ATL: GRACE - Remnants - Discussion

[UTSARoadrunner4]

Grace reminds me of Hanna of last year & Harvey. If the ridge strengthen like others are mentioning then I could see this pulling off. One question though, Hispaniola helped Isaias get going instead of destroying it like it just did with Fred? What conditions caused Hispaniola to aid in Isaias’s development and is that possible with Grace?

[edu2703]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1426994198138417152

[Sciencerocks]

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1426999248218849280

[wxman57]

NHC put the center at 17.3N/66.8W at 18Z. Definitely nothing there according to recon. They'll have to adjust their track southward.

Are you thinking it will interact with the Yucatan?

Definitely, as a wave it could bring squalls to the northern Yucatan Thu/Fri. I'm anxious to see what the NHC does at 4pm. They can't keep their current track. It's way south of that track and it's not even a TS. Fast-moving waves often produce 40-45 mph winds, but they're not called tropical storms because they lack a well-defined circulation.

[Category5Kaiju]

So based on Eric Webb’s observation, it looks like there’s a remote chance that Grace’s disorganization could actually help it in the long run and allow the core to miss Hispaniola to the south? Hmm…I am going to keep a close eye on this for the next couple of days; if anything, based on the current shear maps, missing Hispaniola to the north would cause the system to run into a TUTT, but to the south atm there doesn’t seem to be much deep layer shear. We’ll see.

[AlphaToOmega]

5:00 PM AST Sun Aug 15
Location: 17.0°N 67.3°W
Moving: W at 15 mph
Min pressure: 1011 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph

[IcyTundra]

Downgraded to Tropical Depression.

[SoupBone]

I wonder if the downgrade was due to a slow progression to a wave? How is a TD still supported at this point with recon data?

[lrak]

well crud...sure hope it stays a storm!

i wonder if SpaceX is worried.

[wxman57]

The NHC is feeling generous with its classification this afternoon. They also kept a "center" at 17N for some reason. At least they keep it a TD to past Cuba now and they adjusted the track south. Not far enough south, though, most likely. Missing the DR and Cuba won't help it much for the next 3-4 days. Will likely become a TS in the southwest Gulf or northern BoC Friday/Saturday then visit Mexico. I may be off 12-14 hr shifts after tomorrow. Season can end now.

[hipshot]

well crud...sure hope it stays a storm!

i wonder if SpaceX is worried.

What does "i wonder if SpaceX is worried" mean?

[aspen]

Grace’s “center” should’ve been put at around 16.0-16.5N. There’s nothing at 17.0N.

This is reminding me a bit of Harvey during its initial trek through the Caribbean.

[toad strangler]

I wonder if the downgrade was due to a slow progression to a wave? How is a TD still supported at this point with recon data?

THey might save the POOFAGE for 11PM when less are looking

[toad strangler]

Season can end now.

Not a chance!

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1427008311631642628




If Webb is right and it relocates to the South then Watch out. This thing could come back in a hurry

[lrak]

well crud...sure hope it stays a storm!

i wonder if SpaceX is worried.

What does "i wonder if SpaceX is worried" mean?

All this outside
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FLTncjUbQtI

And a launch this month.

[Nimbus]

After they took the birds in at St Martin we were basically following a wave apex WNW.
Waiting to see what is closed off south of Cuba for WXman57's Grace forecast.
Hein means "home leader" and is a Dutch form of Henry.

[ConvergenceZone]

The NHC is feeling generous with its classification this afternoon. They also kept a "center" at 17N for some reason. At least they keep it a TD to past Cuba now and they adjusted the track south. Not far enough south, though, most likely. Missing the DR and Cuba won't help it much for the next 3-4 days. Will likely become a TS in the southwest Gulf or northern BoC Friday/Saturday then visit Mexico. I may be off 12-14 hr shifts after tomorrow. Season can end now.

Man, hopefully you'll get a nice break from those 12-14 hour office shifts....... I work 12 hour days too, but I trade stock options and sell on ebay for a living, so I absolutely love it.......... as it's not work to me at all........But I can't imagine working in an office that long UGH!!! So glad I became an entrepreneur. Hope you will get a nice break at least until September...

[wxman57]

The NHC is feeling generous with its classification this afternoon. They also kept a "center" at 17N for some reason. At least they keep it a TD to past Cuba now and they adjusted the track south. Not far enough south, though, most likely. Missing the DR and Cuba won't help it much for the next 3-4 days. Will likely become a TS in the southwest Gulf or northern BoC Friday/Saturday then visit Mexico. I may be off 12-14 hr shifts after tomorrow. Season can end now.

Man, hopefully you'll get a nice break from those 12-14 hour office shifts....... I work 12 hour days too, but I trade stock options and sell on ebay for a living, so I absolutely love it.......... as it's not work to me at all........But I can't imagine working in an office that long UGH!!! So glad I became an entrepreneur. Hope you will get a nice break at least until September...

Since last March, we're still working from home. Very short commutes are great, but I miss all my office friends.