ATL: FRED - Models

[StormPyrate]

The Icon model seems most reasonable to me with what we currently seeing evolve, can someone post the UKmet?

the Icon has been ... not bad so far this year

[BobHarlem]

HMON Still on the strong cat 1/cat 2 hurricane kick, this time to Laguna Beach, FL on the 18z

[Woofde]

HMON Still on the strong cat 1/cat 2 hurricane kick, this time to Laguna Beach, FL on the 18z

It's been very consistent. The last 3 runs have all been 980mb to 983mb into the Panhandle.

[gatorcane]

The GFS handled Fred quite well overall, got to give the model some kudos. Yes it had some runs here and there that showed a possible TS into South Florida or the vicinity of and even took Fred north of Hispaniola but overall it did well. Take a look at what it had 5 days ago with one of the run’s for today’s forecast. Not bad!

[Cat5James]

The GFS handled Fred quite well overall, got to give the model some kudos. Yes it had some runs here and there that showed a possible TS into South Florida or the vicinity of and even took Fred north of Hispaniola but overall it did well. Take a look at what it had 5 days ago with one of the run’s for today’s forecast. Not bad!

https://i.postimg.cc/zf3MhwMs/gfs-z850-vort-watl-23.png

Better then the Euro for sure... very disappointed in the "king" the past couple seasons

[toad strangler]

The GFS handled Fred quite well overall, got to give the model some kudos. Yes it had some runs here and there that showed a possible TS into South Florida or the vicinity of and even took Fred north of Hispaniola but overall it did well. Take a look at what it had 5 days ago with one of the run’s for today’s forecast. Not bad!

https://i.postimg.cc/zf3MhwMs/gfs-z850-vort-watl-23.png

We know you love the GFS Gator and will pump it up whenever possible. Nothing wrong with that!

[bella_may]

Any chance this shifts closer to MS? Inland areas here still haven’t recovered from Zeta

[Frank P]

[Frank P]

Any chance this shifts closer to MS? Inland areas here still haven’t recovered from Zeta

See above

[BobHarlem]

0z GFS going for strong TS/borderline cat 1 hurricane with Fred

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like HMON has a Cat 1 coming into the FL panhandle

[BobHarlem]

HMON Cat 1to the panhandle. (Stronger than 18z)

[ElectricStorm]

HWRF has Fred peaking at 993mb before landfall so likely a strong TS. Fred's down but he's not out yet. I think there's a decent chance we're looking at a strong TS or Cat 1 hurricane at landfall in a few days

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z GFS coming in stronger with Fred at landfall. Could see this reaching 55 knots.

[tolakram]

12Z GFS

[NDG]

Indeed, this is the strongest the GFS has had with Fred. I imagine the 12z HWRF will be even stronger than this.
This doesn't look like a heavy sheared system at landfall.

[BobHarlem]

12z HMON Still showing a cat 1 into the Panhandle, slightly stronger than last run, but not by much.

[tolakram]

HWRF so far

[tolakram]

993

[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET: quite a bit east of the NHC track with it crossing over the FL/GA/AL point and then moving NNE through GA rather than AL:

TROPICAL STORM FRED ANALYSED POSITION : 25.6N 84.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.08.2021 0 25.6N 84.6W 1010 30
0000UTC 16.08.2021 12 26.7N 86.0W 1006 36
1200UTC 16.08.2021 24 28.0N 86.1W 1004 35
0000UTC 17.08.2021 36 29.3N 85.8W 1001 38
1200UTC 17.08.2021 48 31.1N 85.0W 1005 30
0000UTC 18.08.2021 60 33.3N 84.0W 1007 24
1200UTC 18.08.2021 72 37.3N 82.3W 1012 15
0000UTC 19.08.2021 84 39.3N 80.2W 1014 25
1200UTC 19.08.2021 96 CEASED TRACKING