ATL: GRACE - Remnants - Discussion

[NotSparta]

Both the Euro and GFS are not really enthusiastic over the next 5 days (nor do any of the globals). Conditions do not appear favorable for significant development at this time as it heads through or just north of the Lesser Antilles. Perhaps something weak is possible but nothing of concern at this time.

Conditions look pretty favorable (for the MDR) when 95L moves a bit more west, models don't develop much but that doesn't necessarily mean the conditions aren't favorable. Reminding me of 2020 where if you just look at models you will get burned

[EquusStorm]

Why are we still trusting Euro and GFS at all for formation chances given their absolutely abysmal performance in the Atlantic the last couple seasons, missing genesis countless times while constantly spinning up fake fantasy Pacific storms? For some reason they're completely unable to follow large scale factors in the Atlantic lately (particularly MJO progression it seems; the GFS assumes we're in a perpetual Niño which makes its output very dubious) and won't spin up clearly incipient tropical cyclones in a favorable environment. Model hugging this year and last year is a guaranteed way to be completely wrong more often than not. Until they can resolve whatever makes them useless in the Atlantic, I'm following satellite, humidity, shear, and MJO progression and essentially ignoring models. Once something forms they do alright but before then, laughably bad.

[aspen]

Levi said in this video that the northern lobe isn’t closed yet, but is very close with a very sharp trough axis. Since then, it seems like this is getting even closer to being classified. Probably not at 5pm unless we get another ASCAT pass before then that confirms it’s closed and the NHC puts out a special TWO update.

[AutoPenalti]

Floater now focused on the northern lobe.

[sma10]

Why are we still trusting Euro and GFS at all for formation chances given their absolutely abysmal performance in the Atlantic the last couple seasons

I have no idea. But it's rampant

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

AL, 95, 2021081218, , BEST, 0, 144N, 430W, 30, 1010, DB

[SFLcane]

Floater now focused on the northern lobe.

https://i.imgur.com/yOQz0tW.gif

Looks like a sheared mess. Plenty of dry air lurking nearby.

My concern for this one has really gone down

[captainbarbossa19]

Why are we still trusting Euro and GFS at all for formation chances given their absolutely abysmal performance in the Atlantic the last couple seasons, missing genesis countless times while constantly spinning up fake fantasy Pacific storms? For some reason they're completely unable to follow large scale factors in the Atlantic lately (particularly MJO progression it seems; the GFS assumes we're in a perpetual Niño which makes its output very dubious) and won't spin up clearly incipient tropical cyclones in a favorable environment. Model hugging this year and last year is a guaranteed way to be completely wrong more often than not. Until they can resolve whatever makes them useless in the Atlantic, I'm following satellite, humidity, shear, and MJO progression and essentially ignoring models. Once something forms they do alright but before then, laughably bad.

Right. Practically every storm the models have shown becoming a major was a dud. Felicia was the only storm of significance. Last thing we should do with this is treat it like it is a big nothing. We go through this every year where things struggle until they do not, unless ENSO is unfavorable. Since the EPAC is struggling to produce strong storms, that generally is not a good trend if you are looking for a quiet Atlantic. Let's watch this and see what it does instead of throwing it in the trash or placing it on a pedestal. It has a long way to go.

[AutoPenalti]

Floater now focused on the northern lobe.

https://i.imgur.com/yOQz0tW.gif

Looks like a sheared mess. Plenty of dry air lurking nearby.

My concern for this one has really gone down

Dry air won't be a concern after 55W and shear will relax. There's a reason why NHC has this at 60/70

[Sciencerocks]

[Category5Kaiju]

Floater now focused on the northern lobe.

https://i.imgur.com/yOQz0tW.gif

Looks like a sheared mess. Plenty of dry air lurking nearby.

My concern for this one has really gone down

Dry air won't be a concern after 55W and shear will relax. There's a reason why NHC has this at 60/70

My thoughts as well, if dry air’s presence is so telling and indicative of the death of a developing storm, then we might as well write off early stage Laura or Florence.

[aspen]

Vorticity signature looks quite good.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

Since it’s already nearly closed, Dmax could be enough of a boost to start pushing this to TD status. It developed that circulation a lot faster than expected, even with another lobe competing with the now-dominant NE lobe.

[AxaltaRacing24]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1425875719163457538?s=20

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1425876543172132866?s=20

I really wish Derek would post here again. !!

This just about sums it up lol. Nothing else even needs to be said.

[AlphaToOmega]

Invest 95L is still a disturbance. It is not even a low pressure area according to the best track data.

[SFLcane]

What ever comes from this will more then likely track towards the Bahamas and Florida. Hopefully it does not develop

[Spacecoast]

Why are we still trusting Euro and GFS at all for formation chances given their absolutely abysmal performance in the Atlantic the last couple seasons

I have no idea. But it's rampant

It's just (additional) information. The level of trust assigned is a personal decision.
One could easily verify any models past performance regarding genesis prediction.
It lies somewhere above 0% and below 100%.
It beats the Magic 8 - Ball.

The NHC would be an excellent way to verify what the models are suggesting.
" Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the
weekend while moving generally westward at about 20 mph across the
tropical Atlantic.


NHC offers two-day and five-day forecasts of tropical cyclone genesis. For the Atlantic in 2019, these forecasts were pretty reliable for five-day genesis forecasts of 40 – 70%: So, when NHC gave a 40% chance a tropical cyclone would form within five days, one did actually form about 40% of the time.
One hundred percent of the storms that it gave an 80% or 90% chance of development did in fact develop, and 20% of the systems that NHC gave a 0% chance of development for did in fact develop.

[abajan]

Up to 70/70.

[Category5Kaiju]

Cherry time!

[cycloneye]

A small low pressure system located about 1100 miles east of the
Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity primarily west of the center. However, environmental
conditions are expected to gradually become more conducive for
additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
by the weekend. The system is forecast to move generally westward at
about 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic, reaching portions of the
Leeward Islands late Saturday or early Sunday, and interests there
should monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[Nimbus]

Floater now focused on the northern lobe.

https://i.imgur.com/yOQz0tW.gif

Looks like a sheared mess. Plenty of dry air lurking nearby.

My concern for this one has really gone down

Its getting close to -50W so even if the eastern side of the circulation gets undercut with dry air (which was forecast) it will probably be temporary.