ATL: GRACE - Models

[aspen]

00z HWRF: Grace intensifies into a strong Cat 1 before making landfall in PR and taking a Laura-like path through all of the Greater Antilles, also refusing to die

06z GFS: Grace hits Puerto Rico but shifts north enough to miss DR, then hits the southernmost tip of Florida

00z Euro: Grace runs into all the big islands and dies

00z CMC: Grace is north enough to miss both PR and Hispaniola, but it remains south enough to go through the Florida Straits into the Gulf

06z ICON: pretty much the same track as the GFS

[gatorcane]

A look at the strong shear from the upper trough over the Bahamas and SW Atlantic as shown on the GFS. Conditions might become favorable in the vicinity of Florida, or thereafter if it makes it into the Gulf, but until then, tough road ahead:

[gatorcane]

Bearish GFS ensembles:

[Shell Mound]

A look at the strong shear from the upper trough over the Bahamas and SW Atlantic as shown on the GFS. Conditions might become favorable in the vicinity of Florida, or thereafter if it makes it into the Gulf, but until then, tough road ahead:

https://i.postimg.cc/zG0VKm3v/gfs-shear-watl-fh0-168.gif

Maybe we should we adopt a new term for this season: “La Niño.” That persistent TUTT, combined with EPAC activity, is reminiscent of +ENSO, not -ENSO.

Fortunately, most models suggest that Grace should continue to move fairly rapidly, so even as a weak system it may not produce much flooding in the islands.

[NDG]

SHIPS and GFS show no problem with shear or dry air over the next 48 hrs, yes it is currently moving fast but it is forecasted to start slowing down later today and especially tomorrow, its biggest obstacle will be Hispaniola, very important Grace's latitude over the next couple of days. If it tracks north of the Greater Antilles it will not have the best UL conditions but the latest GFS shows the TUTT to have died out by Wednesday as it tracks through the Bahamas with shear near 13-20 knots before finding better UL conditions near FL, if this run was to be correct.

[otowntiger]

Bearish GFS ensembles:

https://i.postimg.cc/fbcqBKnV/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh0-168.gif

Makes sense given the very hostile environment the GFS is depicting.

Perfect recipe for a low impact tropical system: small + weak+ fast moving= Grace

[AutoPenalti]

Bearish GFS ensembles:

https://i.postimg.cc/fbcqBKnV/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh0-168.gif

They look bearish because they landfall in PR. The northern members continue towards the Bahamas.

[SFLcane]

Well this is interesting from the gfs. If it can avoid land look out.

[otowntiger]

Bearish GFS ensembles:

https://i.postimg.cc/fbcqBKnV/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh0-168.gif

They look bearish because they landfall in PR. The northern members continue towards the Bahamas.

But even then don’t they depict a pretty docile system due to shear in the area?

[SFLcane]

Euro has an open wave Right now so it seems to be playing catch up.

[HurricaneFrances04]

The 6z HWRF is not updating on Tropical Tidbits, but is similar to the 18z run from yesterday.

[NDG]

06z Euro trended a little north, skirting the northern coast of PR and Hispaniola but surviving unlike its earlier 0z run.

[aspen]

06z HWRF, like the 18z, has Grace miss the Greater Antilles. It does appear to account for the forecasted shear, as it has Grace level off/slightly weaken past 36-42 hours, and its simulated IR structure degrades before finding a more favorable environment in the Bahamas at the end of the run. The sudden gain in latitude once it passes PR is suspicious, as no other model has forecasted it.

[sma10]

The 6z HWRF is not updating on Tropical Tidbits, but is similar to the 18z run from yesterday.

Yes, similar to the 18z, only quite a bit further SW

[SFLcane]

Huge shift north 12z models

[AutoPenalti]

[HurricaneFrances04]

Feel like the 6z/18z runs want to say north and stronger, while the 0z/12z runs say south and weak

Euro also back to being a bit more bullish

[AtlanticWind]

https://i.imgur.com/ow0FWUy.png

Not suprising, models depicting stronger storm missing a Hispanola direct hit.

[AdamFirst]

In HWRF fashion, it ominously bends Grace back toward the WNW at the end of the run....

[Kohlecane]

Interesting that the 6Z GFS keeps this Cat 1 through FL and even up to GA