2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[AlphaToOmega]

I see the GFS has something develop in the subtropics 222 hours out, but nothing so far is showing up within the next 168 hours. Subtropical development is extremely difficult to forecast, but with a favorable MJO phase, enhanced subtropical development seems likely given the high sea surface temperature anomalies in the subtropical Atlantic.

[Category5Kaiju]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1425475852419096581




Very misleading 6 weeks of quiet.

[captainbarbossa19]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1425475852419096581

Very misleading 6 weeks of quiet.

Systems are struggling to develop right now, but the EPAC is about to shut off which should give the Atlantic more favorable conditions. I never trusted the models saying that it was going to be quiet for so long. They seem to do this every year.

[AlphaToOmega]

[Shell Mound]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1425475852419096581

Very misleading 6 weeks of quiet.

Systems are struggling to develop right now, but the EPAC is about to shut off which should give the Atlantic more favorable conditions. I never trusted the models saying that it was going to be quiet for so long. They seem to do this every year.

I think we have become ensnared in a false dichotomy. The fact that the EPAC is underperforming in terms of the quality of its systems does not in itself portend an active Atlantic season with a high proportion of (major) hurricanes to total named storms. Years such as 1977 featured inactivity in both the Pacific and Atlantic basins. (I am not necessarily comparing 2021 to 1977, but merely pointing out past precedent.) Also, I think we should be more skeptical of weeklies that have proven to be inaccurate in terms of gauging upcoming activity. Neither Fred nor 95L looks to be nearly as impressive as some models initially indicated. Until we actually see signs of hurricane formation in the near future I would look askance at some of these model runs. Real-time forecasting is often just as useful as computerised projections, if not more so. Today we often suffer from excessive data that lead to more “noise” than signal.

[CyclonicFury]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1425475852419096581

Very misleading 6 weeks of quiet.

Systems are struggling to develop right now, but the EPAC is about to shut off which should give the Atlantic more favorable conditions. I never trusted the models saying that it was going to be quiet for so long. They seem to do this every year.

I think we have become ensnared in a false dichotomy. The fact that the EPAC is underperforming in terms of the quality of its systems does not in itself portend an active Atlantic season with a high proportion of (major) hurricanes to total named storms. Years such as 1977 featured inactivity in both the Pacific and Atlantic basins. (I am not necessarily comparing 2021 to 1977, but merely pointing out past precedent.) Also, I think we should be more skeptical of weeklies that have proven to be inaccurate in terms of gauging upcoming activity. Neither Fred nor 95L looks to be nearly as impressive as some models initially indicated. Until we actually see signs of hurricane formation in the near future I would look askance at some of these model runs. Real-time forecasting is often just as useful as computerised projections, if not more so. Today we often suffer from excessive data that lead to more “noise” than signal.

It's only August 11 not September 11. No year since 2010 has had a major hurricane by this point. It seems like you are reaching here being skeptical of activity because Fred hasn't blown up so far.

As for Fred, we don't know what it's going to happen yet in the Gulf. People were season canceling in 2017 when Harvey opened into a wave, and in 2020 when Laura was struggling over the eastern Caribbean. We still have a long way to go. Regardless of how unfavorable the Atlantic may seem to you, the Atlantic is only likely to get more favorable from here as we get closer to the climatological peak.

[captainbarbossa19]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1425475852419096581

Very misleading 6 weeks of quiet.

Systems are struggling to develop right now, but the EPAC is about to shut off which should give the Atlantic more favorable conditions. I never trusted the models saying that it was going to be quiet for so long. They seem to do this every year.

I think we have become ensnared in a false dichotomy. The fact that the EPAC is underperforming in terms of the quality of its systems does not in itself portend an active Atlantic season with a high proportion of (major) hurricanes to total named storms. Years such as 1977 featured inactivity in both the Pacific and Atlantic basins. (I am not necessarily comparing 2021 to 1977, but merely pointing out past precedent.) Also, I think we should be more skeptical of weeklies that have proven to be inaccurate in terms of gauging upcoming activity. Neither Fred nor 95L looks to be nearly as impressive as some models initially indicated. Until we actually see signs of hurricane formation in the near future I would look askance at some of these model runs. Real-time forecasting is often just as useful as computerised projections, if not more so. Today we often suffer from excessive data that lead to more “noise” than signal.

You may have a point about this, but we will not know for sure if this is true until at least October. Things are likely to change greatly between now and mid-September simply due to climatology.

[Teban54]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1425475852419096581

Very misleading 6 weeks of quiet.

Systems are struggling to develop right now, but the EPAC is about to shut off which should give the Atlantic more favorable conditions. I never trusted the models saying that it was going to be quiet for so long. They seem to do this every year.

I think we have become ensnared in a false dichotomy. The fact that the EPAC is underperforming in terms of the quality of its systems does not in itself portend an active Atlantic season with a high proportion of (major) hurricanes to total named storms. Years such as 1977 featured inactivity in both the Pacific and Atlantic basins. (I am not necessarily comparing 2021 to 1977, but merely pointing out past precedent.) Also, I think we should be more skeptical of weeklies that have proven to be inaccurate in terms of gauging upcoming activity. Neither Fred nor 95L looks to be nearly as impressive as some models initially indicated. Until we actually see signs of hurricane formation in the near future I would look askance at some of these model runs. Real-time forecasting is often just as useful as computerised projections, if not more so. Today we often suffer from excessive data that lead to more “noise” than signal.

Remember when some posts from just a few days ago were talking as if Fred would not even form and that the Atlantic would stay quiet till at least August 22?

[Category5Kaiju]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1425475852419096581

Very misleading 6 weeks of quiet.

Systems are struggling to develop right now, but the EPAC is about to shut off which should give the Atlantic more favorable conditions. I never trusted the models saying that it was going to be quiet for so long. They seem to do this every year.

I think we have become ensnared in a false dichotomy. The fact that the EPAC is underperforming in terms of the quality of its systems does not in itself portend an active Atlantic season with a high proportion of (major) hurricanes to total named storms. Years such as 1977 featured inactivity in both the Pacific and Atlantic basins. (I am not necessarily comparing 2021 to 1977, but merely pointing out past precedent.) Also, I think we should be more skeptical of weeklies that have proven to be inaccurate in terms of gauging upcoming activity. Neither Fred nor 95L looks to be nearly as impressive as some models initially indicated. Until we actually see signs of hurricane formation in the near future I would look askance at some of these model runs. Real-time forecasting is often just as useful as computerised projections, if not more so. Today we often suffer from excessive data that lead to more “noise” than signal.

Ok, then if you don’t mind me asking but what do you think of the EPAC then? Do you think it’ll stay very active for a while and rob the Atlantic of its potential? Because from my understanding models, GFS included, have asked off on the number and intensities of storms after Linda quite recently.

[tolakram]

I think we have become ensnared in a false dichotomy. The fact that the EPAC is underperforming in terms of the quality of its systems does not in itself portend an active Atlantic season with a high proportion of (major) hurricanes to total named storms. Years such as 1977 featured inactivity in both the Pacific and Atlantic basins. (I am not necessarily comparing 2021 to 1977, but merely pointing out past precedent.) Also, I think we should be more skeptical of weeklies that have proven to be inaccurate in terms of gauging upcoming activity. Neither Fred nor 95L looks to be nearly as impressive as some models initially indicated. Until we actually see signs of hurricane formation in the near future I would look askance at some of these model runs. Real-time forecasting is often just as useful as computerised projections, if not more so. Today we often suffer from excessive data that lead to more “noise” than signal.

Not incorrect, but too short term. Revisit this in a couple of weeks. I'm numbering these rather than putting dates on them, since dates vary. This is my personal amateurish evaluation and not to be taken as anything scientifically accurate. This evaluation only take space after the storm is gone, not during a storm. If the MDR is dead but storms develop close to land again then ACE might be lower but you won't find me saying it's a slow season. Fred is my #1 here.

1. First development as we near peak season always seems to struggle with a bad background state that has improved enough for storm formation but that's about it. We also need to analyze why it struggled. Background state, or track (islands)?

2. Next system sometimes finds ideal conditions, sometimes also struggles. Inconclusive, usually. Again, background state or track?

3. This one is usually telling. If background conditions have not improved and storms are continuing to struggle it might be fair to say the season will be weaker than forecast, but not always.

4. Usually we are seeing the first major by now, if not sooner. If this one is struggling as well then unless something drastically changes, or the season is unusually backloaded, we're in for a slower season than forecast.

Obviously if we don't make it to #2 by September 1st then we're either in for another record season or it will be slower than forecast.

It only takes one, and none of this is a recipe for letting ones guard down. I feel like I have to say this to avoid knee jerk reactions to any post that dares say a season might be slower than forecast.

[AlphaToOmega]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1425475852419096581

Very misleading 6 weeks of quiet.

Systems are struggling to develop right now, but the EPAC is about to shut off which should give the Atlantic more favorable conditions. I never trusted the models saying that it was going to be quiet for so long. They seem to do this every year.

I think we have become ensnared in a false dichotomy. The fact that the EPAC is underperforming in terms of the quality of its systems does not in itself portend an active Atlantic season with a high proportion of (major) hurricanes to total named storms. Years such as 1977 featured inactivity in both the Pacific and Atlantic basins. (I am not necessarily comparing 2021 to 1977, but merely pointing out past precedent.) Also, I think we should be more skeptical of weeklies that have proven to be inaccurate in terms of gauging upcoming activity. Neither Fred nor 95L looks to be nearly as impressive as some models initially indicated. Until we actually see signs of hurricane formation in the near future I would look askance at some of these model runs. Real-time forecasting is often just as useful as computerised projections, if not more so. Today we often suffer from excessive data that lead to more “noise” than signal.

Might I ask what you think the AMO, TNA, ENSO, PDO, West Africa VP, and EPac VP pattern for this peak season will be?

[BobHarlem]

The rise of season cancel 2021 edition?
 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1425508740363587586

[CyclonicFury]

The rise of season cancel 2021 edition?
https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1425508740363587586

I respect Derek Ortt, but he said the same thing in 2017 when models were showing minimal activity. In addition, while the operational models have shown little to no development at times, the GEFS and EPS ensembles have been quite active. Season canceling because the operational models don't show development often ages poorly.

[toad strangler]

The rise of season cancel 2021 edition?
https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1425508740363587586

Models didn't see squat last year either.

[Category5Kaiju]

Yeah I am still very skeptical of the operational models actually being right and the Atlantic significantly underperforming. This year and a year like 2013 have way more differences than similarities, and unless I actually see it if recent years are any indication we could be in for a year like 2020, 2019, or 2017 where activity suddenly springs to life

[captainbarbossa19]

The rise of season cancel 2021 edition?
https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1425508740363587586

I respect Derek Ortt, but he said the same thing in 2017 when models were showing minimal activity. In addition, while the operational models have shown little to no development at times, the GEFS and EPS ensembles have been quite active. Season canceling because the operational models don't show development often ages poorly.

His post sounds more like he thinks that the models showing a lack of activity is off. He has been repeatedly stating that this season is not going to be another 2013 or 1983 in earlier posts. I am certainly not buying any model runs showing quiet activity after Fred. I think things are about to really get going with 95L and waves to follow.

[AlphaToOmega]

The tropical Atlantic is currently dominated by a monsoon trough with northeasterly and southwesterly flow, but there is an ITCZ with northeasterly and southeasterly flow. The monsoon trough should keep the Atlantic convectively active for a while.

[tolakram]

For fun, 2015 - 2021 (so far) from wikipedia

[Monsoonjr99]

-snip-
Also, I think we should be more skeptical of weeklies that have proven to be inaccurate in terms of gauging upcoming activity. Neither Fred nor 95L looks to be nearly as impressive as some models initially indicated. Until we actually see signs of hurricane formation in the near future I would look askance at some of these model runs. Real-time forecasting is often just as useful as computerised projections, if not more so. Today we often suffer from excessive data that lead to more “noise” than signal.

It's funny that you bring up the value of nowcasting over models immediately after writing off Fred and 95L because models aren't as bullish as before, when both systems have plenty of time left for surprises. Model error goes both ways, and we've seen plenty of times before models being giddy on a system early before becoming bearish or even dropping it completely, only for the system to defy newer expectations and blow up. We just gotta wait and see...

[captainbarbossa19]

For fun, 2015 - 2021 (so far) from wikipedia

https://i.imgur.com/0u7SQXY.png
https://i.imgur.com/LUQ69Si.png
https://i.imgur.com/qs4tUbB.png
https://i.imgur.com/q2NFh76.png
https://i.imgur.com/OOO2atD.png
https://i.imgur.com/A4f48jr.png
https://i.imgur.com/N227Aan.png

Notice that for every season, the first major hurricane formed on or after August 20th. In fact, the majority of hurricanes formed after then too. The past six years all had different pattern setups, but all they all shared the majority of activity taking place after August 20th. It is likely only a matter of 1-2 weeks before we see our first major develop.