressures are high and observed 10-m winds rather low for a TS.

[Jr0d]

I though about this earlier, but there might be a chance Fred stays on the south side of Hispaniola. If I recall correctly, Laura was originally forecast to go through or north of Hispaniola....and stayed south.

We will see tonight if Fred will survive the shredder.

[Blown Away]

Fred about to decouple. It almost appears the low level circulation is making a little N jump in the Mona passage.

[Cat5James]

Just me or does Fred look like it’s going to cross DR and the eastern part of the island avoiding the highest terrain? Latest frames appear more NW then WNW. (Llc is NW section of that convection)

[Weatherboy1]

Shortwave IR appears to show the LLC is located at the NW tip of the convection. Will be interesting to see if Fred can skirt worst terrain or not

[NDG]

54 knot winds by recon, unflagged.
Pressure of 1002 mb, extrap.

NOAA3 0306A FRED HDOB 12 20210811
102730 1755N 06854W 6962 03181 0037 +119 +087 055017 019 028 000 00
102800 1756N 06853W 6957 03183 0040 +114 +092 063014 017 028 000 00
102830 1757N 06851W 6962 03178 0032 +120 +095 082011 011 026 000 00
102900 1757N 06849W 6958 03179 0023 +125 +078 099009 010 026 000 00
102930 1758N 06847W 6955 03181 0019 +128 +079 113010 010 030 000 00
103000 1759N 06845W 6956 03178 0020 +125 +078 122009 010 038 000 00
103030 1800N 06843W 6954 03177 0023 +120 +085 121013 014 038 000 00
103100 1801N 06841W 6961 03171 0025 +118 +089 137016 017 035 000 00
103130 1802N 06839W 6952 03181 0031 +110 +101 149018 019 044 001 00
103200 1803N 06837W 6950 03184 0040 +103 +092 161021 021 047 000 00
103230 1804N 06835W 6947 03184 0044 +100 +088 162021 022 054 001 00
103300 1805N 06833W 6947 03185 0042 +101 +096 158019 021 053 001 00
103330 1806N 06831W 6951 03178 0043 +099 +106 155022 025 052 000 01
103400 1807N 06829W 6951 03182 0049 +095 +109 164030 030 050 005 01
103430 1808N 06827W 6966 03161 0045 +100 +117 157030 033 045 010 01
103500 1809N 06825W 6962 03172 0044 +100 +111 146022 028 045 003 01
103530 1809N 06823W 6947 03185 0048 +097 +106 148020 024 046 003 01
103630 1811N 06819W 6970 03160 0047 +100 +109 147021 023 036 000 01
103700 1812N 06818W 6969 03163 0052 +098 +111 144023 023 037 001 01
103730 1813N 06816W 6968 03166 0056 +096 +109 148023 024 036 001 01

[NDG]

The circulation is very elongated and rather disorganised at various levels. Surface pressures are high and observed 10-m winds rather low for a TS.

You spoke too soon.

[weeniepatrol]

Recon has extrapolated pressures as low as 1002mb

Edit: beat to the punch

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Those SFMR readings are likely too close to land to be taken at face value, as they were recorded just offshore the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic.

However, a decent pressure drop from last flight was observed by this pass; I'm just waiting on the central dropsonde to confirm that. You might be able to go 40kt/1003 mb at 8 am, if not sooner.

[NDG]

Red dot is where recon found the LLC, it has widened its distance from the MLC again.

[NDG]

Those SFMR readings are likely too close to land to be taken at face value, as they were recorded just offshore the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic.

However, a decent pressure drop from last flight was observed by this pass; I'm just waiting on the central dropsonde to confirm that. You might be able to go 40kt/1003 mb at 8 am, if not sooner.

That could very well be the case, 40-45 knots is probably more likely.

[Nimbus]

Probably see a convective burst near Samaná Bay later today as the forecast center reformation starts to occur off the north coast. Winds aren't too bad yet so DR should be OK.

[wxman57]

Barely holding onto a circulation this morning. No strong evidence from recon. This is not a 40-45 kt TS, and I don't buy for a second the 54kt SFMR below 21kt FL winds outside of convection. Obs near the system have relatively light wind. Will likely be losing its circulation soon, if not already.

[NDG]

LLC still there, still well defined.

[Shell Mound]

Barely holding onto a circulation this morning. No strong evidence from recon. This is not a 40-45 kt TS, and I don't buy for a second the 54kt SFMR below 21kt FL winds outside of convection. Obs near the system have relatively light wind. Will likely be losing its circulation soon, if not already.

I agree. Honestly, I question whether this system ever became a TS to begin with, given the ambiguous nature of the “LLC.” The low-level circulation has always been broad and both FL winds and surface data have never supported MSW of TS intensity at 10 m. Fred is more similar to a strong tropical wave. Elsa was similar for most of its lifespan, excluding its passage through the Lesser Antilles, and featured similarly high MSLP while a “TS.” Almost all the TS gusts from Puerto Rico are also occurring well above the standard 10-m elevation. Even if Fred somehow is a marginal TS, in practice its real-world impact is similar to that of a strong wave. Could it redevelop in the Gulf? Perhaps, given that it never had a well-defined LLC to begin with, but I am still skeptical.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Looks like Fred is going to need to take a page from the Dorian playbook and have a center relocation to the North. I'm not convinced it survives Hispaniola without it. Not completely writing Fred off but he isn't looking so hot right now.