ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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- HurricaneEnzo
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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Fredo doesn't really look like a recovering storm to me. Minimal convection firing not really close to the center. There is definitely some spin there but I wouldn't say the circulation is overly tight or impressive. Models aren't really doing anything with this until it nears the Florida panhandle. Then it looks like some weak re-generation is possible.
Edit-meant panhandle not peninsula.
Edit-meant panhandle not peninsula.
Last edited by HurricaneEnzo on Thu Aug 12, 2021 2:22 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Depression - Discussion
The Atlantic is churning out a lot of weak, ugly storms so far this season.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Yesterday's supposed graphic of todays storm, after Hispanola, is more in tact than today's reality. We shall see if Fred can put himself back together again.
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Robbielyn McCrary
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- eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Depression - Discussion
HurricaneEnzo wrote:Fredo doesn't really look like a recovering storm to me. Minimal convection firing not really close to the center. There is definitely some spin there but I wouldn't say the circulation is overly tight or impressive. Models aren't really doing anything with this until it nears the Florida panhandle. Then it looks like some weak re-generation is possible.
Edit-meant panhandle not peninsula.
It’s dealing with some shear and Cuba is probably inhibiting some inflow. It’s not supposed to really restrengthen until tomorrow evening as it gets near the keys according to the NHC
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Convective burst sheared a little east now.
By tomorrow the shear will be easing and pushing the convection north away from Cuba.
Should be back to TS strength by the Florida straits.
By tomorrow the shear will be easing and pushing the convection north away from Cuba.
Should be back to TS strength by the Florida straits.
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- alienstorm
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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Here is a longer loop couple of items to note:
1) Shear is definitely there around 20 knots
2) It seems to be picking up moisture east and southeast of any LLC
3) Slow down but seems in the last few frames a little north component is it a trend or just a wobble
4) It will need another 12 24 hours to moisten up all of the west side.
1) Shear is definitely there around 20 knots
2) It seems to be picking up moisture east and southeast of any LLC
3) Slow down but seems in the last few frames a little north component is it a trend or just a wobble
4) It will need another 12 24 hours to moisten up all of the west side.
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- alienstorm
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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Depression - Discussion
alienstorm wrote:Here is a longer loop couple of items to note:
1) Shear is definitely there around 20 knots
2) It seems to be picking up moisture east and southeast of any LLC
3) Slow down but seems in the last few frames a little north component is it a trend or just a wobble
4) It will need another 12 24 hours to moisten up all of the west side.
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=s ... =undefined
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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Nimbus wrote:Convective burst sheared a little east now.
By tomorrow the shear will be easing and pushing the convection north away from Cuba.
Should be back to TS strength by the Florida straits.
idk. Levi says it all depends. It may be too weak to reorganize and generate convection. He said time will tell. He wasn't really able to tell which way it would turn out, TS or just some remnants.
Has anyone ever seen a wheel like structure ever come back to life? No convection in the center at all. Yesterday's HRWF structure of what should have come out after hispaniola looked way better than it currently does and that would have been good for regeneration but this? Will have to see.
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Robbielyn McCrary
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- alienstorm
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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Depression - Discussion
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Depression - Discussion
eastcoastFL wrote:HurricaneEnzo wrote:Fredo doesn't really look like a recovering storm to me. Minimal convection firing not really close to the center. There is definitely some spin there but I wouldn't say the circulation is overly tight or impressive. Models aren't really doing anything with this until it nears the Florida panhandle. Then it looks like some weak re-generation is possible.
Edit-meant panhandle not peninsula.
It’s dealing with some shear and Cuba is probably inhibiting some inflow. It’s not supposed to really restrengthen until tomorrow evening as it gets near the keys according to the NHC
It's low level inflow is actually benefitting from the strong southerly fetch of moist air coming up from the Windward Passage at the moment. No doubt though, Cuba is inhibiting inflow and as Naked Fred continues to advance WNW'ward, away from the Windward Passage it's inflow should become further starved tonight.
As for the regeneration "will it- won't it" game? Meh...


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Andy D
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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Any convection that tries to pop quickly gets sheared away. The circulation appeared tighter this morning so this is a sign of a weakening storm, by the time the shear relaxes, if it relaxes, may be too late for significant redevelopment.
It is looking less likely the Florida Keys and South Florida will get tropical storm conditions. The models are showing it redevelop when it turns north...if there is anything left to develop.b
It is looking less likely the Florida Keys and South Florida will get tropical storm conditions. The models are showing it redevelop when it turns north...if there is anything left to develop.b
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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Jr0d wrote:Any convection that tries to pop quickly gets sheared away. The circulation appeared tighter this morning so this is a sign of a weakening storm, by the time the shear relaxes, if it relaxes, may be too late for significant redevelopment.
It is looking less likely the Florida Keys and South Florida will get tropical storm conditions. The models are showing it redevelop when it turns north...if there is anything left to develop.b
this is way worse than projected so yeah it may not be able to regenerate and ya know what? thats ok with me.
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Robbielyn McCrary
I know just about enough to sound like I know what I'm talking about sometimes. But for your safety please follow the nhc for truly professional forecasting.
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- AdamFirst
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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Looks like it's slowing to me. Fred's naked swirl longs for a comfy blanket of a CDO, or at least some convection.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Depression - Discussion
If it’s slowing then steering currents are weakening and it might be approaching the edge of the HP ridge… a more NW turn should follow and some much needed breathing room from the Cuban coastline
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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Jr0d wrote:Any convection that tries to pop quickly gets sheared away. The circulation appeared tighter this morning so this is a sign of a weakening storm, by the time the shear relaxes, if it relaxes, may be too late for significant redevelopment.
It is looking less likely the Florida Keys and South Florida will get tropical storm conditions. The models are showing it redevelop when it turns north...if there is anything left to develop.b
this is way worse than projected so yeah it may not be able to regenerate and ya know what? thats ok with me.
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Robbielyn McCrary
I know just about enough to sound like I know what I'm talking about sometimes. But for your safety please follow the nhc for truly professional forecasting.
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- johngaltfla
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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Fred just needed a nap. He'll get some energy soon once he gets into the Florida Straits.


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- ScottNAtlanta
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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Depression - Discussion
It is going to be fighting with the inland convergence over Cuba into this evening. It anything is going to happen it will be tonight into the morning.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Depression - Discussion
robbielyn wrote:Nimbus wrote:Convective burst sheared a little east now.
By tomorrow the shear will be easing and pushing the convection north away from Cuba.
Should be back to TS strength by the Florida straits.
idk. Levi says it all depends. It may be too weak to reorganize and generate convection. He said time will tell. He wasn't really able to tell which way it would turn out, TS or just some remnants.
Has anyone ever seen a wheel like structure ever come back to life? No convection in the center at all. Yesterday's HRWF structure of what should have come out after hispaniola looked way better than it currently does and that would have been good for regeneration but this? Will have to see.
Naked Fred sort of reminds me of those low latitude TD or TS "westward racers" that encounter strong upper level shear and where the LLC starts to become exposed. At first, new convection tries to re-fire but the fast low level center eventually out-run's it's MLC and eventually simply spins down.
I'm not sure if anyone mentioned it yet but in spite of our being used to seeing an LLC "magically" redevelop further north on approach to the Islands, this just wasn't going to happen in this case. Why? Think about this for a moment.... So often, we'll see an approaching TS or hurricane where the vertical tilt has the MLC "leading" or tilted on the northern side of the tropical cyclone's envelope. Many past storm tracks coming north through the Caribbean (especially weaker or developing systems) will already have part of the broader mid level circulation emerging north of the Islands. The LLC may weaken or practically fill but it's essentially easier for a reformed or redeveloped LLC to try and form elsewhere & under better conditions within that broader MLC envelope where some vertical lift and circulation still exist.
Simply stated, Naked Fred always seemed to have it's associated MLC to its South (or East). Even beyond the adverse UL winds or dry air plaguing it now, it seemed pretty evident to me that any LLC trying to emerge from the N Coast of DR, Haiti, or Cuba would be little more then an exposed swirl. There really is a lot of weight to the adage "follow the convection". That's usually where the LLC will follow. Without it though, it's a process to pull that rip-cord and start refiring towers, then banding, etc.
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Andy D
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- Weatherboy1
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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Depression - Discussion
I was just going to stick a fork in Fred and say he was done. But if even some convection can fire nearer to his center, never say never I guess. Obviously has to stay off the Cuban coast too
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