ATL: GRACE - Models

[Carolinagirl18]

:eek: WOW

Ain't gonna happen but 0z GFS has a hurricane stall of FL then head north for a OBX direct hit bordering cat 4.

Pure fantasy of course.

Thats more like Carteret co for land fall. Not outer banks although they would get some of it. To far out to know yet but we've seen this track yo many times

[Hurricaneman]

6zGFS is finally running

[SouthFLTropics]

06z GFS already looking ominous north of PR.


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[Hurricaneman]

06z GFS already looking ominous north of PR.


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Not quite as strong at this point this run but a little SW of 0z

[Hypercane_Kyle]

06z GFS coming in considerably weaker through 132 hours.

[Shell Mound]

06z GFS already looking ominous north of PR.


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Not quite as strong at this point this run but a little SW of 0z

On this run a strong TUTT descends just in time to decapitate the low as it approaches the easternmost Bahamas. The TUTT also accounts for the weaker intensity.

[AutoPenalti]

Without looking at the run it sounds like conditions became less favorable in the GFS?

[Hurricaneman]

The difference between this run and 0z is the TUTT is a little farther west on this run imparting shear until the central Bahamas instead of the TUTT being east like the 0z

[aspen]

The track from the last two GFS runs reminds me of a certain D storm from a few years ago…hopefully it turns away at the last moment without stalling.

[SFLcane]

Gfs trending westward from 00z run. Next run potentially into Florida.

[Shell Mound]

The track from the last two GFS runs reminds me of a certain D storm from a few years ago…hopefully it turns away at the last moment without stalling.

The 06Z GFS is basically Dorian 2.0: 95L rapidly deepens as it slows and stalls either over or just north of the Abaco Islands, becoming a major in the process.

[Kohlecane]

06Z GFS showing some consistency on getting this thing above the islands and close to the SE coast as a CAT 2/3 as of 228hr

[Hypercane_Kyle]

06z GFS coming in considerably weaker through 132 hours.

Results in a more western-trekking storm once it storms intensifying.

[Shell Mound]

The track from the last two GFS runs reminds me of a certain D storm from a few years ago…hopefully it turns away at the last moment without stalling.

The 06Z GFS is basically Dorian 2.0: 95L rapidly deepens as it slows and stalls either over or just north of the Abaco Islands, becoming a major in the process.

The GFS is showing an extremely rare sight: an intensifying Category-4 cyclone heading NW into GA/SC, à la 1898, Gracie (1959), or Hugo (1989). Here is an image:

[BobHarlem]

0z GFS Outer Banks, 6Z GFS Savannah GA Strong Cat 3

[Shell Mound]

The track from the last two GFS runs reminds me of a certain D storm from a few years ago…hopefully it turns away at the last moment without stalling.

The 06Z GFS is basically Dorian 2.0: 95L rapidly deepens as it slows and stalls either over or just north of the Abaco Islands, becoming a major in the process.

The GFS is showing an extremely rare sight: an intensifying Category-4 cyclone heading NW into GA/SC, à la 1898, Gracie (1959), or Hugo (1989). Here is an image:

https://i.ibb.co/pPm8Gzc/Georgia-1.png

Landfall occurs just north of Sapelo Island, GA, roughly between Darien and Savannah, around midnight EDT on 25 August, with some modest filling pre-landfall:

[Hypercane_Kyle]

[Shell Mound]

Dorian 2.0: just a bit farther northwest this time...

[SFLcane]

[caneseddy]

GFS trending SW the past two runs

00z was North Carolina
06z is GA/SC border

Will it continue the trend? Stay tuned!