ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AlphaToOmega]

Even IF Fred does not survive Hispaniola, it could reform over the Gulf of Mexico.

[tolakram]

Fred clearly has an LLC as it's mostly naked now, but hardly questionable. I wonder if there will ever be a time when we can predict storms in this area more than 2 days out. I'm still not convinced we know what will happen if anything makes it north of Hispaniola.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[MarioProtVI]

Barely holding onto a circulation this morning. No strong evidence from recon. This is not a 40-45 kt TS, and I don't buy for a second the 54kt SFMR below 21kt FL winds outside of convection. Obs near the system have relatively light wind. Will likely be losing its circulation soon, if not already.

I agree. Honestly, I question whether this system ever became a TS to begin with, given the ambiguous nature of the “LLC.” The low-level circulation has always been broad and both FL winds and surface data have never supported MSW of TS intensity at 10 m. Fred is more similar to a strong tropical wave. Elsa was similar for most of its lifespan, excluding its passage through the Lesser Antilles, and featured similarly high MSLP while a “TS.” Almost all the TS gusts from Puerto Rico are also occurring well above the standard 10-m elevation. Even if Fred somehow is a marginal TS, in practice its real-world impact is similar to that of a strong wave. Could it redevelop in the Gulf? Perhaps, given that it never had a well-defined LLC to begin with, but I am still skeptical.

Fred is clearly a TS. I don’t know where your getting your info from but early visible clearly shows a LLC, so this is just completely stupid. Also recon has been having issues transmitting as of late, such as last night, and the pressure readings were probably not working correctly. The NHC are the experts for a reason, if they found a center last night with evidence suggesting a TS, they had every right to upgrade it to Fred.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Fred clearly has an LLC as it's mostly naked now, but hardly questionable. I wonder if there will ever be a time when we can predict storms in this area more than 2 days out. I'm still not convinced we know what will happen if anything makes it north of Hispaniola.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Looks like the LLC is on a collision course with the highest terrain Hispaniola has to offer, aka "The Shredder". Odds are definitely stacked against Fred right now.

[Frank P]

LLC still there, still well defined.

https://i.imgur.com/OSjg9N7.gif

Sure looks due west in that sat presentation…

[tolakram]

Saved loop

[aspen]

I feel like it’s a coin toss as to whether or not Fred can survive Hispaniola. Due to its ugly decoupled structure, a significant burst of convection to the north of the island caused by land friction could cause the center to reform there, yanking the entire storm off to the north and back over water. Or the island could rip apart both the MLC and LLC, and no reformations occur.

[Frank P]

Saved loop
https://i.imgur.com/X2Pl4i9.gif

Nice convection building near the center, and still looks west to me…

[BobHarlem]

I feel like it’s a coin toss as to whether or not Fred can survive Hispaniola. Due to its ugly decoupled structure, a significant burst of convection to the north of the island caused by land friction could cause the center to reform there, yanking the entire storm off to the north and back over water. Or the island could rip apart both the MLC and LLC, and no reformations occur.

Or it could reform (or stay) to the south closer to the mid level convection, which is what seems to be occurring at the moment. It's already south and west of a lot of the models, including the HWRF. Forget the mona passage, think Windward Passage.

[NDG]

Plenty of west winds, like I said the LLC is still there. Extrap pressure near 1002 mb, down from 1009mb last night.

URNT15 KWBC 111147
NOAA3 0306A FRED HDOB 19 20210811
113800 1801N 06841W 6941 03186 0054 +094 +003 159022 028 050 009 00
113830 1801N 06843W 6943 03184 0050 +098 -001 159021 023 050 005 00
113900 1800N 06845W 6947 03176 0046 +098 +003 162023 026 048 003 00
113930 1759N 06847W 6949 03175 0034 +107 +016 167020 022 050 003 00
114000 1759N 06849W 6946 03179 0039 +104 +031 161024 025 049 001 00
114030 1758N 06851W 6947 03178 0040 +102 +039 150022 024 041 001 00
114100 1757N 06853W 6942 03183 0044 +099 +025 143019 023 041 000 00
114130 1756N 06855W 6947 03177 0046 +099 +013 131013 017 037 000 00
114200 1756N 06857W 6952 03174 0033 +112 -014 144007 011 031 000 00
114230 1755N 06859W 6947 03178 0023 +119 -016 221005 006 019 000 00
114300 1754N 06901W 6951 03174 0021 +122 -015 248003 006 017 000 00
114330 1753N 06903W 6952 03177 0030 +118 -013 297005 006 015 000 00
114400 1751N 06903W 6946 03182 0034 +115 -016 298006 007 015 000 00
114430 1749N 06903W 6944 03184 0045 +105 -018 282008 009 018 000 00
114500 1747N 06903W 6947 03183 0048 +106 -022 292011 012 021 000 00
114530 1744N 06903W 6945 03185 0057 +098 -021 283011 012 024 000 00
114600 1742N 06903W 6951 03183 0064 +095 -017 281011 012 023 000 00
114630 1740N 06903W 6949 03187 0063 +096 -006 287010 011 020 000 00
114700 1738N 06903W 6945 03190 0070 +091 -009 277011 011 019 000 00
114730 1736N 06903W 6948 03189 0073 +092 -015 285011 012 017 000 00

[xironman]

LLC still there, still well defined.

https://i.imgur.com/OSjg9N7.gif

Sure looks due west in that sat presentation…

Looks like the gyre is pulling it.

[jlauderdal]

Even IF Fred does not survive Hispaniola, it could reform over the Gulf of Mexico.

So the hwrf as a hurricane into se florida is off the table?

[InfernoFlameCat]

Even IF Fred does not survive Hispaniola, it could reform over the Gulf of Mexico.

So the hwrf as a hurricane into se florida is off the table?

Yeah probably but always be prepared. It could RI in the Fl straights if it does go far enough north.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Even IF Fred does not survive Hispaniola, it could reform over the Gulf of Mexico.

So the hwrf as a hurricane into se florida is off the table?

I wouldn't say anything is off the table yet. Maybe becoming less likely but odds are definitely not 0. We have to see how it handles Hispaniola.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Pretty clear cut tropical storm on recon. Plenty of westerlies, MSLP of 1002 mb.

[NDG]

[AutoPenalti]

Looks to be west of what the HWRF was forecasting.

[ronjon]

Fred clearly has an LLC as it's mostly naked now, but hardly questionable. I wonder if there will ever be a time when we can predict storms in this area more than 2 days out. I'm still not convinced we know what will happen if anything makes it north of Hispaniola.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Looks like the LLC is on a collision course with the highest terrain Hispaniola has to offer, aka "The Shredder". Odds are definitely stacked against Fred right now.

Actually weak, poorly organized systems tend to reorganize after passing Hispanola because there's little structure of the storm to disrupt. Now in Freds case it will still likely struggle after Hispanola due to dry air and wind shear. I don't think it'll find a more favorable environment until it reaches the Florida straits. All this is good news as Fred is likely to be just a large rain maker for Florida.

[AlphaToOmega]

Fred clearly has an LLC as it's mostly naked now, but hardly questionable. I wonder if there will ever be a time when we can predict storms in this area more than 2 days out. I'm still not convinced we know what will happen if anything makes it north of Hispaniola.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Looks like the LLC is on a collision course with the highest terrain Hispaniola has to offer, aka "The Shredder". Odds are definitely stacked against Fred right now.

Actually weak, poorly organized systems tend to reorganize after passing Hispanola because there's little structure of the storm to disrupt. Now in Freds case it will still likely struggle after Hispanola due to dry air and wind shear. I don't think it'll find a more favorable environment until it reaches the Florida straits. All this is good news as Fred is likely to be just a large rain maker for Florida.

That is not good news. If it reaches the Gulf, it will take full advantage of the loop current.

[NDG]

Looks to be west of what the HWRF was forecasting.

I guess you haven't seen this morning's latest run, it has it even further west than this before coming ashore.