ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1021 Postby nativefloridian » Wed Aug 11, 2021 4:43 pm

Maybe it's my eyes from looking at so many satellite loops, but it appears Fred is expanding his convection field as he's crossing the D.R. Can't wait to see how he looks tomorrow morning! :double:
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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1022 Postby Chemmers » Wed Aug 11, 2021 4:45 pm

Look very similar to Laura when it went across Cuba, wondering if Fred will hold up the same?
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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1023 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 11, 2021 4:45 pm

Saved Upper level WV loop. How fast will the upper low over Florida retreat / wash out?

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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1024 Postby BobHarlem » Wed Aug 11, 2021 5:33 pm

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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1025 Postby Blown Away » Wed Aug 11, 2021 5:59 pm

I can’t post satellite link. On visible is that the LLC about to exit NW Haiti??

Maybe somebody could post the last few visible frames before it gets dark, you can see a naked circulation shooting off the NW Haiti coast. I think it is.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1026 Postby Jr0d » Wed Aug 11, 2021 6:07 pm

Blown Away wrote:I can’t post satellite link. On visible is that the LLC about to exit NW Haiti??

Visible:
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined

Nighttime micro physics:

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined

Important bookmarks for hurricane season!

The NE side is over water but void of convection, while the other half over land is going strong.

Looks like Fred will survive Hispaniola but will struggle until Friday, I'm my amateur opinion.

However there is a chance Fred could find favorable conditions Friday and pull itself together quickly.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1027 Postby Woofde » Wed Aug 11, 2021 6:09 pm

Blown Away wrote:I can’t post satellite link. On visible is that the LLC about to exit NW Haiti??

Maybe somebody could post the last few visible frames before it gets dark, you can see a naked circulation shooting off the NW Haiti coast. I think it is.
It does have quite a bit of spin. If it is the LLC then Fred is very discoupled right now.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1028 Postby Nimbus » Wed Aug 11, 2021 6:09 pm

Blown Away wrote:I can’t post satellite link. On visible is that the LLC about to exit NW Haiti??

Maybe somebody could post the last few visible frames before it gets dark, you can see a naked circulation shooting off the NW Haiti coast. I think it is.


Wind out of the west near Manzanillo bay but that may be a naked swirl that doesn't pick up any convection if it is moving too fast.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1029 Postby Woofde » Wed Aug 11, 2021 6:30 pm

Convection still looks rather impressive considering it is over land. It wouldn't be suprising to see it die down soon though.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1030 Postby toad strangler » Wed Aug 11, 2021 6:32 pm

Woofde wrote:Convection still looks rather impressive considering it is over land. It wouldn't be suprising to see it die down soon though.


Land is one thing. Ten thousand foot tall mountains are another ... :blowup:
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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1031 Postby aspen » Wed Aug 11, 2021 6:33 pm

Woofde wrote:Convection still looks rather impressive considering it is over land. It wouldn't be suprising to see it die down soon though.

Looks like that convection is generated by friction with the tallest mountains of Hispaniola. I’m wondering if those bursts might try to drag whatever circulation is left further south.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1032 Postby tropicwatch » Wed Aug 11, 2021 6:35 pm

Is Kermit doing a high altitude flight? I didn't see one scheduled for today. Currently flying around Hispaniola at approximately 24,500ft.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1033 Postby psyclone » Wed Aug 11, 2021 6:39 pm

toad strangler wrote:
Woofde wrote:Convection still looks rather impressive considering it is over land. It wouldn't be suprising to see it die down soon though.


Land is one thing. Ten thousand foot tall mountains are another ... :blowup:


Ten thousand foot mountains are probably a net convective benefit owing to orographic processes. If anything after it emerges over water it will have disruptive downsloping to contend with. We may revert back to a PTC, maintain TC designation just for continuity purposes...or perhaps we need a new category: PNS...
Potential naked swirl. All kidding aside, any disturbance emerging over water in August is worth monitoring as things can change fast..
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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1034 Postby toad strangler » Wed Aug 11, 2021 6:43 pm

psyclone wrote:
toad strangler wrote:
Woofde wrote:Convection still looks rather impressive considering it is over land. It wouldn't be suprising to see it die down soon though.


Land is one thing. Ten thousand foot tall mountains are another ... :blowup:


Ten thousand foot mountains are probably a net convective benefit owing to orographic processes. If anything after it emerges over water it will have disruptive downsloping to contend with. We may revert back to a PTC, maintain TC designation just for continuity purposes...or perhaps we need a new category: PNS...
Potential naked swirl. All kidding aside, any disturbance emerging over water in August is worth monitoring as things can change fast..


My posting history has shown that I'm a proponent of the idea that weaker storms do better traversing the Shredder Islands. THat said, this particular angle into Hispaniola is not what you want to see any system hit if you are looking for survival. We'll see though .... and ya, the date on the calendar does demand any disturbance in this area respect.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1035 Postby TallyTracker » Wed Aug 11, 2021 6:45 pm

I found this tool on accuweather that appears to take the wind direction data over Hispaniola. If it’s accurate, than I notice two things. First, Fred may already be an open wave as the west winds are becoming scarce. Second, the center or what’s left of it appears to be near Comendador on the Haiti border.
https://www.accuweather.com/en/do/national/wind-flow
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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1036 Postby tropicwatch » Wed Aug 11, 2021 6:50 pm

panamatropicwatch wrote:Is Kermit doing a high altitude flight? I didn't see one scheduled for today. Currently flying around Hispaniola at approximately 24,500ft.


Might be a regular mission, Kermit is descending now.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1037 Postby Woofde » Wed Aug 11, 2021 6:52 pm

According to the NHC Fred is now depressed. We wait to see if he will recover.
Last edited by Woofde on Wed Aug 11, 2021 6:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1038 Postby toad strangler » Wed Aug 11, 2021 6:55 pm

There are TWO levels of the letter "D" in the tropical totem pole.

Depression and DIssipated

The latter is just as likely right now.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1039 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Wed Aug 11, 2021 7:01 pm

Never ceases to amaze me the havoc those mountains can wreak on a tropical cyclone

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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1040 Postby tropicwatch » Wed Aug 11, 2021 7:02 pm

No surprises here, this was forecast to happen by the NHC.
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