ATL: GRACE - Models

[IcyTundra]

HWRF develops 95L late in the run well south of Haiti and the DR. The Euro still shows development and is a little further south compared to the 12Z run passing just to the south of PR.

[Kohlecane]

It's all good GFS Takes this through as an open wave after PR on the 06z but at 360h that tail end of the trough seems promising , I think after 95L gets past 50W we might have some more consensus.

[Spacecoast]

0z ECMF ensembles very tightly clustered through 72-96 hrs



0z ECMF Density - Seems convinced of genesis

[Kohlecane]

0z ECMF ensembles very tightly clustered through 72-96 hrs
[url]https://i.ibb.co/qj0wQS9/ecmdn.jpg [/url]


0z ECMF Density - Seems convinced of genesis
[url]https://i.ibb.co/Kwv7HWC/ecmdm.jpg [/url]

interesting, suggestive of strong ridging over the ATL

[SoupBone]

Does the GFS finally do something with it on August 21st? Looks like it's out there off the east coast.

[cycloneye]

Does the GFS finally do something with it on August 21st? Looks like it's out there off the east coast.

Yes. That is 95L very strong.

[gatorcane]

12Z weaker through 72 hours.

[NDG]

Models have been horrible, including the Euro with 95L.

[gatorcane]

TUTT awaits 95l once it gets further west by the Lesser Antilles - that is some serious shear if the GFS is correct:

[AutoPenalti]

TUTT awaits 95l once it gets further west by the Lesser Antilles - that is some serious shear if the GFS is correct:

https://i.postimg.cc/hPDDPyKs/gfs-shear-watl-fh54-144.gif

So Fred decides to loop around the Panhandle?

Okay.

[aspen]

Models have been horrible, including the Euro with 95L.

The Euro has apparently done the best with 95L so far, which is a sentence I never thought I would say after 2020. It correctly predicted the more active and dominant northern lobe that we’ve seen today.

[gatorcane]

The steering is there for a classic South Florida strike on the 12Z Euro but it is showing unfavorable conditions in this run thankfully:

[AutoPenalti]

The steering is there for a classic South Florida strike on the 12Z Euro but it is showing unfavorable conditions in this run thankfully:

https://i.postimg.cc/wv5SJz9r/ecmwf-uv850-vort-watl-fh48-168.gif

It's not showing unfavorable conditions, it just happens to slam PR and DR again.

[Kingarabian]

Even before the 2020 model debacle, the models failed to key in on significant systems 72 hours before they formed in Michael 2016 and Harvey 2017. So it's always best to look at ALL the guidance, especially ensembles.

[cycloneye]

12z HWRF is running late.

[aspen]

12z HWRF is running late.

It finally shows development within the next 72 hours before reaching the islands. Nothing really strong, but it’s something.

Despite focusing on the dominant northern lobe, the HWRF shows minimal gain in latitude, and 95L enters the Caribbean around 16N — south of the Greater Antilles. Usually, the HWRF has a north bias, as seen with Laura, Eta, and Fred.

[AutoPenalti]

HWRF doesn't really do much with it which is odd considering the favorable conditions it encounters. It heads due west towards the GA's.

Following the same path as Fred tbh.

[AxaltaRacing24]

HWRF doesn't really do much with it which is odd considering the favorable conditions it encounters. It heads due west towards the GA's.

Following the same path as Fred tbh.

It's down the 997 mb and still intensifying at hour 90.

[AutoPenalti]

HWRF finds better conditions where Fred was but continues due W.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1425922484080103425