ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[skyline385]

https://twitter.com/Channing_TV/status/1426951249535045641


Not sure I"d call it an "eye" but you can definitely see the center for sure.

yea the LLC still seems to be slightly exposed which probably is good news for the panhandle...

[TallyTracker]

Fred looks like an early June east gulf slop storm. unless it can wrap up, all of the weather will be right sided in a long, curved band east of the center. Should that remain the case, following the center only serves as a reference point to indicate the western extent of the bad weather. Someone could get some really heavy training rain in that band if that makes it onshore. Great heat busting, porch sitting squalls but a flash flood risk could evolve somewhere up that way. My gut instinct says lean right of the forecast for the most significant impacts.. As for the Tampa radar, it has been down for 2 days now. it's amazing they can't get parts quicker for a fix. thank goodness for local tampa bay news network radars to fill in the gaps

The NWS Tallahassee has most of the middle to eastern Panhandle and south AL/GA getting 2-8 inches of rain on saturated soils. It seems they think the main banding will line up from Panama City to Apalachicola with 6-8 inches currently forecast.

[tolakram]

I think Fred's biggest issue now is not shear but dry air.

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1426968163640430593

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1426968167079841793

[Nimbus]

The upper level low is weakening my the minute and Fred will likely overcome the shear just before landfall.
Serious rain potential in an are that doesn't need it.

[johngaltfla]

The Zombie storm is back. Bleh, we don't need the rain and I doubt the panhandle does either. Stay safe up there y'all!

[tailgater]

Hot Tower firing nearly on top the center, just a tad to the NE tugged the center right underneath. Kinda cool to watch hope the Florida and Georgians don’t get too big of asurprise but as stated before lots dry air to the west of Fred should keep it from bombing

[skyline385]

Tower popping through center and convection trying to wrap up the western side

[abajan]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/pPSKb9TBkdQ[/youtube]

[N2FSU]

NWS Tallahassee just did their storm update for local Emergency Management, key takeaways:

*The center looks to be moving more NNW vs NW now, meaning there's a good chance of another eastward shift at the 5:00p update.

* Convection has recently started building near the center, indicating it's probably strengthening.

*The Weather Prediction Center will be upgrading the flood potential for the Panhandle to a 3 out of 4 risk level. Rainfall amounts of 4"-8" with isolated amount of 12" is possible.

[NDG]

There goes Fred!

[Steve]

As I’m sure people who have been paying way more attention than me know, the mesoscales have been hinting at better structure at around landfall. We will see if Fred can be yet another system that wraps best between 28-33N. This is the fourth time I brought it up, so maybe the 4th storm to possibly mature and peak in the subtropics. This remains to be seen if it’s a trend for the season. I know it’s a side plot kind of thing, but it still has my eye.

[psyclone]

center looks to be tracking barely west of due north before that convective blob covered it

[toad strangler]

There goes Fred!

https://i.imgur.com/DhDplBD.gif

That poppage means business.

[ScottNAtlanta]

There goes Fred!

https://i.imgur.com/DhDplBD.gif

That poppage means business.

Insta-CDO

[HurricaneBelle]

Nasty squall moving south to north through Pinellas right now, gusts of 42 and 59 recorded in St. Pete in the last 10-15 minutes.

[tolakram]

[Sciencerocks]

[TallyTracker]

It looks like Fred is traveling with the shear vector now. I’ve seen a number of storms in this area ramp up by doing that. Michael of course was the most dramatic example. Not expecting anything like that, but starting to prep for something more than originally anticipated. Cat 1 hurricane is certainly on the table with 24+ hours to go.