ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SFLcane]

BTW, both recons are finding the LLC a little further SE than what it was estimated at 5 PM.

We’re exactly?

[AtlanticWind]

The surface center appears to be west of the convection. Recon is finding a center aloft to the east. Still a good bit of shear. That 170 kt SFMR might be questionable.

“Might be”?

What could even cause an erronous SFMR reading that high?

The fastest RI ever seen

[Dean4Storms]

Geez, didn't expect this much re-organization this soon.

[AtlanticWind]

BTW, both recons are finding the LLC a little further SE than what it was estimated at 5 PM.

We’re exactly?

Its at 21.3 and 75.0 at 8pm

[AtlanticWind]

Geez, didn't expect this much re-organization this soon.

I didnt either, still dont expect too much but always worry about a small storm
spinning up quickly in this area.

[Dean4Storms]

Winds seems to be increasing, at least the Recon flight level readings compared to this AM.

[AtlanticWind]

Waiting to see models tonight, I know globals can miss a spin up on a small system.
Hwrf and Hmon should pick up on this if it is going to wrap up.

[Nimbus]

There isn't a huge pressure gradient yet so its freer to follow the convection.
That might make a little difference in track until we get a 10 mb drop again.
I think that ULL is going to be long gone by the time this gets near the Keys.

[johngaltfla]

Once the ULL pulls out, Fred won't be depressed much longer.

[AtlanticWind]

There isn't a huge pressure gradient yet so its freer to follow the convection.
That might make a little difference in track until we get a 10 mb drop again.
I think that ULL is going to be long gone by the time this gets near the Keys.

I see a little shear right now but not too bad.
Slower movement that seems to have started could
help it avoid shear as it gets closer to the keys

[Blown Away]

Tropical systems are so amazing, crazy how Fred was decapitated and coming back strong all within 24 hours...

[BobHarlem]

Very interesting... (Arte Johnson voice)

[AtlanticWind]

I could see this regaining Tropical Storm strength by friday morning if maintains convection overnight.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/lckytuba/status/1425978383759028224

[AtlanticWind]

Very interesting... (Arte Johnson voice)

Showing your age there but I remember that refrence too.

[AtlanticWind]

Strongest winds still far from the center
Needs to tighten up a lot

[sma10]

Very interesting... (Arte Johnson voice)

Showing your age there but I remember that refrence too.

Just as long as you go easy on any Ruth Buzzi references

[AtlanticWind]

One negative note,no sign of banding yet.

[floridasun78]

so fred not dead yet we cannot take bone out for fred so south fl may get bad weather and expect what we saw early today you think if get better that their may need put watch for south east fl coast???

[AtlanticWind]

Was looking at Fred and 95L. Is this the year of the tiny storm?