ATL: GRACE - Remnants - Discussion

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AtlanticWind
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#541 Postby AtlanticWind » Sat Aug 14, 2021 7:29 pm

Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/YFZQq6y.gif
NHC says due W at 8pm and IMO the convection is moving WNW-NW...

Still really booking . Should slow down soon.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#542 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 14, 2021 7:35 pm

saved loop
Image
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#543 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat Aug 14, 2021 7:38 pm

tolakram wrote:saved loop
https://i.imgur.com/UT7Ys9m.gif

super disorganized
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#544 Postby Spacecoast » Sat Aug 14, 2021 7:46 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#545 Postby IsabelaWeather » Sat Aug 14, 2021 7:48 pm

cycloneye wrote:3.5.

A. 07L (GRACE)

B. 14/2330Z

C. 16.4N

D. 60.4W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.5/3.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...10/10 BANDING AROUND THE LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 3.5. MET AND
PT AGREE AND ARE EQUAL TO 3.5 BASED ON A DEVELOPMENT TREND IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TUGGLE



If it has a dvorak of 3.5 wouldnt that equate to like 55knots? I'm sure the winds arent that high so I am a bit confused
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#546 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 14, 2021 7:55 pm

saves SW loop

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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#547 Postby skyline385 » Sat Aug 14, 2021 8:01 pm

IsabelaWeather wrote:
cycloneye wrote:3.5.

A. 07L (GRACE)

B. 14/2330Z

C. 16.4N

D. 60.4W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.5/3.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...10/10 BANDING AROUND THE LLCC YIELDS A DT OF 3.5. MET AND
PT AGREE AND ARE EQUAL TO 3.5 BASED ON A DEVELOPMENT TREND IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TUGGLE



If it has a dvorak of 3.5 wouldnt that equate to like 55knots? I'm sure the winds arent that high so I am a bit confused


dvorak isnt always very accurate...
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#548 Postby Spacecoast » Sat Aug 14, 2021 8:03 pm

From RAMMB / CIRA:
FWIW - Not sure about the accuracy of this experimental graphic?

Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis (Experimental)
Image
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#549 Postby Nimbus » Sat Aug 14, 2021 8:10 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:I wonder if we can get ASCAT again, there’s a chance there might be another vorticity on that southern lobe that seems to be developing...


You mean the southern part of the old wave just off the south American coast line?
Western Caribbean bound?
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#550 Postby msbee » Sat Aug 14, 2021 8:24 pm

Current conditions in St. Maarten:
Wind picking up.
Thunder in the distance.
Lightning in the South.
No rain.
Cockatoo, dogs, and humans tucked in for the night.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#551 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 14, 2021 8:26 pm

msbee wrote:Current conditions in St. Maarten:
Wind picking up.
Thunder in the distance.
Lightning in the South.
No rain.
Cockatoo, dogs, and humans tucked in for the night.


Hopefully nothing bad happens there Barbara. Stay safe.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#552 Postby Blown Away » Sat Aug 14, 2021 8:29 pm

msbee wrote:Current conditions in St. Maarten:
Wind picking up.
Thunder in the distance.
Lightning in the South.
No rain.
Cockatoo, dogs, and humans tucked in for the night.


Stay safe, super convection blob heading your way!
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#553 Postby msbee » Sat Aug 14, 2021 8:36 pm

cycloneye wrote:
msbee wrote:Current conditions in St. Maarten:
Wind picking up.
Thunder in the distance.
Lightning in the South.
No rain.
Cockatoo, dogs, and humans tucked in for the night.


Hopefully nothing bad happens there Barbara. Stay safe.

Thanks Luis. Same to you.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#554 Postby aspen » Sat Aug 14, 2021 8:36 pm

The next 24 hours will be critical. Whatever Grace does, and whatever recon finds, will seal its fate. Either it ends up like Fred, gets north of the islands and becomes a big problem, or it survives the trek through the islands like Laura.

I hope we get clear answers by the end of the day tomorrow because this storm makes me wanna pull my hair out. However, I just got a haircut, so I don’t have much hair to pull out anyways.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#555 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 14, 2021 8:37 pm

You can see in this WV loop how the clockwise upper-level (anticyclonic) flow building over Fred and it is this flow that should cause some problems for Grace should she not behave and head into the Bahamas:

Image
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#556 Postby ElectricStorm » Sat Aug 14, 2021 8:39 pm

Looks like that southern blob is starting to die out
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#557 Postby storminabox » Sat Aug 14, 2021 8:41 pm

This storms appearance has really deteriorated since this morning. Now it’s showing it’s true colors unlike earlier today.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#558 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Sat Aug 14, 2021 8:42 pm

gatorcane wrote:You can see in this WV loop how the clockwise upper-level (anticyclonic) flow building over Fred and it is this flow that should cause some problems for Grace should she not behave and head into the Bahamas:

https://i.postimg.cc/hG802zqM/goes16-wv-mid-watl.gif


The only problem is that if Grace finds a way into the Gulf, conditions could be super favorable. If she goes north of Hispaniola, she may encounter shear initially, but it will probably not be enough to stop her from getting into the Gulf.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#559 Postby Kohlecane » Sat Aug 14, 2021 8:50 pm

Don't follow blob of convection... :) But IR seems to have jogged SW for a frame towards the end in my view, then again is this even real lol
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#560 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat Aug 14, 2021 8:54 pm

storminabox wrote:This storms appearance has really deteriorated since this morning. Now it’s showing it’s true colors unlike earlier today.

It should pick up during DMAX.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
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ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged


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