ATL: GRACE - Remnants - Discussion

[aspen]

Bruh Grace is gonna take the exact same track as Fred…what are the odds? Three systems in a row getting tangled in the Greater Antilles. Is Ida next?

[GCANE]

Prayers for Haiti.
A TS is not what is needed on top of the death and destruction.

[GCANE]

Quick check of synoptic forecast.
Looks this will be under an organizing anticyclone by the time it gets to Haiti.
It'll be entraining high CAPE air in the east Carib at that time.
Not good for Haiti.

[underthwx]

Yes, more of a wave than a TS. Models are consistent in building a ridge across the northern Gulf Coast post-Fred. That may drive Grace west to northern Mexico or south Texas. Time will tell how it looks when it reaches the Gulf. Gotta get on the next forecast. Been here looking at the tropics since 4:15am. 8 more 12-14 hr early shifts to go.

It's lonely at the top bro....don't work too hard

[GCANE]

Seeing significant moistening of the air ahead of Grace

[aspen]

Quick check of synoptic forecast.
Looks this will be under an organizing anticyclone by the time it gets to Haiti.
It'll be entraining high CAPE air in the east Carib at that time.
Not good for Haiti.

Based on its track and structure, there’s a solid chance it’ll never be able to take advantage of those conditions and will remain disorganized slop — only slightly better than an organized TS, because rain and mudslides are by far the biggest concern regardless of intensity.

[NDG]

I am eating crow this morning, I was at the beach all day yesterday watching the recon on my phone having a hard time finding a well defined LLC, my guess is that it had fallen apart by the time recon got there.
This morning looking at vis satellite it does appear that it has an LLC, or at least a well defined one.
I said I am eating crow because shear got to eat a lot quicker than I had thought. Conditions are not ripe yet over the MDR, that's for sure. Surface pressures in the background have to fall.

[Jr0d]

Hopefully it quickly passes through Haiti, after the earthquake floods and mudslides would be even more devastating.

Grace seems to have ignored model guidance so far when it comes to forward speed.

[pgoss11]

Prayers for Haiti.
A TS is not what is needed on top of the death and destruction.

Another gut punch to a suffering people. Heartbreaking.

[GCANE]

Multi-satellite IR analysis of LL winds

[tolakram]

saved loop

[Sciencerocks]

[ElectricStorm]

This things got a lot of land in front of it. I stand by my prediction of a remnant low entering the gulf. I do think the ceiling for Grace in the gulf is higher than it is for Fred, if it makes it there.

[msbee]

Good morning
Thankfully St Maarten dodged the bullet with Grace. It was basically a non event, which is welcome news to all of us who are still suffering PTSD from Irma.
I pray Grace is as kind to PR, VI, DR, and most importantly Haiti.
The bird goes back outside this morning.

[aspen]

I have no idea where the center of this thing is, nor can I tell if it’s moving NW or due west.

[AutoPenalti]

Waking up this morning and this is still moving west???

[Hypercane_Kyle]

You can see westerly shear starting to impact Grace. Look at how there's a "wall" in between Puerto Rico and DR.

[jhpigott]

Nice convective blow up just E of PR

[aspen]

I’m very surprised there hasn’t been recon since yesterday afternoon’s flight. I haven’t even seen anyone post the NHC recon schedule, so I don’t know if they’re even bothering with 6-hour fixes with Grace. The more time without recon, the more uncertainty there will be.

[gatorcane]

The frequency of posting in the Grace threads has plummeted since last night. Looks like many Florida posters have poofed

Looks disorganized and very likely to get disrupted even more passing over or very near the the Greater Antilles. If she can make it into the Gulf in tact, conditions do appear favorable though so we will need to keep an eye on that.