ATL: GRACE - Remnants - Discussion

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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#481 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat Aug 14, 2021 4:04 pm

So basically NHC disco ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

...what’s more is that the actual convection and MLC is moving WNW, so I’m beginning to think as the LLC races westward, it will likely weaken and a new one might form further north as the main MLC slows down.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#482 Postby wxman57 » Sat Aug 14, 2021 4:04 pm

Jr0d wrote:Kind of reminds me of Erika in 2015. Was forecast to strengthen, had a lot of model support, even at one point was forecast to hit Florida as a hurricane but never got stacked, was moving very fast which inhibited it and ended up dissipating over Hispaniola.

With Wxman57 bullish on this one, someone has to give a bearish perspective.


The NHC shifted their track to right over my morning track, but I had it dissipating over Cuba. Go figure. They mention possible dissipation over Cuba in their discussion, as I've been mentioning. Not so sure that will happen. I suspect we'll see some major model shifts this evening (southward).
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#483 Postby Blinhart » Sat Aug 14, 2021 4:06 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Jr0d wrote:Kind of reminds me of Erika in 2015. Was forecast to strengthen, had a lot of model support, even at one point was forecast to hit Florida as a hurricane but never got stacked, was moving very fast which inhibited it and ended up dissipating over Hispaniola.

With Wxman57 bullish on this one, someone has to give a bearish perspective.


The NHC shifted their track to right over my morning track, but I had it dissipating over Cuba. Go figure. They mention possible dissipation over Cuba in their discussion, as I've been mentioning. Not so sure that will happen. I suspect we'll see some major model shifts this evening (southward).


So should see the GoM companies start evacuating their platforms by Thursday by what you are saying, since that is what you get paid for.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#484 Postby sma10 » Sat Aug 14, 2021 4:11 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:So basically NHC disco ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

...what’s more is that the actual convection and MLC is moving WNW, so I’m beginning to think as the LLC races westward, it will likely weaken and a new one might form further north as the main MLC slows down.


In a nutshell, they are saying we think there is a very weak, small surface circulation racing towards the west, and if it remains the main coc for Grace, then here is your forecast. Otherwise, stay tuned ....
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#485 Postby aspen » Sat Aug 14, 2021 4:13 pm

We desperately need recon to go through the main convective blobs to see if the LLC is actually located in there. If it is, then even more track adjustments are needed. If the center consolidates closer to 15.5-16.0N like recon kinda suggested, Grace might end up as a Caribbean Cruiser.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#486 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sat Aug 14, 2021 4:15 pm

So now that it's weaker than originally thought, it may move more southernly and avoid the shredder all together and move right through the carib into the gulf...
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#487 Postby IcyTundra » Sat Aug 14, 2021 4:16 pm

Grace's situation in the Caribbean kind of reminds me of Laura in the Caribbean last year. Center further south than originally expected and the track was expected to go north of the islands only for the track to slowly shift south. At this same longitude Laura was 1 degree further North.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#488 Postby chaser1 » Sat Aug 14, 2021 4:17 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:So now that it's weaker than originally thought, it may move more southernly and avoid the shredder all together and move right through the carib into the gulf...


Or....... it moving a bit more southerly suggesting that it may too track directly into the shredder :lol:
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#489 Postby chaser1 » Sat Aug 14, 2021 4:19 pm

SFLcane wrote:Most unsure nhc discussion I have ever read


Exactly what I was thinking too
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#490 Postby AtlanticWind » Sat Aug 14, 2021 4:19 pm

chaser1 wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:So now that it's weaker than originally thought, it may move more southernly and avoid the shredder all together and move right through the carib into the gulf...


Or....... it moving a bit more southerly suggesting that it may too track directly into the shredder :lol:

levi cowan actually showed on video a weaker storm may move more wnw in this situation
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#491 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Sat Aug 14, 2021 4:22 pm

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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#492 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sat Aug 14, 2021 4:22 pm

They should make a giant cone. :D It could do anything between going to the bahamas or hitting the Yucatan Peninsula
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#493 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Sat Aug 14, 2021 4:23 pm

AtlanticWind wrote:
chaser1 wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:So now that it's weaker than originally thought, it may move more southernly and avoid the shredder all together and move right through the carib into the gulf...


Or....... it moving a bit more southerly suggesting that it may too track directly into the shredder :lol:

levi cowan actually showed on video a weaker storm may move more wnw in this situation

The stronger the storm, the more affected it will be by that ridge to its north. (Stronger=south) I agree
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#494 Postby Keldeo1997 » Sat Aug 14, 2021 4:24 pm

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1411547047346442243




Old tweet but just a reminder that a track south of Hispaniola/over Jamaica will likely have no affect on Grace.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#495 Postby ElectricStorm » Sat Aug 14, 2021 4:26 pm

Looks like on IR the northern blob is turning NW a bit as the southern blob appeared... Odd
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#496 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sat Aug 14, 2021 4:31 pm

chaser1 wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:So now that it's weaker than originally thought, it may move more southernly and avoid the shredder all together and move right through the carib into the gulf...


Or....... it moving a bit more southerly suggesting that it may too track directly into the shredder :lol:


I agree with wxman that the models will probably shift south quite a bit tonight and track this south of Cuba because of how weak it will be....
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#497 Postby toad strangler » Sat Aug 14, 2021 4:32 pm

The 5PM NHC Cone center is right down the GA's pipe. It's certainly conceivable that Grace doesn't survive that kind of track.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#498 Postby pgoss11 » Sat Aug 14, 2021 4:34 pm

toad strangler wrote:The 5PM NHC Cone center is right down the GA's pipe. It's certainly conceivable that Grace doesn't survive that kind of track.

I think that track will likely change once we have a true center to actually track.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#499 Postby Kohlecane » Sat Aug 14, 2021 4:40 pm

Grace and its Blobs, I think a southerly track might be more in the making. Thinking it rides between the Peninsula and Jamaica. :wink:
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#500 Postby AtlanticWind » Sat Aug 14, 2021 4:41 pm

could be wrong, but the convection is headed right for P.R. , I am going out on a limb but I think this is going to skirt and may remain just offshore of Hispanola.

Follow the Convection. :D
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