ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

Tampa radar down?

Yes and will continue to be down. They are ordering parts.

Ordering parts? Good grief.

[BobHarlem]

 https://twitter.com/NWSTampaBay/status/1426904316053426177

[skyline385]

https://twitter.com/NWSTampaBay/status/1426904316053426177

No Amazon Same-day for Tampa?

[NDG]

Those strong FL winds are not part of Fred's circulation. They're not at the surface. Surface obs suggest a depression, though NHC might upgrade it to a 35kt TS. Central pressure of 1008mb doesn't support strong winds at the surface.

The surrounding surface pressure environment is high, in the 1017mb-1020mb range.

[HeeBGBz]

Tampa radar down?

Yes and will continue to be down. They are ordering parts.

Ordering parts? Good grief.

I recommend WD40 and ducktape.

[SunnyThoughts]

Recon finding 1007, down from 1008 last pass. Pretty much due west of last pass as well.

[NDG]

Saved radar loop.

[LarryWx]

This is setting up to bring unneeded heavy rain for the Atlanta area. Most of that area has had above normal rainfall this summer and thus this could be setting them up for flooding concerns. The NHC projected track is the type of track that often brings them multiple inches of rain within a short period. Fortunately, it looks to not be a slow mover, however (more like average speed for a TC in that area in August).

[BobHarlem]

Recon finding 1007, down from 1008 last pass. Pretty much due west of last pass as well.

Fred making a run for strengthening, I'd expect a strong TS at landfall, a bit stronger than the forecast.

[MGC]

Zombie Fred back from the dead. Could be a strong TS at landfall. Emerald Coast look out!.......MGC

[Blinhart]

Zombie Fred back from the dead. Could be a strong TS at landfall. Emerald Coast look out!.......MGC

With the fuel in the GoM, wouldn't be shocked to see a full Hurricane cat 1/2 if he can get organized quick enough.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I told ya'll there was no Fat Lady in sight warmin' up her singing voice.
There is a real possibility that Fred can find really good conditions the last 24hrs. Be ready for that possibility if you are in the watch/warning areas.

[Sciencerocks]

[tailgater]

Motion seems more westward atm, thinking Destin area might be in line for Fred, I’d like to hear what CGane thinks about conditions ahead.

Its actually N-NW at 9 mph. Appalachacola might be more likely at this point. We'll see where the track is at the 11 am advisory.

It’s actually moving wnw per recon, at the moment but as I said I expect it turn Nnw toward Destin.

[toad strangler]

The FREDster is suddenly more intriguing than Grace. Only in the tropics.

[gatorcane]

Fred’s center clearly visible now. Fred is taking advantage of more favorable conditions which we knew would be there for him in the Gulf. Looks like he is organizing pretty quickly as convection begins to wrap:

[psyclone]

Fred looks like an early June east gulf slop storm. unless it can wrap up, all of the weather will be right sided in a long, curved band east of the center. Should that remain the case, following the center only serves as a reference point to indicate the western extent of the bad weather. Someone could get some really heavy training rain in that band if that makes it onshore. Great heat busting, porch sitting squalls but a flash flood risk could evolve somewhere up that way. My gut instinct says lean right of the forecast for the most significant impacts.. As for the Tampa radar, it has been down for 2 days now. it's amazing they can't get parts quicker for a fix. thank goodness for local tampa bay news network radars to fill in the gaps

[Chemmers]

Look like the wind shear has decreased to 5 to 10 knot should help it wrap all the way around

[rolltide]

It does appear that the wind shear has decreased a bit. It also looks like the T-storms on the north side are trying to start wrapping around the center.

[SunnyThoughts]

https://twitter.com/Channing_TV/status/ ... 9535045641


Not sure I"d call it an "eye" but you can definitely see the center for sure.