ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tailgater]

Motion seems more westward atm, thinking Destin area might be in line for Fred, I’d like to hear what CGane thinks about conditions ahead.

[Hurricane Mike]

Fred looks better than it has in days, if ever.

[NDG]

Finding 42 knot winds at flight level so far.

URNT15 KNHC 151321
AF305 1306A FRED HDOB 22 20210815
131200 2616N 08424W 9252 00776 0111 +203 //// 130025 026 017 002 01
131230 2617N 08423W 9249 00779 0110 +207 +204 128024 025 018 002 00
131300 2618N 08421W 9245 00783 0111 +207 +201 131024 025 020 001 00
131330 2619N 08420W 9248 00781 0110 +209 +197 133024 025 020 002 00
131400 2620N 08419W 9249 00779 0111 +209 +191 128024 025 019 001 00
131430 2621N 08418W 9249 00779 0112 +205 +200 122023 024 018 003 00
131500 2622N 08416W 9246 00782 0112 +202 //// 123025 026 019 003 01
131530 2623N 08415W 9250 00779 0115 +196 //// 127030 033 020 005 01
131600 2625N 08414W 9246 00783 0117 +195 //// 127036 037 020 003 01
131630 2626N 08413W 9241 00788 0119 +191 //// 131037 039 021 004 01
131700 2627N 08411W 9251 00782 0119 +196 //// 130036 038 024 001 01
131730 2628N 08410W 9249 00784 0121 +194 //// 122036 037 023 002 01
131800 2629N 08409W 9248 00784 0121 +193 //// 117038 039 027 005 05
131830 2630N 08408W 9249 00784 0118 +199 +198 118040 042 025 005 00
131900 2631N 08407W 9247 00787 0120 +196 //// 115033 038 024 005 01
131930 2632N 08405W 9250 00783 0119 +205 +195 111031 032 022 004 00
132000 2633N 08404W 9252 00782 0117 +209 +191 110033 033 024 004 00
132030 2634N 08403W 9250 00784 0120 +204 +193 116036 038 024 006 00
132100 2635N 08402W 9244 00790 0120 +200 +196 118039 039 024 005 00
132130 2636N 08401W 9250 00786 0126 +185 //// 124041 041 024 006 01
$$

[ronjon]

Motion seems more westward atm, thinking Destin area might be in line for Fred, I’d like to hear what CGane thinks about conditions ahead.

Its actually N-NW at 9 mph. Appalachacola might be more likely at this point. We'll see where the track is at the 11 am advisory.

[skyline385]

Fred looks better than it has in days, if ever.

Classic Gulf, probably blew up running parallel to the Gulf Stream north of Cuba. Looking at the cone, It is also going to head through 31C waters now...

[NDG]

12z SHIPS analyzed shear to be near 16 knots over Fred, forecasts it to go up to near 20 knots out of the SSW before landfall, Fred may take advantage of not so strong shear and become at least a strong TS before landfall. IMO.

[NDG]

52 knot winds at flight level but not making it to the ground yet.

RNT15 KNHC 151331
AF305 1306A FRED HDOB 23 20210815
132200 2637N 08400W 9247 00789 0125 +191 //// 126042 042 023 005 01
132230 2638N 08358W 9251 00787 0130 +181 //// 125045 046 026 004 01
132300 2639N 08357W 9250 00789 0132 +180 //// 124043 046 030 005 01
132330 2640N 08356W 9249 00792 0135 +176 //// 125044 045 023 006 01
132400 2641N 08355W 9254 00788 //// +177 //// 129046 047 024 006 01
132430 2642N 08354W 9248 00795 //// +177 //// 128046 048 023 009 01
132500 2643N 08352W 9248 00794 //// +176 //// 130047 050 027 020 01
132530 2644N 08351W 9245 00797 //// +176 //// 131039 043 032 024 01
132600 2645N 08350W 9240 00801 //// +175 //// 133039 042 034 029 01
132630 2646N 08349W 9259 00784 //// +174 //// 134050 052 035 030 01
132700 2647N 08347W 9239 00804 //// +173 //// 145046 050 027 029 01
132730 2648N 08346W 9240 00810 //// +178 //// 128037 042 024 012 01
132800 2649N 08345W 9271 00775 //// +183 //// 125048 050 027 011 05
132830 2650N 08344W 9258 00790 0138 +192 //// 126046 048 022 005 01
132900 2651N 08343W 9244 00804 0137 +195 //// 126045 045 022 005 01
132930 2652N 08341W 9251 00797 0137 +196 //// 126043 045 022 005 01
133000 2653N 08340W 9251 00799 0138 +196 //// 128042 044 022 004 01
133030 2654N 08339W 9252 00799 0141 +191 //// 125041 042 020 004 01
133100 2655N 08338W 9247 00804 0140 +195 //// 126040 041 020 003 01
133130 2656N 08337W 9254 00798 0139 +200 //// 126042 043 019 004 01
$$

[skyline385]

It's going to have 24 hours over 30-31C waters. Let's hope the shear NHC talked about persists otherwise the panhandle won't have much time to react...

[Visioen]

Fred looks better than it has in days, if ever.

He has looked better before. A big part of the circulation is naked now.

[NDG]

Fred looks better than it has in days, if ever.

He has looked better before. A big part of the circulation is naked now.

I agree that this is the best Fred has looked, will continue to improve through tomorrow. When it finally developed a surface circulation S of PR half of its circulation was also exposed also when it was south of DR before coming ashore due to the NW shear.

[skyline385]

Fred looks better than it has in days, if ever.

He has looked better before. A big part of the circulation is naked now.

Not sure where you seeing the naked circulation, you can see convection completely cover the circulation overnight here

https://imgur.com/a/wEzjh5y

EDIT: nvm, i see the exposed west side now. Gotta have some coffee before I get down to this lol

[tropicwatch]

Dissapointed the HH went west instead of south where the heavier winds will be.

[wxman57]

Those strong FL winds are not part of Fred's circulation. They're not at the surface. Surface obs suggest a depression, though NHC might upgrade it to a 35kt TS. Central pressure of 1008mb doesn't support strong winds at the surface.

[Stormybajan]

Those strong FL winds are not part of Fred's circulation. They're not at the surface. Surface obs suggest a depression, though NHC might upgrade it to a 35kt TS.

Not might, they've done so already

[TallyTracker]

The shift to the east is gonna result in much higher rain totals over the eastern FL Panhandle which is completely saturated by recent heavy rains. The rivers around here have been flooding for much of the past month. Flash flooding is going to be a major problem.

[tolakram]

Tampa radar down?

[tolakram]

Key West, saved loop

[Hurricane Mike]

Atleast he's free of land. That's helping the convection fire big time.

[SunnyThoughts]

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of the Florida Panhandle from Navarre to the Wakulla/
Jefferson County line.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of the Florida Panhandle from the Alabama/Florida border to
Navarre

[robbielyn]

Tampa radar down?

Yes and will continue to be down. They are ordering parts.