ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Forecaster Stewart always has the best NHC Forecast Discussions, worth staying up late to read his.

[AutoPenalti]

Forecaster Stewart always has the best NHC Forecast Discussions, worth staying up late to read his.

Yeah he does, some here claim he’s too bullish sometimes but he’s done an outstanding job explaining his reasonings.

[BobHarlem]

From the 11PM Discussion "There is one caveat, however, and that is the ECMWF model forecasting the shear to weaken to 5-10 kt during the 36-72 hour period, which could allow for a little more strengthening than what the official orecast is currently indicating. "

This is the reason I think things will change quickly on Friday, the shift to ridging here is very interesting. Tomorrow I could probably just skip since it'll probably be folks competing on where the "center" is and armchair yelling at recon planes to check random different spots.

[AtlanticWind]

The first visibles in the morning should give us idea what shape Freds in.

[tailgater]

The first visibles in the morning should give us idea what shape Freds in.

My guess, it will pushing inland near Guantanamo Bay and the large mountains of western Cuba. Maybe a depression maybe just showers for Northwester Florida
Looking at night time visible, what’s left of Fred seems to be moving into the gulf of Gonave

[AtlanticWind]

The first visibles in the morning should give us idea what shape Freds in.

My guess, it will pushing inland near Guantanamo Bay and the large mountains of western Cuba. Maybe a depression maybe just showers for Northwester Florida
Looking at night time visible, what’s left of Fred seems to be moving into the gulf of Gonave

Looks to me to be on the north coast of Haiti

[Blown Away]

The first visibles in the morning should give us idea what shape Freds in.

My guess, it will pushing inland near Guantanamo Bay and the large mountains of western Cuba. Maybe a depression maybe just showers for Northwester Florida
Looking at night time visible, what’s left of Fred seems to be moving into the gulf of Gonave

Looks to me to be on the north coast of Haiti

Sure does, a little convection bubble brewing just off the N coast, maybe??

[AtlanticWind]

Convection expanding on the north and northeast side
Could it be the comeback?

[AutoPenalti]

Convection expanding on the north and northeast side
Could it be the comeback?

DMAX aiding in convection.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Convection expanding on the north and northeast side
Could it be the comeback?

The northern convection should increase, while the MLC slowly diminishes over the DR.

[AtlanticWind]

I noticed the convection bending in north of the D.R. looks like a circulation

Relocation?

[Hurricaneman]

I noticed the convection bending in north of the D.R. looks like a circulation

Relocation?

Possibly as things like that are possible with LLCs and Hispaniola

[ElectricStorm]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
200 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...DISORGANIZED FRED OVER NORTHWESTERN HAITI...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 72.8W
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM SSE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM E OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

[chaser1]

Tomorrow I could probably just skip since it'll probably be folks competing on where the "center" is and armchair yelling at recon planes to check random different spots.

That totally cracked me up; So true though! Pretty much why I finally chose to hibernate today lol

[AdamFirst]

Tropical Depression Fred Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
500 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

The rugged terrain of Hispaniola has taken a toll on Fred.
Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the
circulation is stretched out and seems to resemble a trough at the
surface. The system is now emerging back over water and is located
between Haiti, eastern Cuba, and the southeastern Bahamas. Most of
the associated showers and thunderstorms are located to the east of
the estimated center, with heavy rains continuing over portions of
Hispaniola. The initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt, but
there is limited data to confirm this. Both the NOAA and Air Force
Hurricane Hunters will be investigating Fred later this morning, and
the data from both planes will be helpful in estimating Fred's
strength and structure.

Fred appears to be moving west-northwestward at about 14 kt. The
track forecast reasoning has not changed much. A subtropical
ridge currently situated to the north of Fred over the western
Atlantic should continue to steer the system west-northwestward for
the next 36 to 48 hours. This motion should take the storm just
north of or across Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas during that
time period. By the weekend, the models suggest that Fred will
be rounding the western periphery of the ridge, which will likely a
cause a slow down and a gradual turn to the northwest and then the
north across portions of the Florida Keys, the Florida peninsula,
and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. There is uncertainty in exactly
where and when Fred will make that turn to the right, with models
currently spanning a region from over Florida to the east-central
Gulf of Mexico. The NHC track forecast remains on the right side
of the guidance envelope, near the typically more skillful global
models and consensus aids.

[Jr0d]

I'm seeing a naked swirl around the Inagua Islands, Mathew Town quickly pulling away from the rest of the convection.

Tough to say if this area will die off or become the dominant LLC, if it can start feeding some convection soon then Fred will.likely make a speedy comeback(from a minimal TS...). If this area dies off, then Fred will likely become a trough of low pressure and won't reform until Friday if at all.

Just my amateur speculation.

[beoumont]

Satellite enhancement of Fred on the Dr. Dvorkian scale.
Per MASH: suicide is painless
It brings on many changes.

[AlphaToOmega]

The HWRF takes this to Louisiana.

[AlphaToOmega]

Potential dihydrogen monoxide hazards

[Weatherboy1]

I'm seeing a naked swirl around the Inagua Islands, Mathew Town quickly pulling away from the rest of the convection.

Tough to say if this area will die off or become the dominant LLC, if it can start feeding some convection soon then Fred will.likely make a speedy comeback(from a minimal TS...). If this area dies off, then Fred will likely become a trough of low pressure and won't reform until Friday if at all.

Just my amateur speculation.

That was my feeling/guess too. Will see what visible say shows in a bit. Probably dead soon if that is the “center” but never say never.