ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[xironman]

Ghost, lets see if it can pick up some convection.

[Sciencerocks]

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Been awhile since we've seen a cyclone just get absolutely demolished over Hispaniola. I think there's a decent chance we get some funky center relocation attempts and half-hearted efforts to rebuild convection today, but I feel like recon is going to struggle to find much of anything resembling a closed circulation at the surface.

Fred pretty much took the single worst track it could over the island; had it managed to turn NW all of a few hours earlier, there's probably a TS this morning. As for now... it's not exactly the poster child for a strengthing storm (or any type of tropical cyclone, for that matter).

Have to watch convective trends to see if something attempts to consolidate throughout the day.

[Blown Away]

Not sure why the NHC is not acknowledging the circulation moving over Inagua Islands... There is nothing in their cone...

[Weatherboy1]

https://i.imgur.com/QmrvWkd.gif
https://i.imgur.com/1TqzsSU.png
Not sure why the NHC is not acknowledging the circulation moving over Inagua Islands... There is nothing in their cone...

The recon plane is closing in on this location, so they’re probably waiting on that data plus first visible satellite imagery. Also area of lowest pressure may be a bit further south as Fred is more like a disorganized trough/barely a TD at this point IMO

[Nimbus]

Circulation isn't racing away to the west, official forecast has the heading WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH. If the IR ghost is the LLC we saw at sunset it is still retaining some of its low level pressure gradient so this won't be a competing remnant center situation. It is a little dry but without interference from Cuba it will likely start to slowly pick up convection and could be a TS again when conditions improve Friday.

[Blown Away]

Circulation isn't racing away to the west, official forecast has the heading WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH. If the IR ghost is the LLC we saw at sunset it is still retaining some of its low level pressure gradient so this won't be a competing remnant center situation. It is a little dry but without interference from Cuba it will likely start to slowly pick up convection and could be a TS again when conditions improve Friday.

That low level swirl is moving solid WNW in tandem with the NHC track... I guess I don’t know anything b/c I can’t see another circulation developing within proximity of that low...

[aspen]

Oof, this isn’t looking so hot. Now we’ll have to wait and see if Fred can pull itself back from the brink of death. I wonder what’s up with that possible circulation outside the cone.

[Frank P]

Looks like this is either the center or a strong eddy of the depression in the first daylight images.

[Jr0d]

That naked swirl that's now just west of the Inagua Island looks like it is the true center now that we have some visual images. A seriously doubt we will see a center relocation....that is the center, if it dies off so does Fred.

Shear is clearly an issue and will be a major inhibitor today. As in the NHC discussion, the EURO is hinting at shear letting up tomorrow, until/if this happens Fred will.be fighting for survival.

[TallyTracker]

Fred’s looking like a remnant low right now. If it doesn’t get new convection by midday, NHC might downgrade. I expect them to keep issuing advisories either way though.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Shredder gon' shred. Fred is in ghost mode this morning. Gotta lot of work to do to rebuild.

[Kohlecane]

Looks like this is either the center or a strong eddy of the depression in the first daylight images.
https://i.ibb.co/sFG3Db9/8-DCB148-E-5697-41-DC-9-FB9-8-FDE78692-D31.jpg

only like 70 miles N of where the TWO had it a few hours ago NBD lol

[TallyTracker]

Looks like this is either the center or a strong eddy of the depression in the first daylight images.
https://i.ibb.co/sFG3Db9/8-DCB148-E-5697-41-DC-9-FB9-8-FDE78692-D31.jpg

If that remains the dominant center, then one advantage I do see is less land interaction with Cuba. That could help it survive. I doubt Fred could’ve survived running the spine of Cuba right after climbing Hispanola’s peaks.

[Weatherboy1]

Seems clear to me the center is that naked swirl, which puts Fred well north of the last estimated position … and likely eliminates land interaction with Cuba as an inhibiting factor. But once a system becomes a swirl, it’s hard to come back - particularly with the shear in play here. Expect NHC to continue advisories until 5 pm, but if no convection/regeneration happens by then, they’ll stick a form in him!

[InfernoFlameCat]

there appears to be a new area/ trough near where fred made landfall. All that convection seems to have generated it.

[AlphaToOmega]

Is the low still closed?

[InfernoFlameCat]

Is the low still closed?

Recon will find out. I believe so though.

[xironman]

They seem to be avoiding the area.

[NDG]

Recon should find a weak closed circulation where I placed the X, or approximately.