
ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Storm - Discussion
LL Vort will likely get shredded but mid-level vort may survive and reform a LL vort in the Straits.
1 likes
- beoumont
- Category 1
- Posts: 473
- Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2011 4:13 pm
- Location: East Central Florida
- Contact:
Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Storm - Discussion
From the Personification perspective of tropical cyclone behavior: Fred is currently just trying to stay alive by not being forced inland--so he is paralleling the coast for as long as "possible". UNTIl, the flow trying to stear it wins out. Also,it has been observed that the Barahona Peninsula is a hurricane magnet, and pulls storms towards it. The-the-the- That's all folks.
Last edited by beoumont on Wed Aug 11, 2021 8:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes
List of 79 tropical cyclones intercepted by Richard Horodner:
http://www.canebeard.com/page/page/572246.htm
http://www.canebeard.com/page/page/572246.htm
Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Storm - Discussion
The "Fred is Dead" and "I question if it was ever a Tropical Storm" posts have started early this morning. LOL
10 likes
Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Storm - Discussion
N2FSU wrote:The "Fred is Dead" and "I question if it was ever a Tropical Storm" posts have started early this morning. LOL
Sometimes the models are better at predicting these threads than the storms. Wait until Friday.
0 likes
Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Storm - Discussion
How much more evidence do some still need that it has had and still has a closed circulation?


6 likes
Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Storm - Discussion
45 kt FL winds plus the wide range of SFMR values could support an intensity of 40 kt for the 11am advisory.
1 likes
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Fred's LLC is dancing around the eastern tip of D.R. just like it did when it approached eastern P.R. last night.


2 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 9155
- Age: 39
- Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 4030
- Age: 29
- Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
- Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Storm - Discussion
The MLC is likely dragging the LLC south, LLC trying it's hardest to move away from the mountains.
3 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
- Weatherboy1
- Category 5
- Posts: 1189
- Age: 49
- Joined: Mon Jul 05, 2004 1:50 pm
- Location: Jupiter/Sarasota, FL
Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Storm - Discussion
aspen wrote:I feel like it’s a coin toss as to whether or not Fred can survive Hispaniola. Due to its ugly decoupled structure, a significant burst of convection to the north of the island caused by land friction could cause the center to reform there, yanking the entire storm off to the north and back over water. Or the island could rip apart both the MLC and LLC, and no reformations occur.
I don't know if it's lame to just say "Ditto." But agree with this view here.
1 likes
Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Storm - Discussion
AutoPenalti wrote:The MLC is likely dragging the LLC south, LLC trying it's hardest to move away from the mountains.
8am point is fairly well west relative to the forecast track. Fred probably will move inland at some point, but I'm wondering if it will be on or much closer to the Haiti side now, or it just does the weird island shuffle under Hispaniola.
0 likes
- Weatherboy1
- Category 5
- Posts: 1189
- Age: 49
- Joined: Mon Jul 05, 2004 1:50 pm
- Location: Jupiter/Sarasota, FL
Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Really, the next 12 hours are key for Fred's long-term future. Getting closer and closer to the worst of the terrain in Hispanola, and didn't manage to "jump"/reform N/NW yet. Probably worth just turning off the computer and logging back in tonight to see if anything's left (not that any of us will do that, of course! LOL)
5 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 4030
- Age: 29
- Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
- Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Storm - Discussion
It's slowed down considerably since yesterday.
0 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 9155
- Age: 39
- Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am
Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Storm - Discussion
AutoPenalti wrote:It's slowed down considerably since yesterday.
If this makes landfall in DR and heads down the center of the island and moves through Cuba this may not survive as a cyclone into the gulf. Sure, it may redevelop but things don't look good for it if that is the truck it takes.
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 4030
- Age: 29
- Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
- Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Storm - Discussion

Eyeballed the LLC and marked where it is in proximity to Pico Duarte.
0 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
- beoumont
- Category 1
- Posts: 473
- Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2011 4:13 pm
- Location: East Central Florida
- Contact:
Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Storm - Discussion
1 likes
List of 79 tropical cyclones intercepted by Richard Horodner:
http://www.canebeard.com/page/page/572246.htm
http://www.canebeard.com/page/page/572246.htm
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6358
- Age: 62
- Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
- Location: Miramar Bch. FL
Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Storm - Discussion
It's forward speed has slowed for sure this morning and you can bet it suddenly encountered a major slowing of wind flowing into it's northern periphery. I'd imagine the in flow from its southern periphery tugged it more westerly in its forward motion, at least temporarily. Wouldn't surprise me if it dives more WSW for a spell.
0 likes
Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Looks like it is doing it very best to try and keep away from the mountains
0 likes
- InfernoFlameCat
- Category 5
- Posts: 2102
- Age: 22
- Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:52 am
- Location: Buford, GA
Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Storm - Discussion
beoumont wrote:Kind of looks like Fred the duck or do-do bird
[url]https://i.postimg.cc/j28yfPVF/duck.jpg [/url]
Very much reminds me of Elsa with the structure and location. Has that massive blob trailing the partially exposed center.
0 likes
I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 6 guests