Changes in the globals ... still quite interesting ...

[Stormsfury]

This won't be long as has been in the past few days ...

However, the CMC and its ensemble members are continuing to hint at development in the Tropical Atlantic/Caribbean Sea ... and other models are starting to come aboard with SOME kind of development within the Caribbean ... though details are not the same, the overall idea is still the same ... but not as robust as the CMC ... the problem with the CMC run is that how it takes the system right over Hispanola and NOT weaken the system ...

00z CMC MSLP and 925 mb Vorticity ...
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/cmctc2.cgi? ... =Animation

http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/cmctc2.cgi? ... =Animation

The GFS 950mb vorticity continues to show the vorticity signature ... as well as the NOGAPS (18z) (which is an entirely different animal altogether).

http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/avntc2.cgi? ... =Animation

The NOGAPS develops a 1007mb low just before heading into Hispanola around Day 5 and then it weakens after passing over Hispanola ... which is more in line with reality with those 10,000 ft.+ mountains on the island.

Some other areas of interest ... are the SW Caribbean where vorticity signatures are showing up on the NOGAPS, UKMET particularly and the others with the NOGAPS showing 3 vorticity signatures ... one in the W Caribbean, the current suspect area (which is currently out in the Deep Tropical Atlantic between 40º - 50ºW), and another signature later in the period ... sorta like the CMC but nowhere near as close together as the CMC ...

The CMC ensembles are interesting ... but not as robust with development as the last couple of nights ... CMC6 is by far the most unique bringing a system over Puerto Rico and then doing a counter-clockwise motion moving completely around northern Hispanola (NW-W-SW) and then moving clockwise (SW-W-NW-N-NE) through the Bahamas but not affecting the US...

In fact, 50% of the CMC ensembles show a system in some form or another ... but NONE are indicating the powerhouse BOMB they showed the last couple of nights ... which seems quite reasonable ... Even a couple are hinting at something in the Western Caribbean later in the period ... something that the NOGAPS is also picking up on ...

10 day CMC 16 member ensemble loop

2003 Tropical Season may still end quietly but it won't go without at least something to talk about or monitor ...

[rainstorm]

the atlantic has a sept look

[Derek Ortt]

If I make a plot of the precip water for the Atlantic tomorrow (which I havnt done in a couple of weeks since there has been no need), I can guarantee that there is about 50% the PW as there was in September. Not too favorable for development with a lot of dry air

[rainstorm]

big ridge out there, very sept like

[Stormsfury]

*SF falls out of his chair*

Score this a first ... telling rainstorm there's too much dry air ...