2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#601 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Aug 10, 2021 12:11 am

Fantasy range GFS. Can't tell if it's the wave by Africa or something in front of it so I'm putting it here.
Image

EDIT: Dang 945mb into S TX.
Last edited by ElectricStorm on Tue Aug 10, 2021 12:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#602 Postby Ubuntwo » Tue Aug 10, 2021 12:13 am

The 0z GFS portrays quite the active august. Westernmost system is from the wave just off Africa, easternmost system is from a wave right behind it.

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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#603 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Aug 10, 2021 12:14 am

All I will say about the latest GFS run is, "Houston, we have a problem." It's fantasy-range, but if it were to verify, then it would definitely be a serious issue.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#604 Postby SoupBone » Tue Aug 10, 2021 12:17 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:
toad strangler wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:Yikes, just looked at the most recent GEFS, and it shows a fairly strong ensemble support signal for a system to slam into the Rio Grande/Gulf of Mexico region between TX and Mexico shortly after the August 20th timeframe; some members take it further south while others further north, I seriously am thinking that the wave that just departed Africa is worthy of monitoring



You are talking about GFS end of the run type hours here so it's complete fantasy range to be mentioning an end game for a wave that is still shaking off zebras and lions. That wave is already being discussed and does seem to have potential.... at least I'm pretty sure you mean this one .... viewtopic.php?f=31&t=122069


I know things will likely change between now and then, but yeah that wave, it just exited Africa and looks quite robust with some nice spinnage already. I think it won't do much until it is closer to the islands, but I have a hunch that once it enters that region, we'll be monitoring it like a hawk.


His point, which was a solid one, is that we're talking in complete fantasy land for that system at this point. Way too many variables for any area to be too concerned. But hey, it is peak season right? :lol:
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#605 Postby sma10 » Tue Aug 10, 2021 12:21 am

SoupBone wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:
toad strangler wrote:

You are talking about GFS end of the run type hours here so it's complete fantasy range to be mentioning an end game for a wave that is still shaking off zebras and lions. That wave is already being discussed and does seem to have potential.... at least I'm pretty sure you mean this one .... viewtopic.php?f=31&t=122069


I know things will likely change between now and then, but yeah that wave, it just exited Africa and looks quite robust with some nice spinnage already. I think it won't do much until it is closer to the islands, but I have a hunch that once it enters that region, we'll be monitoring it like a hawk.


His point, which was a solid one, is that we're talking in complete fantasy land for that system at this point. Way too many variables for any area to be too concerned. But hey, it is peak season right? :lol:


Fantasy range? Absolutely. But it is at least grounded in a pinch of reality because the monster depicted in the W Gulf is right now a wave just south of the Cape Verdes and it is looking awfully good. Wouldn't be at all surprised if NHC starts giving this a mention soon.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#606 Postby kevin » Wed Aug 11, 2021 2:04 am

Multiple models are showing a highly unusual storm in the Black Sea this weekend. Below images by ICON and ARPEGE. Never before has a storm reached hurricane strength in the Black Sea (at least as far as is known), but multiple models are showing a storm with a clear eye by the weekend and gusts up to roughly 120 mph in the case of ICON. Can't say I've ever seen anything like this before, but I wonder if it'll actually happen.

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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#607 Postby aspen » Thu Aug 12, 2021 11:52 am

The Euro and ICON suggest there could be subtropical development north of the Bahamas starting as early as Monday.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#608 Postby Spacecoast » Thu Aug 12, 2021 4:45 pm

12z ECMF - a few members & operational show another wave after 95L (splashing down @ 120hr)
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#609 Postby aspen » Fri Aug 13, 2021 12:53 pm

The ICON has been pretty consistent about a TC forming in the western subtropics near Bermuda in a few days. Now, the GEFS ensembles are showing it too. One member has this become a hurricane.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#610 Postby aspen » Fri Aug 13, 2021 3:11 pm

There's a bit of support for a potential subtropical system in a few days, while the ensembles are hinting there could eventually be another MDR system by mid-late next week or later.

ECENS ensembles:
Image
Image

Operational ECMWF:
Image

GEFS ensembles:
Image

It's possible the subtropical system (could be Henri) will help weaken the ridge and help Grace come further north. Some CFS runs have supported the idea of a MDR storm (could be Ida) around the August 20th-25th timeframe.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#611 Postby AlphaToOmega » Fri Aug 13, 2021 8:07 pm

aspen wrote:There's a bit of support for a potential subtropical system in a few days, while the ensembles are hinting there could eventually be another MDR system by mid-late next week or later.

ECENS ensembles:
https://i.imgur.com/hkfxR2x.png
https://i.imgur.com/2OoFg2H.png

Operational ECMWF:
https://i.imgur.com/uSBwafu.png

GEFS ensembles:
https://i.imgur.com/H841SrR.png

It's possible the subtropical system (could be Henri) will help weaken the ridge and help Grace come further north. Some CFS runs have supported the idea of a MDR storm (could be Ida) around the August 20th-25th timeframe.


That future potential subtropical system deserves a mention in the next Tropical Weather Outlook.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#612 Postby AlphaToOmega » Sat Aug 14, 2021 4:49 am

We could have Julian as early as August 24
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#613 Postby Shell Mound » Sat Aug 14, 2021 7:20 am

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1418198673981333505



Image

So far the TUTT is taking longer than expected to depart...
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#614 Postby MetroMike » Sat Aug 14, 2021 8:09 am

AlphaToOmega wrote:We could have Julian as early as August 24
https://i.postimg.cc/Dy4911ZX/ecmwf-mslpa-atl-11.png


Waiting for the H and I storm before this lmao.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#615 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Aug 14, 2021 9:16 am

AlphaToOmega wrote:We could have Julian as early as August 24
https://i.postimg.cc/Dy4911ZX/ecmwf-mslpa-atl-11.png


What about Henri and Ida?
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#616 Postby AlphaToOmega » Sat Aug 14, 2021 9:19 am

MetroMike wrote:
AlphaToOmega wrote:We could have Julian as early as August 24
https://i.postimg.cc/Dy4911ZX/ecmwf-mslpa-atl-11.png


Waiting for the H and I storm before this lmao.


Henri could be the subtropical storm shown in ensemble runs over the Bahamas, and Ida could be the next wave after Grace.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#617 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Sat Aug 14, 2021 10:13 am

AlphaToOmega wrote:
MetroMike wrote:
AlphaToOmega wrote:We could have Julian as early as August 24
https://i.postimg.cc/Dy4911ZX/ecmwf-mslpa-atl-11.png


Waiting for the H and I storm before this lmao.


Henri could be the subtropical storm shown in ensemble runs over the Bahamas, and Ida could be the next wave after Grace.


If Grace fails to become our first major, I am thinking it will be Ida. If she is the next wave, she will be forming right around the 20th. The switch almost always seems to flip around that date. Usually, conditions do not really start to become super favorable until about the 25th-31st. We will see, but I suspect that we are going to get a major very soon.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#618 Postby crownweather » Sat Aug 14, 2021 10:25 am

crownweather wrote:
captainbarbossa19 wrote:
AlphaToOmega wrote:
Henri could be the subtropical storm shown in ensemble runs over the Bahamas, and Ida could be the next wave after Grace.


Plus the dreaded "I" storm.

If Grace fails to become our first major, I am thinking it will be Ida. If she is the next wave, she will be forming right around the 20th. The switch almost always seems to flip around that date. Usually, conditions do not really start to become super favorable until about the 25th-31st. We will see, but I suspect that we are going to get a major very soon.


Plus the dreaded "I" storm.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#619 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Aug 14, 2021 12:44 pm

crownweather wrote:
crownweather wrote:
captainbarbossa19 wrote:
Plus the dreaded "I" storm.

If Grace fails to become our first major, I am thinking it will be Ida. If she is the next wave, she will be forming right around the 20th. The switch almost always seems to flip around that date. Usually, conditions do not really start to become super favorable until about the 25th-31st. We will see, but I suspect that we are going to get a major very soon.


Plus the dreaded "I" storm.


Seriously, every season, even before we reach the I storm, I automatically think of potential replacement I names for that season's I storm as I always feel like it is going to be a monster storm and be worthy of retirement. For Ida, for instance, if it manages to follow the I curse and get retired, Imogen and Ivy are some of my favorite potential replacement names for that. Anyways, back to models..
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#620 Postby toad strangler » Sat Aug 14, 2021 3:15 pm

Looking at the 10 day longer range and just after the Dr. Gray bell ring of 8/20 both the GFS and the Euro show vigorous MDR waves in the same location.


Image
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