ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

11AM advisory should stick a fork in Fred. Might regenerate but there is no TC there......MGC

Wxman57 explained it would be to confusing to downgrade to PTC only to upgrade Fred later when it's predicted to regain a center.

In my amateur opinion, Fred has not been a cyclone for a good 36 hours.

That's why there's TV weather guys going 24/7 to explain that stuff. I think it does more harm to the public to classify as something it isn't, it being somewhat of a dud, and people not trusting what they say about the next system that comes long being classified the same, actually being that, and packing more punch.

The majority of the public doesn't really care unless it's headed towards them, and even then most just look at category. You are not, and will not, get people to change attitudes by following some magic equation.

[ObsessedMiami]

Boy the 48 hour evolution of the Miami rainfall forecast has been like falling down the stairs. Still a flood watch I guess because of the saturation here

[AlphaToOmega]

The NHC track estimate is concerning. Because it goes over the loop current in the Gulf, it will be able to intensify quite quickly. It could become a hurricane.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Fred looks like an abstract painting at this point.

[wwizard]

Wxman57 explained it would be to confusing to downgrade to PTC only to upgrade Fred later when it's predicted to regain a center.

In my amateur opinion, Fred has not been a cyclone for a good 36 hours.

That's why there's TV weather guys going 24/7 to explain that stuff. I think it does more harm to the public to classify as something it isn't, it being somewhat of a dud, and people not trusting what they say about the next system that comes long being classified the same, actually being that, and packing more punch.

The majority of the public doesn't really care unless it's headed towards them, and even then most just look at category. You are not, and will not, get people to change attitudes by following some magic equation.

Of course the majority doesn't care unless it's coming towards them, which makes it even sillier to classify it as something it's not. But if you tell those people it's something it's not, and the effects they get from it are blah, the next time you tell them and it really is something more organized, they won't take it seriously.

Just call it what it is. It isn't that hard. TV weatherman will explain it to you.

[AlphaToOmega]

From the discussion:

Surface observations from Cuba do not show a closed circulation, and satellite imagery shows at least two vorticity centers embedded in a large trough.

[HeeBGBz]

Fred is officially dead per the NHC, at least for the time being. They forecast re-development in the Gulf like every model currently indicates.

Will it still be Fred if it regenerates?

[hohnywx]

Fred is officially dead per the NHC, at least for the time being. They forecast re-development in the Gulf like every model currently indicates.

Will it still be Fred if it regenerates?

Yes

[psyclone]

Finally an acknowledgement on Fred's longstanding "weekend at Bernie's" status. Fred is dead...and has been for awhile. But there's a 90% chance Fred comes back to life. Oh my.

[crimi481]

Possible c enter forms more east over Cuba n coast - as there is less shear there. Just a guess

[ScottNAtlanta]

I would say dont let your guard down on this one. There are plenty of examples of systems that looked like this that suddenly get together and strengthen rapidly. Will it happen here? That's a really tough call, but the Fat Lady aint singin' yet. This is also going to complicate the forecast for Grace as well.

[Craters]

I would say dont let your guard down on this one. There are plenty of examples of systems that looked like this that suddenly get together and strengthen rapidly. Will it happen here? That's a really tough call, but the Fat Lady aint singin' yet. This is also going to complicate the forecast for Grace as well.

And if you need a erlatively recent, classic example as a reminder, try Harvey.

[Blinhart]

I can see this reforming over the strait in between the Yucatan and Cuba and then move North.

[Jr0d]

We have low level clouds moving southwest over the Island of Youth...that is a potential spot for a center reformation. If so Fred may be revived a little sooner than expected. This area was mentioned in the 11am discussion.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=s ... =undefined

[chaser1]

11AM advisory should stick a fork in Fred. Might regenerate but there is no TC there......MGC

Wxman57 explained it would be to confusing to downgrade to PTC only to upgrade Fred later when it's predicted to regain a center.

In my amateur opinion, Fred has not been a cyclone for a good 36 hours.

That's why there's TV weather guys going 24/7 to explain that stuff. I think it does more harm to the public to classify as something it isn't, it being somewhat of a dud, and people not trusting what they say about the next system that comes long being classified the same, actually being that, and packing more punch.

I think there's real merit to your point. Granted.... the "public" in this case were primarily those in S. Florida listening to the increasing drum-beat of a potential T.S. (or minimal hurricane) to approach this weekend. Can't blame NHC for Fred's unexpected "Pike's Peak" tour of the Dominican Republic Alps though, but I do believe NHC was overly bullish on redevelopment when it became fairly clear that no coherent COC remained. That resulted in continued advisories during a span of time that many were playing "where's Waldo" to find a coherent COC. Even at the risk of diminished storm track continuity, I think "time of death" should have been established soon after daylight verified that the mountains of Hispaniola were still there, but with only shards of Fred scattered north, south, east and west of the Island. The good news is that those in S. Florida were not raiding stores or throwing up shutters, so no harm-no foul. Still, I do think there is a cumulative risk from Watches and Warnings raised over time (especially involving weak, borderline, or sub-tropical T.S. events) where an increasing population fail to experience those expected severe weather conditions they are told to take heed of.

[tolakram]

Watch the low level clouds in the lower left and left side of this loop. Looks to me like an LLC may form near this area.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Havana-natcolor-48-1-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[tailgater]

Area of convergence

[Frank P]

Watch the low level clouds in the lower left and left side of this loop. Looks to me like an LLC may form near this area.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Havana-natcolor-48-1-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Is that area just north of Cuba off the west part of the island?

[Frank P]

https://i.imgur.com/OLX9YgM.jpg
Area of convergence

Yeah that is the area I having been watching for the past 30 minutes or so!

[SunnyThoughts]

https://i.imgur.com/OLX9YgM.jpg
Area of convergence

Yeah that is the area I having been watching for the past 30 minutes or so!

Same here. I think that's exactly where Fred makes his return. Hopefully runs out of room and time to get stronger than the NHC has it forecast to become. They are making a decision on schools for Monday, around noon tomorrow for Escambia, Santa Rosa counties here in NW Fla.