ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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ConvergenceZone
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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#921 Postby ConvergenceZone » Wed Aug 11, 2021 11:14 am

SFLcane wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
Clearing the path for what is a worrisome 95L.


I'm not worried one bit about 95L. But then, I'm in Houston... Even if I was where you live, I wouldn't be too concerned about it.


Care to explain why? Will be under favorable conditions and driven west by high pressure. Have you seen the European ensemble guidance? Either way back to Fred.



Regarding 95L, it's Because WXMan is Bearish with ALL potential storms that form OR might form.......You should know that by now :).......I've learned though, as I dont' take any of his posts seriously anymore, but just view as good Bearish entertainment/comedy :)...
Last edited by ConvergenceZone on Wed Aug 11, 2021 11:24 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#922 Postby Chemmers » Wed Aug 11, 2021 11:17 am

Never right off Mother Nature, guess we all have to wait and see how the mountains effect Fred
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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#923 Postby Kohlecane » Wed Aug 11, 2021 11:32 am

ConvergenceZone wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
I'm not worried one bit about 95L. But then, I'm in Houston... Even if I was where you live, I wouldn't be too concerned about it.


Care to explain why? Will be under favorable conditions and driven west by high pressure. Have you seen the European ensemble guidance? Either way back to Fred.



Regarding 95L, it's Because WXMan is Bearish with ALL potential storms that form OR might form.......You should know that by now :).......I've learned though, as I dont' take any of his posts seriously anymore, but just view as good Bearish entertainment/comedy :)...

Hey but that's what makes these pages fun! :cheesy:
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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#924 Postby StormPyrate » Wed Aug 11, 2021 11:35 am

ConvergenceZone wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
I'm not worried one bit about 95L. But then, I'm in Houston... Even if I was where you live, I wouldn't be too concerned about it.


Care to explain why? Will be under favorable conditions and driven west by high pressure. Have you seen the European ensemble guidance? Either way back to Fred.



Regarding 95L, it's Because WXMan is Bearish with ALL potential storms that form OR might form.......You should know that by now :).......I've learned though, as I dont' take any of his posts seriously anymore, but just view as good Bearish entertainment/comedy :)...

I find his observations to be accurate more times than not, refreshing over the -removed- that happens here
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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#925 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Wed Aug 11, 2021 11:43 am

ConvergenceZone wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
I'm not worried one bit about 95L. But then, I'm in Houston... Even if I was where you live, I wouldn't be too concerned about it.


Care to explain why? Will be under favorable conditions and driven west by high pressure. Have you seen the European ensemble guidance? Either way back to Fred.



Regarding 95L, it's Because WXMan is Bearish with ALL potential storms that form OR might form.......You should know that by now :).......I've learned though, as I dont' take any of his posts seriously anymore, but just view as good Bearish entertainment/comedy :)...


WXMan's posts balance out the insane HWRF-inspired posts I see on here sometimes.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#926 Postby ConvergenceZone » Wed Aug 11, 2021 11:53 am

StormPyrate wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
Care to explain why? Will be under favorable conditions and driven west by high pressure. Have you seen the European ensemble guidance? Either way back to Fred.



Regarding 95L, it's Because WXMan is Bearish with ALL potential storms that form OR might form.......You should know that by now :).......I've learned though, as I dont' take any of his posts seriously anymore, but just view as good Bearish entertainment/comedy :)...

I find his observations to be accurate more times than not, refreshing over the -removed- that happens here

They are accurate as long as the forecast is "bearish" for a particular storm, then yes, you are 100% correct...
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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#927 Postby Teban54 » Wed Aug 11, 2021 11:56 am

Is it just me, or does Fred look even better as its LLC reaches the coast? Looks like the huge convective blob to the SE that was its MLC/CDO has died and new convection started popping up right over the LLC.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#928 Postby psyclone » Wed Aug 11, 2021 11:58 am

To the extent I am -removed- with Fred...it is a hope for a robust offshore wind along the FL west coast to help disburse the red tide blooms. Even that may be wishful thinking. I'm just waiting to see if we have a coherent disturbance beyond Great Inagua. If we do we have a shot. BTW can we go from a TS back to a PTC? That seems like more than a possibility here.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#929 Postby AdamFirst » Wed Aug 11, 2021 12:03 pm

Fred going to push onshore here soon. Don't be surprised if the low level circulation nudges up against the tall mountains to the east and avoids a direct shred on the tall peaks. It's still not going to be a good day for Fred regardless.

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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#930 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Wed Aug 11, 2021 12:04 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
I'm not worried one bit about 95L. But then, I'm in Houston... Even if I was where you live, I wouldn't be too concerned about it.


Care to explain why? Will be under favorable conditions and driven west by high pressure. Have you seen the European ensemble guidance? Either way back to Fred.



Regarding 95L, it's Because WXMan is Bearish with ALL potential storms that form OR might form.......You should know that by now :).......I've learned though, as I dont' take any of his posts seriously anymore, but just view as good Bearish entertainment/comedy :)...

He wasn’t bearish with Irma.
If he is concerned about a storm, then you better start listening to him. Also his forecast for this storm was not bearish, not at all. He isn’t bearish, we are all Bullish.
Last edited by InfernoFlameCat on Wed Aug 11, 2021 12:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#931 Postby TallyTracker » Wed Aug 11, 2021 12:04 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
I'm not worried one bit about 95L. But then, I'm in Houston... Even if I was where you live, I wouldn't be too concerned about it.


Care to explain why? Will be under favorable conditions and driven west by high pressure. Have you seen the European ensemble guidance? Either way back to Fred.



Regarding 95L, it's Because WXMan is Bearish with ALL potential storms that form OR might form.......You should know that by now :).......I've learned though, as I dont' take any of his posts seriously anymore, but just view as good Bearish entertainment/comedy :)...


That’s not entirely correct. Most of his posts are serious meteorlogical observations from his wealth of experience. He does make mistakes as all human forecasters do, but he’s very accurate most of the time. He does joke around about wanting a storm to go away so it won’t ruin his vacation time, but to write off many of his posts expressing doubt about a storm’s potential isn’t a good way to look the insight he presents. :) Just wanted to throw that out there!
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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#932 Postby Jr0d » Wed Aug 11, 2021 12:10 pm

gatorcane wrote:Stepping back and looking at the big picture, Fred is so tiny you can barely make him out. With the convection firing off to the north over the Atlantic, really just looks like a strong wave axis with an embedded low. No concern from me on Fred still, just a typical weak storm / wave which can be expected this time of year. Rain chances increase for Florida for the weekend.

https://i.postimg.cc/4dMR6tnF/goes16-vis-swir-atl.gif


When I zoom out, I see a trough axis too that goes to about 25N. I do not see how the LLC can survive, even if it stays south and remains intact past Hispaniola, it will run into Cuba's eastern mountains.

The HWRF is now showing the low jump north over Hispaniola, but keeps what's left of Fred ragged...at least until tomorrow.

I do not see Fred surviving unless the center relocates north, with the trough axis associated with Fred extending well north of Hispaniola this is a possibility, though I think it will most likely ripped apart and will be an open wave until it reaches S Florida/the Straits where it might have a window to redevelop.
Last edited by Jr0d on Wed Aug 11, 2021 12:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#933 Postby ConvergenceZone » Wed Aug 11, 2021 12:13 pm

InfernoFlameCat wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
Care to explain why? Will be under favorable conditions and driven west by high pressure. Have you seen the European ensemble guidance? Either way back to Fred.



Regarding 95L, it's Because WXMan is Bearish with ALL potential storms that form OR might form.......You should know that by now :).......I've learned though, as I dont' take any of his posts seriously anymore, but just view as good Bearish entertainment/comedy :)...

He wasn’t bearish with Irma.
If he is concerned about a storm, then you better start listening to him. Also his forecast for this storm was not bearish, not at all. He isn’t bearish, we are all Bullish.


I'll give ya that one...but he even admitted about a month back that he use to be more gung-ho when it comes to storms but after seeing the destruction and seeing so many people's lives affected by it, that he now takes the "bearish" approach when it comes to storms...So he even admitted it....I don't blame him there, but there are times when storms look very bullish and strong in development, and you got to call it like it is, as much as it hurts to say that you a see a monster coming out of so and so storm......
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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#934 Postby NDG » Wed Aug 11, 2021 12:17 pm

Santo Domingo stopped reporting over an hour ago, last report showed winds gusting to 47 mph.

METAR for: MDSD (Santo Domingo/Americ, DN, DR)
Text: MDSD 111600Z 09024G41KT 6000 RA FEW012CB BKN014 OVC070 24/23 Q1011 CB/ALL QDS
Temperature: 24.0°C ( 75°F)
Dewpoint: 23.0°C ( 73°F) [RH = 94%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.85 inches Hg (1011.0 mb)
Winds: from the E (90 degrees) at 28 MPH (24 knots; 12.3 m/s) gusting to 47 MPH (41 knots; 21.1 m/s)
Visibility: 4 sm ( 6 km)
Ceiling: 1400 feet AGL
Clouds: few clouds at 1200 feet AGL, broken clouds at 1400 feet AGL, overcast cloud deck at 7000 feet AGL
Weather: RA DS (moderate rain, duststorm)
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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#935 Postby AtlanticWind » Wed Aug 11, 2021 12:18 pm

I must be on the wrong thread, I thought this was about Fred but seems to be the wxman 57 thread.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#936 Postby cheezyWXguy » Wed Aug 11, 2021 12:20 pm

InfernoFlameCat wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
Care to explain why? Will be under favorable conditions and driven west by high pressure. Have you seen the European ensemble guidance? Either way back to Fred.



Regarding 95L, it's Because WXMan is Bearish with ALL potential storms that form OR might form.......You should know that by now :).......I've learned though, as I dont' take any of his posts seriously anymore, but just view as good Bearish entertainment/comedy :)...

He wasn’t bearish with Irma.
If he is concerned about a storm, then you better start listening to him. Also his forecast for this storm was not bearish, not at all. He isn’t bearish, we are all Bullish.

This is the right outlook imo. He doesn’t always sound the alarm bells up front on storms that eventually warrant it, but in the comparatively few times he does, it is very well warranted. Cautious outlooks are the name of the game in weather forecasting, and his track record is more than enough to justify that approach.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#937 Postby Craters » Wed Aug 11, 2021 12:20 pm

AdamFirst wrote:Fred going to push onshore here soon. Don't be surprised if the low level circulation nudges up against the tall mountains to the east and avoids a direct shred on the tall peaks. It's still not going to be a good day for Fred regardless.]

Or for Hispaniola...
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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#938 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 11, 2021 12:23 pm

GET BACK ON TOPIC PLEASE! Thanks.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#939 Postby AdamFirst » Wed Aug 11, 2021 12:24 pm

Craters wrote:
AdamFirst wrote:Fred going to push onshore here soon. Don't be surprised if the low level circulation nudges up against the tall mountains to the east and avoids a direct shred on the tall peaks. It's still not going to be a good day for Fred regardless.]

Or for Hispaniola...


That is true as well. Luckily the Dominican Republic is not as heavily deforested as Haiti is, and can soak in more rainfall on the higher peaks.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#940 Postby NDG » Wed Aug 11, 2021 12:24 pm

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