ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Dean4Storms]

Don't see any big pressure drop from Recon, so that's a positive note.

[aspen]

The most recent AF recon pass suggests Fred is getting very close to regaining TS status, with FL winds of ~40 kt and peak SFMR readings between 30-35 kt. The system’s pressure seems to be quite high, but unfortunately, the plane’s barometer doesn’t seem to be working right, and pressure readings at the LLC weren’t recorded.

[chaser1]

Geez, didn't expect this much re-organization this soon.

I didnt either, still dont expect too much but always worry about a small storm
spinning up quickly in this area.

That goes ditto for me.

[tropicwatch]

Don't see any big pressure drop from Recon, so that's a positive note.

Unfortunately the pressure readings stopped as HH was approaching the center.

[Nimbus]

Recon only found about 4 MB's of pressure drop so far, but the SST's are high in the area and anyone that has read about the 1935 labor day hurricane knows weak storms can surprise in a very short period of hours. Kind of spooky watching the shear diminish.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Recon only found about 4 MB's of pressure drop so far, but the SST's are high in the area and anyone that has read about the 1935 labor day hurricane knows weak storms can surprise in a very short period of hours. Kind of spooky watching the shear diminish.

You also have to take into account that the background pressure state is pretty high.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Don't see any big pressure drop from Recon, so that's a positive note.

Unfortunately the pressure readings stopped as HH was approaching the center.

I hate when that happens

[ronjon]

Recon only found about 4 MB's of pressure drop so far, but the SST's are high in the area and anyone that has read about the 1935 labor day hurricane knows weak storms can surprise in a very short period of hours. Kind of spooky watching the shear diminish.

Big win for Euro if shear is dropping. It predicted it dropping to 5-10 kts.

[aspen]

Recon only found about 4 MB's of pressure drop so far, but the SST's are high in the area and anyone that has read about the 1935 labor day hurricane knows weak storms can surprise in a very short period of hours. Kind of spooky watching the shear diminish.

At least this thing is forced to start from scratch, and isn’t an already well-organized TS. Otherwise, SFL would be in some trouble.

[tropicwatch]

HH not really finding any west winds during this pass.

[alienstorm]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 13th day of the month at 1:14Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5304
Storm Name: Fred
Storm Number & Year: 06 in 2021 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 04

A. Time of Center Fix: 13th day of the month at 0:51:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21.36N 75.30W
B. Center Fix Location: 99 statute miles (159 km) to the NNE (20°) from Santiago de Cuba, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 798m (2,618ft) at 925mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1013mb (29.92 inHg) - Extrapolated
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NA
F. Eye Character: Not Available
G. Eye Shape: Not Available
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 33kts (38.0mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles) to the N (5°) of center fix at 0:40:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 114° at 42kts (From the ESE at 48.3mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 39 nautical miles (45 statute miles) to the N (10°) of center fix at 0:38:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 15kts (17.3mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 36 nautical miles (41 statute miles) to the W (269°) of center fix at 1:03:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 54° at 13kts (From the NE at 15.0mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 48 nautical miles (55 statute miles) to the W (270°) of center fix at 1:06:30Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 761m (2,497ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 761m (2,497ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 20°C (68°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 925mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 10 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 42kts (~ 48.3mph) which was observed 39 nautical miles (45 statute miles) to the N (10°) from the flight level center at 0:38:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb

TS Winds and lowest pressure 1013 extrapolated so probably a little lower

[Weatherboy1]

If Fred relocates under that crazy convection… and speed slows down … and shear starts to drop overnight… just sayin’

[ScottNAtlanta]

So I guess it is TS at 11p?

[jlauderdal]

If Fred relocates under that crazy convection… and speed slows down … and shear starts to drop overnight… just sayin’

If all of that happens it should be renamed the IF storm...we had the noname storm in sofla that caused considerable flooding

[BobHarlem]

Arrow pointing approx to recon VDM location

[SFLcane]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 13th day of the month at 1:14Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5304
Storm Name: Fred
Storm Number & Year: 06 in 2021 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 04

A. Time of Center Fix: 13th day of the month at 0:51:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21.36N 75.30W
B. Center Fix Location: 99 statute miles (159 km) to the NNE (20°) from Santiago de Cuba, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 798m (2,618ft) at 925mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1013mb (29.92 inHg) - Extrapolated
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NA
F. Eye Character: Not Available
G. Eye Shape: Not Available
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 33kts (38.0mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles) to the N (5°) of center fix at 0:40:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 114° at 42kts (From the ESE at 48.3mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 39 nautical miles (45 statute miles) to the N (10°) of center fix at 0:38:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 15kts (17.3mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 36 nautical miles (41 statute miles) to the W (269°) of center fix at 1:03:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 54° at 13kts (From the NE at 15.0mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 48 nautical miles (55 statute miles) to the W (270°) of center fix at 1:06:30Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 761m (2,497ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 761m (2,497ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 20°C (68°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 925mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 10 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 42kts (~ 48.3mph) which was observed 39 nautical miles (45 statute miles) to the N (10°) from the flight level center at 0:38:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb

TS Winds and lowest pressure 1013 extrapolated so probably a little lower

That should do it

[TallyTracker]

So I guess it is TS at 11p?

Not necessarily since it’s borderline though it wouldn’t completely surprise me. Flight level winds do support the SFMR readings. To say 34 kt winds are likely when 33 kt surface winds were measured isn’t a stretch.

[BobHarlem]

So I guess it is TS at 11p?

Not necessarily since it’s borderline though it wouldn’t completely surprise me. Flight level winds do support the SFMR readings. To say 34 kt winds are likely when 33 kt surface winds were measured isn’t a stretch.

If the timing is for the 11pm advisory, probably more likely to be upgraded again (unless we get another pass) assuming Fred doesn't fall apart in the next hour. Definite upgrade if the convection the VDM area pops a bit more.

[Woofde]

Fred is currently over 29C SSTs, it should get an even bigger boost as it tracks west into 31C waters. If Fred doesn't run into Southern Florida we could definitely see a Hurricane heading into the Panhandle.

[jlauderdal]

Fred is currently over 29C SSTs, it should get an even bigger boost as it tracks west into 31C waters. If Fred doesn't run into Southern Florida we could definitely see a Hurricane heading into the Panhandle.

Fred isnt running into southern florida, might run into the keys but that wont have an effect