ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

Higher rez SLIDER visible

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=1016.5&y=1078.5&z=3&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=band_02&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

[AtlanticWind]

I dont where the center is but the cloud mass is moving nnw right now on visible

[wwizard]

I'm just glad this season is much slower than last year....If memory serves me correctly we were much further than the 'F' storm the middle of last August. Looks like this might be a normal season for a change....

Not that much slower. On August 11 last year, TD 11 had just formed. It would go on to become Josephine. We’re just 4 storms behind last year’s pace.

[SFLcane]

Expecting eastward adjustment to nhc track at 5pm

[captainbarbossa19]

I'm just glad this season is much slower than last year....If memory serves me correctly we were much further than the 'F' storm the middle of last August. Looks like this might be a normal season for a change....

Not that much slower. On August 11 last year, TD 11 had just formed. It would go on to become Josephine. We’re just 4 storms behind last year’s pace.

We also already had a hurricane form. Even though it was minimal, that still does not happen every year by this point.

On a different note, it amazes me that Fred is the second storm to impact Hispaniola now and we may be looking at a potential third.

[Category5Kaiju]

I'm just glad this season is much slower than last year....If memory serves me correctly we were much further than the 'F' storm the middle of last August. Looks like this might be a normal season for a change....

you jinxed it. We will now proceed to have 60 NS this year.

Ok, so yeah we’re going to exhaust the auxiliary list this year and have to resort to using nearly all of the List 2 names as well after that.

[AtlanticWind]

I'm just glad this season is much slower than last year....If memory serves me correctly we were much further than the 'F' storm the middle of last August. Looks like this might be a normal season for a change....

2/3 of storms form aftet sept 1st , so we have no idea if this is a "normal season yet"

Back to Fred , see a possibility this "jumps" the D.R. but way too soon to know.

[aspen]

Seems like it might emerge back over water within the next 10 hours or so, judging by where I think its LLC is.

[Nimbus]

Looks like only the mid level center will survive the mountains, in that scenario it may take a couple days before it can redevelop a low level center if at all.

[Blown Away]

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... aw_width=6

Low level clouds making a NNW jump/wobble. Clearly the decoupling is occurring now.

[ElectricStorm]

I wouldn't be surprised if this becomes a remnant low but I also think it's going to try to get its act together in the gulf if it doesn't interact with Cuba

[xironman]

The MLC seems to booking across the island pretty well. Question is does it develop once it can.

[AutoPenalti]

The MLC seems to booking across the island pretty well. Question is does it develop once it can.

The MLC can survive this. It's the LLC that won't.

[Sciencerocks]

[Kohlecane]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/6087/hpPWos.gif

More noticeable NW/NNW jog In the last few frames IMO

[tropicwatch]

Seems like it might emerge back over water within the next 10 hours or so, judging by where I think its LLC is.

Was just doing some calculating give the speed the NHC has it moving and the distance it needs to travel. It could be back over water around midnight.

[Kohlecane]

Seems like it might emerge back over water within the next 10 hours or so, judging by where I think its LLC is.

Was just doing some calculating give the speed the NHC has it moving and the distance it needs to travel. It could be back over water around midnight.

hmm.. Similar timing of the HWRF 12Z

[SoupBone]

I'm just glad this season is much slower than last year....If memory serves me correctly we were much further than the 'F' storm the middle of last August. Looks like this might be a normal season for a change....

Not that much slower. On August 11 last year, TD 11 had just formed. It would go on to become Josephine. We’re just 4 storms behind last year’s pace.

In the world of tropical system development, 4 is actually quite a bit.

[AxaltaRacing24]

I'm just glad this season is much slower than last year....If memory serves me correctly we were much further than the 'F' storm the middle of last August. Looks like this might be a normal season for a change....

Considering we are coming off a season that had the most storms in recorded history, I'd expect this one to feel just a bit slower. However, this season is looking to be above average too most likely, just not a 2005 or 2020.

[Nimbus]

I wouldn't be surprised if this becomes a remnant low but I also think it's going to try to get its act together in the gulf if it doesn't interact with Cuba

If the 12Z HWRF track is correct it stays north of Cuba and makes landfall in South Florida.
That might mean just a TS or Cat 1 hurricane tracking NW across Florida to the gulf.
GFS runs have been showing more land interaction with Cuba so not much left to develop.
If the actual track ends up staying off Cuba and tracks into the gulf then we have a worse situation.

The Mona Passage jump didn't happen today, and that was only 12 hours out so I'm just being patient to see where this exits Hispaniola.