ATL: GRACE - Models

[AutoPenalti]

Wow that is a very sharp shift south.

[SoupBone]

The HWRF is gonna run Grace into Mexico. Too bad it ended.

[aspen]

A very wide range of outcomes here.

[ElectricStorm]

A very wide range of outcomes here.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/07L_gefs_latest.png

Seems like all the ones that make it into the gulf end up getting fairly strong...

[captainbarbossa19]

A very wide range of outcomes here.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/07L_gefs_latest.png

Seems like all the ones that make it into the gulf end up getting fairly strong...

Yep. This will most likely not end well if this goes into the Gulf.

[toad strangler]

Three of those members are big hits on S FL

[captainbarbossa19]

18z ICON is starting.

[SFLcane]

[AutoPenalti]

3 of those seem like center relocations.

[AtlanticWind]

There is really no definite Llc at the moment, the models really wont matter until this system gets a defined center.
(If it does, needs to slow down)

[jlauderdal]

Three of those members are big hits on S FL

When in doubt, take the westerly route, models are getting killed with the ridging last year and so far this season.

[kevin]

18z ICON still takes a hit from Hispaniola but it's farther north (seems to jump north just before landfall) and remains better intact than in 12z. TS at +84 hrs, 1006 mbar instead of 1010 mbar in 12z. Details in the short term will have a huge impact in the long term behavior of this storm.

[Patrick99]

Three of those members are big hits on S FL

When in doubt, take the westerly route, models are getting killed with the ridging last year and so far this season.

It's weird, for the longest time everything seemed to end up more north and east of the models. Last several years almost everything ends up more south/west.

[IcyTundra]

18Z ICON stronger going west through the Florida Straits into the GOM. According to the 18Z ICON strong ridging over the top of Grace looks like it would push Grace pretty far west in the GOM.

[lsuhurricane]

Despite a more southern trek, this ICON run manages to arrive in nearly the same location as 12z but stronger. Its almost like the DR landfall provides a tightening mechanism and spins it northward.

ETA: The 12z GFS run featured this process too.

[kevin]

18z ICON goes over the Keys (998 mbar, 108 hrs) and makes its way into the Gulf.

[kevin]

Despite a more southern trek, this ICON run manages to arrive in nearly the same location as 12z but stronger. Its almost like the DR landfall provides a tightening mechanism and spins it northward.

I know ICON isn't considered to be the top hurricane model or anything, but it does concern me that even with the more southern track at ~84 hrs, this run still manages to get Grace into the Gulf. At the moment models are having trouble with initialization since Grace isn't that well defined, but if this trend still continues tomorrow I think a Gulf track might be the most likely one.

[IcyTundra]

Despite a more southern trek, this ICON run manages to arrive in nearly the same location as 12z but stronger. Its almost like the DR landfall provides a tightening mechanism and spins it northward.

I know ICON isn't considered to be the top hurricane model or anything, but it does concern me that even with the more southern track at ~84 hrs, this run still manages to get Grace into the Gulf. At the moment models are having trouble with initialization since Grace isn't that well defined, but if this trend still continues tomorrow I think a Gulf track might be the most likely one.

If I remember correctly the ICON has been doing OK this year. Not great but better than it usually performs.

[kevin]

18z ICON just finished its run (18z and 06z only go until 120 hrs), but the most notable change compared to 12z is that the recent run is way stronger. Already a high-end TS (990 mbar) at 120 hrs, while 12z had a 1010 mbar TD.

[pgoss11]

I think at this point what we can take from the models so far is that the ridge is strong and a west to wnw track is most likely but until we know where the center is, none of these model runs mean much as far as where landfall might be. Crossing my fingers Haiti escapes this. Those poor people can’t catch a break.