ATL: HENRI - Models

[Subtrop]

Only model runs here.

[ElectricStorm]

HMON is running on this now so we'll see what it does. Looks like HWRF is running as well

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like HMON is developing this one. 1000mb at hour 36. Peaks at 993mb at hour 45 east of Bermuda

[ElectricStorm]

HWRF makes this a hurricane

[LarryWx]

The 0Z Euro ens says the US E coast may have to watch 96L in about a week as all of those members offshore the SE are from 96L (out of 51 members though):

[AlphaToOmega]

The 0Z HWRF takes this to a 973-millibar 93-knot hurricane.

[aspen]

The HWRF loves 96L. Its 06z run also shows rather quick development and it intensifying into a hurricane by 60hr out.

[LarryWx]

Any potential east coast threat from 96L may be higher early next week vs late this week. The 6Z Euro ens is similar to the 0Z with again a handful of threatening members out of 51. So, though not a high threat right now (6Z GEFS still says hardly any threat from this), it will be interesting to see whether or not this later evolves into a significant threat, especially NC north.

[Spacecoast]

[aspen]

12z HWRF now barely even develops this.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z Euro ens is back to this being hardly any threat to the US.

[Homie J]

HWRF peaks at 110 kts and 948mb.

[OuterBanker]

Lol, windshield wipers on high.

[LarryWx]

The 18Z Euro ens goes back to having a few US threats from 96L, similar to the 0Z and 6Z, with 3 members showing a TS+ moving toward the SE US at the end of the run though keep in mind that's only 6% of the members thus making them outliers:

[ElectricStorm]

Not much on HMON thru hour 60

HWRF already down to 997mb at hour 30... it's probably gonna blow it up again

[ElectricStorm]

HWRF bombs this into a major

[Kingarabian]

HWRF bombs this into a major

Plausible despite the models struggles this year.

[aspen]

06z HWRF is weaker. It shows intensification into a Cat 2 south of Bermuda, but then weakens and struggles with shear afterwards. Much more realistic than a 955-945mb Cat 3/4.

[ElectricStorm]

HWRF bombs this into a major... Yet again

[IcyTundra]

I might be crazy but it looks like the 0Z ICON has Henri making landfall in Masachusetts next Sunday. I doubt this verifies but if it does it sure would be an interesting track.