AxaltaRacing24 wrote:In 2020/2021 modeling, if the Euro even shows a closed low, that’s a sign that something will likely get going.
Did the last Euro just take 95L on a fishing expedition? So much spread so far, but expected this far out.
ATL: GRACE - Models
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Re: ATL: 95L - Models
Did the last Euro just take 95L on a fishing expedition? So much spread so far, but expected this far out.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: 95L - Models
OP GFS and Euro take this right through the Greater Antilles, while the CMC and ICON go north into the Bahamas, and the HWRF-P has it go south.
While the GFS refuses to show development, it actually has a very favorable environment in 48hr, with the sounding at 15.07N/47.20W showing shear of under 10 kt and 300-850mb RH values of around 90%. This seems like it’ll be a great environment for something to spin up, or intensify if it has already closed off.
While the GFS refuses to show development, it actually has a very favorable environment in 48hr, with the sounding at 15.07N/47.20W showing shear of under 10 kt and 300-850mb RH values of around 90%. This seems like it’ll be a great environment for something to spin up, or intensify if it has already closed off.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: 95L - Models
GEFS
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Re: ATL: 95L - Models
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Spacecoast
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Re: ATL: 95L - Models
12z ECMF. Ensemble mean and Operational looking at Florida.
12z GEFS starting to show some members, but Operational (ANVO) drops @54 hr near 45W
(white is consensus of GEFS + Global)
12z GEFS starting to show some members, but Operational (ANVO) drops @54 hr near 45W
(white is consensus of GEFS + Global)
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Re: ATL: 95L - Models
I really hope we finally get the first HWRF run at 18z. I’m surprised it hasn’t started running with 95L yet; it’s been designated for over a day now.
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Re: ATL: 95L - Models
Spacecoast wrote:12z ECMF. Ensemble mean and Operational looking at Florida.
[url]https://i.ibb.co/PWVSwbF/ecmdj.jpg [/url]
12z GEFS starting to show some members, but Operational (ANVO) drops @54 hr near 45W
[url]https://i.ibb.co/WzhYMzY/ecmdk.jpg [/url]
(white is consensus of GEFS + Global)
[url]https://i.ibb.co/Z2JPTcJ/ecmdl.jpg [/url]
Looks like it wants to take the same track as Fred.
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Hurricaneman
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Re: ATL: 95L - Models
Cpv17 wrote:Spacecoast wrote:12z ECMF. Ensemble mean and Operational looking at Florida.
[url]https://i.ibb.co/PWVSwbF/ecmdj.jpg [/url]
12z GEFS starting to show some members, but Operational (ANVO) drops @54 hr near 45W
[url]https://i.ibb.co/WzhYMzY/ecmdk.jpg [/url]
(white is consensus of GEFS + Global)
[url]https://i.ibb.co/Z2JPTcJ/ecmdl.jpg [/url]
Looks like it wants to take the same track as Fred.
If I’m looking at the models the Euro and ensembles have been pretty steady while the GFS and it’s ensembles have been all over the place so my guess is this will be north of Hispaniola and about 30mi north of Fred’s path
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Re: ATL: 95L - Models
18z GFS still keeps this as an open wave despite up to 4 days of favorable conditions before reaching the islands.
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Re: ATL: 95L - Models
HWRF is running for 95L. Let’s see how bonkers this gets.
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: 95L - Models
aspen wrote:HWRF is running for 95L. Let’s see how bonkers this gets.
Also running is HMON.
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Re: ATL: 95L - Models
cycloneye wrote:aspen wrote:HWRF is running for 95L. Let’s see how bonkers this gets.
Also running is HMON.
Both are really struggling to close 95L’s circulation, and I don’t know why. Maybe some dry air from the north keeps getting into it from time to time? The environment otherwise looks favorable, and there are decent moisture pockets in both runs.
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Re: ATL: 95L - Models
No development on the HWRF.
No development on the HMON.
No development on the 18z GFS.
What are these models seeing that prevents this from closing off?
No development on the HMON.
No development on the 18z GFS.
What are these models seeing that prevents this from closing off?
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Stormybajan
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Re: ATL: 95L - Models
aspen wrote:No development on the HWRF.
No development on the HMON.
No development on the 18z GFS.
What are these models seeing that prevents this from closing off?
I'm thinking models are maybe picking up conditions not being as favorable as we think? Theres a pretty decent SAL outbreak to the north of 95L so maybe that? idk NHC raised chances to 30/60 so they are still expecting development. Maybe Euro will retake its crown if 95L develops east of the islands
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Re: ATL: 95L - Models
aspen wrote:No development on the HWRF.
No development on the HMON.
No development on the 18z GFS.
What are these models seeing that prevents this from closing off?
SAL and low MJO phase
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AxaltaRacing24
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Re: ATL: 95L - Models
2004? This would be the third Florida landfall if the ICON had its way.
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: 95L - Models
Conditions aren’t favorable because of drier lower levels, it’s displayed pretty noticeably in the water vapor loops.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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Re: ATL: 95L - Models
Hugo1989 wrote:aspen wrote:No development on the HWRF.
No development on the HMON.
No development on the 18z GFS.
What are these models seeing that prevents this from closing off?
SAL and low MJO phase
MJO phase is conducive for development…
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