ATL: GRACE - Models

[IcyTundra]

It appears what's happening is that if Fred ramps up in intensity then Fred's outflow will blast Grace with shear approaching the Bahamas. If Fred stays weak, then Grace is in a much better environment.

The GFS does show a stronger solution for Fred than the Euro and strengthens Grace more than the Euro. Not sure what to make of this setup.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Good news at least re: HWRF

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1426611259907129350

[JPmia]

Good news at least re: HWRF

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1426611259907129350

Let's hope that increases the accuracy of the HWRF because it's been so wrong lately.. I mean the Fred runs were an embarrassment.

[AtlanticWind]

Grace has a much larger envelope now , usually that bodes well for systems. At least thats what I've noticed
in the past.

[hurricane2025]

All about the pattern!! Don’t look for strength yet

[blp]

IMHO, Euro performed quite bad with Fred on the track. The GFS was little better but not good either. The HWRF given its crazy intensity bias at least was showing the track south of Cuba when all the globals had it further Norrh. I thought HWRF was crazy going south of Cuba and was not that far off. My choice would be going with HWRF/Hmon for track and GFS/Euro on intensity. Never thought I would say that ever. It's a Bizzaro world out there now..

Given the large scale features are similar I don't discount a similar outcome with plenty of land interaction. It needs to get north of PR for it to have any chance.

[gatorcane]

Significant south shift with the 18Z:

[SFLcane]

Guys, this is not going into the Bahamas it’s going on another self destruct mission. It seems Haiti has a magnet this season. 18z models are WAY South.

Nhc at 5 probably won’t even it keep alive

[tolakram]

TVCN is south enough that just a little more and one could see the LLC skipping south of Hispaniola. IMO anyway.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Guys, this is not going into the Bahamas it’s going on another self destruct mission. It seems Haiti has a magnet this season. 18z models are WAY South.

Nhc at 5 probably won’t even it keep alive

Let's avoid absolutes. It could and will shift more.

Interesting the UKMET took it far south enough to become a Caribbean cruiser.

[blp]

Significant south shift with the 18Z:

https://i.postimg.cc/Qd78QBtC/07-L-tracks-18z.png

Yeah inline with HWRF and HMON. The Globals are out to lunch again.

[Woofde]

I'm not usually a fan of model shear forecasts because they are often extremely wrong, but the GFS does suggest that there would be a lot less shear if it took a route South of Hispaniola.

[IcyTundra]

Guys, this is not going into the Bahamas it’s going on another self destruct mission. It seems Haiti has a magnet this season. 18z models are WAY South.

Nhc at 5 probably won’t even it keep alive

Considered the NHC didn't downgrade Fred until this morning I'd be very surprised if the NHC forcasts this to degenerate this early.

[aspen]

GEFS ensembles are really aggressive and show multiple hurricanes in the Bahamas heading to Florida. Most start out going south of the GAs, but suddenly turn north once they reach central DR.

[SFLcane]

Well see if the trends continue with the 18z guidance.

[SoupBone]

GEFS ensembles are really aggressive and show multiple hurricanes in the Bahamas heading to Florida. Most start out going south of the GAs, but suddenly turn north once they reach central DR.

Another year/season, another round of flip-flopping windshield wipers. Going to be a stressful several days for us watching this.

[captainbarbossa19]

Guys, this is not going into the Bahamas it’s going on another self destruct mission. It seems Haiti has a magnet this season. 18z models are WAY South.

Nhc at 5 probably won’t even it keep alive

Let's avoid absolutes. It could and will shift more.

Interesting the UKMET took it far south enough to become a Caribbean cruiser.

Yes. Many models are tracking this through the southern part of Hispaniola instead of through the middle like Fred. That is more in line like with Laura. I will not be surprised if this moves even more south though.

[Cat5James]

Guys, this is not going into the Bahamas it’s going on another self destruct mission. It seems Haiti has a magnet this season. 18z models are WAY South.

Nhc at 5 probably won’t even it keep alive

Let's avoid absolutes. It could and will shift more.

Interesting the UKMET took it far south enough to become a Caribbean cruiser.

Yes. Many models are tracking this through the southern part of Hispaniola instead of through the middle like Fred. That is more in line like with Laura. I will not be surprised if this moves even more south though.

Looks like its gaining latitude to me

[sma10]

Many 12z EPS members take Grace north of Hispaniola. Some very strong members bending west thru Florida

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Guys, this is not going into the Bahamas it’s going on another self destruct mission. It seems Haiti has a magnet this season. 18z models are WAY South.

Nhc at 5 probably won’t even it keep alive

Let's avoid absolutes. It could and will shift more.

Interesting the UKMET took it far south enough to become a Caribbean cruiser.

Yes. Many models are tracking this through the southern part of Hispaniola instead of through the middle like Fred. That is more in line like with Laura. I will not be surprised if this moves even more south though.

Not inconceivable; Laura was at a higher latitude at this longitude and still managed to go south of Cuba.