ATL: FRED - Models

[Cat5James]

My 20+ years of tracking storms in sofla, the current NHC track and their recent stellar performance. However, if I am wrong its still a win because doubling my donation to s2k is money well spent, after last nights outage maybe the funds would help .

Bottom line is I have far more confidence in myself and the NHC than I do the HWRF which is basically what I am betting against. The intensity is overcooked because the track is wrong, we will know tomorrow if the HWRF stands a chance.

Does the fact that the 12Z Euro just shifted North East as well concern you at all?

He still wins as Fred recurves off the coast.

... no it doesn't ... literally cuts thru the entire state of FL

[AxaltaRacing24]

Does the fact that the 12Z Euro just shifted North East as well concern you at all?

He still wins as Fred recurves off the coast.

... no it doesn't ... literally cuts thru the entire state of FL

So many forecasts have been such headaches in the last 2 years.

[tolakram]

Does the fact that the 12Z Euro just shifted North East as well concern you at all?

He still wins as Fred recurves off the coast.

... no it doesn't ... literally cuts thru the entire state of FL

I didn't say it did, I was joking and also implying that we've been here before and have seen storms end up east of Florida. I do not trust any model guidance in this area, period.

[jlauderdal]

Dade County is in the three day cone. Where is your confidence coming from?

My 20+ years of tracking storms in sofla, the current NHC track and their recent stellar performance. However, if I am wrong its still a win because doubling my donation to s2k is money well spent, after last nights outage maybe the funds would help .

Bottom line is I have far more confidence in myself and the NHC than I do the HWRF which is basically what I am betting against. The intensity is overcooked because the track is wrong, we will know tomorrow if the HWRF stands a chance.

Does the fact that the 12Z Euro just shifted North East as well concern you at all?

Not at all because the hwrf has a similar track. The bottom line is the NHC has far more firepower at their disposal than the individual models and thus their tracks are are far better than the models. The NHC might bring their track a little to the right but they didn't budge with Elsa when the HWRF and Euro were doing this same thing in a similar location. If I'm wrong, it's a $100 win for S2K and that is ok in my book.

[ronjon]

I will double my 2021 donation to S2K if Dade, Broward or Plam Beach Counties get a landfalling hurricane named Fred this year. I am extremely confident in the NHC current track keeping it away from said counties.

Dade County is in the three day cone. Where is your confidence coming from?

My 20+ years of tracking storms in sofla, the current NHC track and their recent stellar performance. However, if I am wrong its still a win because doubling my donation to s2k is money well spent, after last nights outage maybe the funds would help .

Bottom line is I have far more confidence in myself and the NHC than I do the HWRF which is basically what I am betting against. The intensity is overcooked because the track is wrong, we will know tomorrow if the HWRF stands a chance.

Well 12z Euro is dead on 12z HWRFs track for a Miami hit in 72 hours - but I'm with ya, HWRF always seems to overdo intensity.

[AtlanticWind]

From the 11am disscussion

However, some adjustments to the track may be necessary as the center interacts with the mountains of Hispaniola during the next 12-24 hours.

[Stormcenter]

I think I’m with the GFS that Fred for whatever reason
doesn’t become very strong.

[jlauderdal]

Dade County is in the three day cone. Where is your confidence coming from?

My 20+ years of tracking storms in sofla, the current NHC track and their recent stellar performance. However, if I am wrong its still a win because doubling my donation to s2k is money well spent, after last nights outage maybe the funds would help .

Bottom line is I have far more confidence in myself and the NHC than I do the HWRF which is basically what I am betting against. The intensity is overcooked because the track is wrong, we will know tomorrow if the HWRF stands a chance.

Well 12z Euro is dead on 12z HWRFs track for a Miami hit in 72 hours - but I'm with ya, HWRF always seems to overdo intensity.

Let's see how the gfs does on the next run and really what the NHC says in the disco because if there is something to the hwrf and euro they will say it. I would never completely throw out the hwrf because it does have a few wins and then with euro support it needs to be taken seriously even the euro has been far from a king recently. Also, the track the system is taking is far from ideal for producing a landfilling hurricane in southeast florida.

[Blown Away]

12z EURO significant E shift into SFL in 72 hours, big for that models standards in short term. Models definitely sniffing a center reform farther N after Hispaniola.

[BobHarlem]

12z EURO significant E shift into SFL in 72 hours, big for that models standards in short term. Models definitely sniffing a center reform farther N after Hispaniola.

Today is such a wildcard for both intensity and track because of Hispaniola. I also "love" the Euro for wanting to bring 95L into Florida only a few days after Fred.

[Hurricane Mike]

The HMON shows a direct landfall of (likely a hurricane) into Mobile Bay.

[jlauderdal]

My 20+ years of tracking storms in sofla, the current NHC track and their recent stellar performance. However, if I am wrong its still a win because doubling my donation to s2k is money well spent, after last nights outage maybe the funds would help .

Bottom line is I have far more confidence in myself and the NHC than I do the HWRF which is basically what I am betting against. The intensity is overcooked because the track is wrong, we will know tomorrow if the HWRF stands a chance.

Well 12z Euro is dead on 12z HWRFs track for a Miami hit in 72 hours - but I'm with ya, HWRF always seems to overdo intensity.

Let's see how the gfs does on the next run and really what the NHC says in the disco because if there is something to the hwrf and euro they will say it. I would never completely throw out the hwrf because it does have a few wins and then with euro support it needs to be taken seriously even the euro has been far from a king recently. Also, the track the system is taking is far from ideal for producing a landfilling hurricane in southeast florida.

The NHC mentioned the eastern models but didn't move the track which isn't surprising as they would need to see more plus they have the gfs coming up and of course you can never ignore the real weather that is actually happening. 20% chance euro and hwrf verify for a SE Florida hit which is a little higher than I had it earlier this afternoon.

[eastcoastFL]

[eastcoastFL]

Well 12z Euro is dead on 12z HWRFs track for a Miami hit in 72 hours - but I'm with ya, HWRF always seems to overdo intensity.

Let's see how the gfs does on the next run and really what the NHC says in the disco because if there is something to the hwrf and euro they will say it. I would never completely throw out the hwrf because it does have a few wins and then with euro support it needs to be taken seriously even the euro has been far from a king recently. Also, the track the system is taking is far from ideal for producing a landfilling hurricane in southeast florida.

The NHC mentioned the eastern models but didn't move the track which isn't surprising as they would need to see more plus they have the gfs coming up and of course you can never ignore the real weather that is actually happening. 20% chance euro and hwrf verify for a SE Florida hit which is a little higher than I had it earlier this afternoon.

They said there were very minor adjustments to track. Which is interesting as they do note how one set of models shows a peninsula strike and the others don’t

***The track
guidance becomes a bit divergent during this time, with the ECMWF,
Canadian, and HWRF models showing a track near or over the Florida
Peninsula, while the GFS, UKMET, and HMON models show the center
passing south and west of the Florida Keys, followed by a more
northward motion over the Gulf of Mexico. The new forecast track
is between these extremes, and it has only minor adjustments from
the previous NHC track.***

[jlauderdal]

Let's see how the gfs does on the next run and really what the NHC says in the disco because if there is something to the hwrf and euro they will say it. I would never completely throw out the hwrf because it does have a few wins and then with euro support it needs to be taken seriously even the euro has been far from a king recently. Also, the track the system is taking is far from ideal for producing a landfilling hurricane in southeast florida.

The NHC mentioned the eastern models but didn't move the track which isn't surprising as they would need to see more plus they have the gfs coming up and of course you can never ignore the real weather that is actually happening. 20% chance euro and hwrf verify for a SE Florida hit which is a little higher than I had it earlier this afternoon.

They said there were very minor adjustments to track. Which is interesting as they do note how one set of models shows a peninsula strike and the others don’t

***The track
guidance becomes a bit divergent during this time, with the ECMWF,
Canadian, and HWRF models showing a track near or over the Florida
Peninsula, while the GFS, UKMET, and HMON models show the center
passing south and west of the Florida Keys, followed by a more
northward motion over the Gulf of Mexico. The new forecast track
is between these extremes, and it has only minor adjustments from
the previous NHC track.***

if we see the GFS on the next run move east then we really need to be concerned because the eastern track idea is favoring more intensity which in itself seems a bit odd but less shear on the easterly track...we really don't know much until it exits the islands

[AxaltaRacing24]

Well 12z Euro is dead on 12z HWRFs track for a Miami hit in 72 hours - but I'm with ya, HWRF always seems to overdo intensity.

Let's see how the gfs does on the next run and really what the NHC says in the disco because if there is something to the hwrf and euro they will say it. I would never completely throw out the hwrf because it does have a few wins and then with euro support it needs to be taken seriously even the euro has been far from a king recently. Also, the track the system is taking is far from ideal for producing a landfilling hurricane in southeast florida.

The NHC mentioned the eastern models but didn't move the track which isn't surprising as they would need to see more plus they have the gfs coming up and of course you can never ignore the real weather that is actually happening. 20% chance euro and hwrf verify for a SE Florida hit which is a little higher than I had it earlier this afternoon.

Check the ICON out

[jlauderdal]

Let's see how the gfs does on the next run and really what the NHC says in the disco because if there is something to the hwrf and euro they will say it. I would never completely throw out the hwrf because it does have a few wins and then with euro support it needs to be taken seriously even the euro has been far from a king recently. Also, the track the system is taking is far from ideal for producing a landfilling hurricane in southeast florida.

The NHC mentioned the eastern models but didn't move the track which isn't surprising as they would need to see more plus they have the gfs coming up and of course you can never ignore the real weather that is actually happening. 20% chance euro and hwrf verify for a SE Florida hit which is a little higher than I had it earlier this afternoon.

Check the ICON out

https://i.postimg.cc/02thRRYT/icon-mslp-pcpn-watl-28.png

Nice break in the ridge to get into SE Florida, will see if it materializes on the gfs...its a broken record but its amazing how much the models struggle with the ridge even with numerous missions(not with free) but the NHC seems to have been able to overcome this issue with their forecasting and is able to see through it

[Blown Away]

Let's see how the gfs does on the next run and really what the NHC says in the disco because if there is something to the hwrf and euro they will say it. I would never completely throw out the hwrf because it does have a few wins and then with euro support it needs to be taken seriously even the euro has been far from a king recently. Also, the track the system is taking is far from ideal for producing a landfilling hurricane in southeast florida.

The NHC mentioned the eastern models but didn't move the track which isn't surprising as they would need to see more plus they have the gfs coming up and of course you can never ignore the real weather that is actually happening. 20% chance euro and hwrf verify for a SE Florida hit which is a little higher than I had it earlier this afternoon.

Check the ICON out

https://i.postimg.cc/02thRRYT/icon-mslp-pcpn-watl-28.png

First model run in a while that suggests/comes close to Fred going E of Florida...

[tolakram]

Track errors so far.



source: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al062021/

[Blown Away]

18z GFS 96 Hours... Decent shift E and into SFL...