ATL: GRACE - Models

[Cat5James]

Bahamas Bound for the HWRF, What was the last system that the HWRF did really well with ?

What was the last system any of these models have done will with? Seems like if it’s not a clear cut path with no terrain in the way and optimal atmospheric conditions these models are all over the place run to run.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Bahamas Bound for the HWRF, What was the last system that the HWRF did really well with ?

We are going to find out very soon. Watch for when Grace passes PR. If it goes over it or north, it gives the HWRF credit. If it goes south of the Island, then a more south track would become a likely scenario.

[HurricaneFrances04]

[Category5Kaiju]

Whoa. Code lemon now, and the model ensembles are now showing a possibility for Grace to dip southwest through the Caribbean Sea? What is going on

[Nimbus]

Must be a complex setup. One gust of wind blows the wrong way and we get a completely different outcome. Kind of crazy the models can't figure it out only 48 hours out though.

Are we seeing a real time butterfly affect with the models? The notion that a butterfly can flap its wings and affect the weather. Not sure if there is truth the the theory in space/time but it’s about the best explanation that I can come up with. Chaos theory at its finest.


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Even if you believe in determinism for modeling storms the choice of data has to remove randomness from the evolution of the analysis. You would think the higher definition models would always do best but there are more branching errors with higher density data.

[SouthFLTropics]

Must be a complex setup. One gust of wind blows the wrong way and we get a completely different outcome. Kind of crazy the models can't figure it out only 48 hours out though.

Are we seeing a real time butterfly affect with the models? The notion that a butterfly can flap its wings and affect the weather. Not sure if there is truth the the theory in space/time but it’s about the best explanation that I can come up with. Chaos theory at its finest.


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Even if you believe in determinism for modeling storms the choice of data has to remove randomness from the evolution of the analysis. You would think the higher definition models would always do best but there are more branching errors with higher density data.

Why did I just read this post in Jeff Goldblum’s voice? Dr. Malcolm anyone???


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[Blown Away]

18z HWRF 96 Hours... @3.5 degrees N & @5 degrees E of 12z... Much, much slower... 96 hours appears to find better conditions??

[Woofde]

Looks like another "wait and see" storm. Models are all over the place again with no consistency what so ever. Deja vu.

[jlauderdal]

Bahamas Bound for the HWRF, What was the last system that the HWRF did really well with ?

It did a great job with katrina on the approach to se florida, that was a few presidents ago

[AxaltaRacing24]

The NHC just confirmed what we have been seeing.

[Deshaunrob17]

Neither of the two hurricane models are initializing Grace properly. The HMON pressure is off. The HWRF satellite is off- Grace has a lot of feeder band activity extending into the Southern WiNdwards.
Although, the HWRF started with the right pressure.

[AutoPenalti]

That HWRF run is a little bit weird, it slows down almost immediately and heads NW before PR.

[SouthFLTropics]

The NHC 8pm position is well north of the 5pm position for a storm that is moving 270 at 23MPH. I think we’re getting a center relocation on approach to PR.


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[aspen]

The NHC 8pm position is well north of the 5pm position for a storm that is moving 270 at 23MPH. I think we’re getting a center relocation on approach to PR.


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I don’t think the center was ever that far south. Recon never bothered to check the main convective mass, so they went with what they thought was the main center, leading to all the tracks and models shifting south. We’ll need to wait until recon tomorrow determined the precise location of the LLC for any model to matter.

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF about to lay the smack down to Key Largo…976mb and deepening.


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[Kohlecane]

HWRF hits wall at 117h and goes West

[Blown Away]

18z HWRF... Big shift N with Cat 2 @105 mph hurricane into Upper Keys...

[Kohlecane]

https://i.imgur.com/fOD5epI.gif
18z HWRF... Big shift N with Cat 2 @105 mph hurricane into Upper Keys...

Could only imagine what we would be looking at if this run went another 48 hours

[tolakram]

18Z Euro

[Spacecoast]

https://i.imgur.com/fOD5epI.gif
18z HWRF... Big shift N with Cat 2 @105 mph hurricane into Upper Keys...

Could only imagine what we would be looking at if this run went another 48 hours

HWRF looks remarkably similar to 12z CMC run,which ends up N gulf (Alabama / Mississippi)

Aside from a couple of 12z EMCF ensemble members, the 12z CMC, and 18z HWRF are currently the northernmost tracks.