ATL: FRED - Models

[NDG]

Just a friendly remindar how right biased the Euro was with Elsa and now has been with Fred so far. With its track record I am not buying its forecast track up inland through the Peninsula.

[Cat5James]

GFS also shifted East not just the Euro.... so now we are discounting the two major global models? In favor of what, the HMON and HWRF?

[BobHarlem]

0z Icon shifts back left, and is pretty close to the official forecast now.

fwiw, 95L ends the run over Abaco in the Bahamas, since the odd last frame kinda shows it.

[NDG]

GFS also shifted East not just the Euro.... so now we are discounting the two major global models? In favor of what, the HMON and HWRF?

I am not favoring the HWRF far west track on its latest 18z run, that's an outlier just like the Euro could be an outlier with its bias to the right.

[AtlanticWind]

Gfs slightly east .

[Blown Away]

GFS 00z... Slightly E with Upper Keys into Florida peninsula landfall and recurve into Big Bend area. 00z supposed to have upper air data, so should be a solid run.

[Cat5James]

Curious why John Morales is sharing spaghetti models that completely eliminate both the GFS and Euro… since when was the HMON more reliable then the two major global models?

[AxaltaRacing24]

HWRF has a storm again

[AxaltaRacing24]

HMON with a cat 1

[AxaltaRacing24]

Euro with a stronger landfall, featuring a 95L that is close to the HMON track up to this point.

[jlauderdal]

GFS also shifted East not just the Euro.... so now we are discounting the two major global models? In favor of what, the HMON and HWRF?

Not sure who WE is but when in doubt run with the TVCN, it takes out all the noise and lays down a very reliable consensus track. EURO received a big discount on elsa and fred, gfs not as much

[BobHarlem]

6z hmon


HWRF is way more disorganized, and difficult to show. but comes in much weaker a bit to the east of the HMON.

[tolakram]

HWRF init is in the wrong place. We'll have to wait for the 12Z run to allow it to generate more false hurricanes.

[tolakram]

Euro 6Z running, had a good init. Looks very very close to Cuba.

[tolakram]

Euro 6Z back to just the west side of Florida

[BensonTCwatcher]

There was some dry air at the mid levels to the SW of Fred but perhaps the remaining LLC will be shielded by Cuba from entraining it. But also Cuba will likely prevent the inflow needed to redevelop any time soon. Fred will need to overcome a good amount ( 20 knts or more) of WSWS shear ahead to build back convection. Fred has tough road to travel for development though 48 hours. There is not a huge amount of moisture to feed in either (looking at MIMIC plots) right now but NHC thinks that could well change. All that said, we've seen closed circs keep chugging under the shear until they hit better conditions. Not sure if there is really enough time to get all that organizing done before a potential FL landfall. Today I'm leaning to barely a TS on sat though the keys.

[NDG]

06z Euro says don't turn your back on Fred.
This is what I have been talking about, if Fred is able to track near or just offshore of W coast of FL conditions will not be that bad for it to strengthen with almost 48 hrs to do so and over very warm waters.

[tolakram]

West first. Not sure I completely buy the strengthening yet but it fits the pattern of the Atlantic conditions becoming more favorable west to east. Bastardi has also been drumming this, if you can find the good information inside everything else he talks about.

[jlauderdal]

06z Euro says don't turn your back on Fred.
This is what I have been talking about, if Fred is able to track near or just offshore of W coast of FL conditions will not be that bad for it to strengthen with almost 48 hrs to do so and over very warm waters.

https://i.imgur.com/TlmtNWN.gif

We have seen them intensify on approach to the big bend, lets see how it does today and what the models do with it now that it is moving away

[Dean4Storms]

Wind gusts in the 06z ECM up to 100mph in the NE Gulf.