ATL: GRACE - Models

[captainbarbossa19]

Whatever is left of Grace, the GFS is sending into Texas. Shift back north again. I give up.

[IcyTundra]

HMON running now

[SoupBone]

Whatever is left of Grace, the GFS is sending into Texas. Shift back north again. I give up.

Not much left but some rain into Corpus Christi.

[AutoPenalti]

So now that mini-ridge is factored in too.

Yikes.

[Kohlecane]

HMON Deepens this quicker than 18z up through 12 hours

[captainbarbossa19]

Whatever is left of Grace, the GFS is sending into Texas. Shift back north again. I give up.

Not much left but some rain into Corpus Christi.

I could use some rain, so that would not hurt my feelings. However, I am skeptical of that run because the GFS shows Grace under an anticyclone whenever she is in the central Gulf. I have a feeling that the intensity swings are not over yet.

[ElectricStorm]

Little jump to the N there on HMON, let's see if it avoids Hispaniola

[Kohlecane]

HWRF running int around 1014mb

[IcyTundra]

CMC has whatever is left of Grace going into extreme South Texas.

[ElectricStorm]

HMON 1002mb into PR

[StPeteMike]

Location (north more/south more) of Grace could be impacted by 97L. I would assume a more structured and stronger 97L would open up a weakness for Grace to travel further north while if the invest just dies off without much else happening, a track through the islands seems more likely.

Maybe more professional members can chime in if this is a possibility.

[Kohlecane]

HMON 1002mb into PR

About the same location entering PR as well

[ElectricStorm]

Unless it makes a sharp turn W, looks like it's going north of Hispaniola on HMON

[ElectricStorm]

So the GFS doesn't do much with 96L and Grace goes right over the islands. HMON develops 96L and Grace is going N of Hispaniola so far. Interesting

[lsuhurricane]

Both HWRF and HMON appear to clear DR to the north. Not sure how though

[BobHarlem]

Somehow HWRF Does a trapeze act and avoids PR to the North just by slipping to the east of it.

[SouthFLTropics]

The HMON and HWRF are definitely keeping the model watching interesting. Just when I think I can go to sleep they suck me back in for a few more frames.


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[Cat5James]

Both HWRF and HMON appear to clear DR to the north. Not sure how though

By continuing to gain latitude.

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like it does end up clipping DR on the north side on HMON

[SouthFLTropics]

HMON at 51 hours is almost in the exact same spot as 18z.


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