ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1281 Postby NDG » Thu Aug 12, 2021 5:39 pm

Shear near 20 knots is not keeping it from starting to reorgonize.

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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1282 Postby robbielyn » Thu Aug 12, 2021 5:41 pm

NDG wrote:Shear near 20 knots is not keeping it from starting to reorgonize.

https://i.imgur.com/F2ARSWz.gif

sometimes land friction can do wonders.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1283 Postby aspen » Thu Aug 12, 2021 5:42 pm

NDG wrote:Shear near 20 knots is not keeping it from starting to reorgonize.

https://i.imgur.com/F2ARSWz.gif

Looks like Fred is no longer Yabba-Dabba-Doomed. Quite an impressive blowup of convection all of a sudden.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1284 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Aug 12, 2021 5:45 pm

NDG wrote:Shear near 20 knots is not keeping it from starting to reorgonize.

https://i.imgur.com/F2ARSWz.gif

LLC is still moving though.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1285 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Thu Aug 12, 2021 5:48 pm

robbielyn wrote:
NDG wrote:Shear near 20 knots is not keeping it from starting to reorgonize.

https://i.imgur.com/F2ARSWz.gif

sometimes land friction can do wonders.

Actually...the land is holding it back for a short while. If you look over the Cuban land mass, all those thunderstorms are starving the center of convergence. Once we get into tonight, it will reverse.
That convection might be strong enough to pull the center underneath the covection
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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1286 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 12, 2021 6:18 pm

Last light.

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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1287 Postby psyclone » Thu Aug 12, 2021 6:24 pm

Considering we have a decent blowup at dmin and Fred remains within the disruptive downslope zone off of eastern Cuba, its chances should improve markedly with dmax and sufficient longitude as it pulls away from those high mountains in eastern Cuba. As we ramp up toward peak season, it only takes a spin to win. The possibility this gets bit stronger than expected certainly deserves a spot in everyone's thought process..especially folks in the keys. Things could get a good bit more interesting in the next 12-24 hours if Fred can gain and maintain some solid convection.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1288 Postby SFLcane » Thu Aug 12, 2021 6:27 pm

Easy there Fred…

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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1289 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 12, 2021 6:27 pm

Bastardi has a writeup on Weatherbell premium today, these are nice because it stays on topic. :) Still drumming about how the models always miss the MJO phase change and that phase II usually means in close development. He sees a strengthening hurricane into the panhandle or even west of that. Ignoring his strength predictions, if we end up with a stronger Fred than the models are currently showing then once again the MJO phase change idea has merit.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1290 Postby chaser1 » Thu Aug 12, 2021 6:34 pm

NDG wrote:Shear near 20 knots is not keeping it from starting to reorgonize.

https://i.imgur.com/F2ARSWz.gif


Boy, ain't that a fact?!! There's no way I would have expected this solid of a convective blow-up over center until m-a-y-b-e mid-day tomorrow? Pretty impressive actually. Let's see how long it can be sustained tonight given the shear. One interesting note however..... Fred's slower motion in combination with UL shear becoming southerly (rather then WSW), should induce a better upper air environment by sometime early Saturday I think.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1291 Postby wxman57 » Thu Aug 12, 2021 6:37 pm

The surface center appears to be west of the convection. Recon is finding a center aloft to the east. Still a good bit of shear. That 170 kt SFMR might be questionable.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1292 Postby johngaltfla » Thu Aug 12, 2021 6:39 pm

tolakram wrote:Bastardi has a writeup on Weatherbell premium today, these are nice because it stays on topic. :) Still drumming about how the models always miss the MJO phase change and that phase II usually means in close development. He sees a strengthening hurricane into the panhandle or even west of that. Ignoring his strength predictions, if we end up with a stronger Fred than the models are currently showing then once again the MJO phase change idea has merit.


IF this change idea occurs, it will be fascinating to watch if there is a future impact on forecasting across the board.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1293 Postby NDG » Thu Aug 12, 2021 6:39 pm

BTW, both recons are finding the LLC a little further SE than what it was estimated at 5 PM.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1294 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 12, 2021 6:41 pm

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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1295 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Aug 12, 2021 6:41 pm

chaser1 wrote:
NDG wrote:Shear near 20 knots is not keeping it from starting to reorgonize.

https://i.imgur.com/F2ARSWz.gif


Boy, ain't that a fact?!! There's no way I would have expected this solid of a convective blow-up over center until m-a-y-b-e mid-day tomorrow? Pretty impressive actually. Let's see how long it can be sustained tonight given the shear. One interesting note however..... Fred's slower motion in combination with UL shear becoming southerly (rather then WSW), should induce a better upper air environment by sometime early Saturday I think.



Did any of the model predict this happening this soon? Hopefully it doesn't last and stays decoupled. Panhandle has had So much rain the last 2 weeks.im afraid even a 60 mph TS would cause a lot of chaos with trees etc.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1296 Postby aspen » Thu Aug 12, 2021 6:42 pm

wxman57 wrote:The surface center appears to be west of the convection. Recon is finding a center aloft to the east. Still a good bit of shear. That 170 kt SFMR might be questionable.

Might be”?

What could even cause an erronous SFMR reading that high?
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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1297 Postby NXStumpy_Robothing » Thu Aug 12, 2021 6:44 pm

aspen wrote:
wxman57 wrote:The surface center appears to be west of the convection. Recon is finding a center aloft to the east. Still a good bit of shear. That 170 kt SFMR might be questionable.

Might be”?

What could even cause an erronous SFMR reading that high?

Well, I'm pretty sure it was passing over part of a hill or mountain on an island when that SFMR reading popped up. FL winds were around 30-35kt at that time fwiw.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1298 Postby cane5 » Thu Aug 12, 2021 6:52 pm

NDG wrote:Shear near 20 knots is not keeping it from starting to reorgonize.

https://i.imgur.com/F2ARSWz.gif


Florida Straits is a furnace, if Fred slows a bit and the low dies out SFl could see more impacts.
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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1299 Postby AtlanticWind » Thu Aug 12, 2021 7:12 pm

Slowed down to 7mph
Also fixed back at 75w
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Re: ATL: FRED - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1300 Postby AtlanticWind » Thu Aug 12, 2021 7:16 pm

Center under convection , still disorganized but trying for comeback.
Slower movement interesting
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