ATL: GRACE - Models

[lsuhurricane]

18z Euro keeps this interesting as moves WNW into the southern GOM. Ends the run as a TS roughly 100 miles north of the Yucutan Peninsula.

Ensembles are also very bullish (probably the most active since formation) on Grace once in the GOM. Keep an eye out TX and LA.

[IcyTundra]

18z Euro keeps this interesting as moves WNW into the southern GOM. Ends the run as a TS roughly 100 miles north of the Yucutan Peninsula.

Ensembles are also very bullish (probably the most active since formation) on Grace once in the GOM. Keep an eye out TX and LA.

The Euro ensembles are further north than the GFS ensembles will be interesting to see what happens.

[ElectricStorm]

HWRF 993mb into Hispaniola

HMON clips Hispaniola at 1006mb

[ElectricStorm]

Briefly intensifies again but then opens up into a wave between Jamaica and Cuba on HMON

EDIT: Might actually be barely closed still

[ElectricStorm]

HWRF looks like it has the center reforming further south after hitting Hispaniola. Also goes between Cuba and Jamaica

[ElectricStorm]

HMON 993mb into the Yucatan

[Keldeo1997]

HWRF has a Major into the Yucatan

[IcyTundra]

For what it's worth the CMC has 986 MB landfall a bit south of the Texas-Mexico border.

[Kingarabian]

For what it's worth the CMC has 986 MB landfall a bit south of the Texas-Mexico border.

The CMC has become solid in the past few years and a lot of us consider its solutions once again. The Euro and CMC like to follow each other. So will be interesting to see what the 00z Euro has in store.

[ElectricStorm]

Both HMON and HWRF are bombing this in the gulf now, HWRF will likely be stronger

[ElectricStorm]

HMON has it really growing in size before hitting Mexico as a major

[IcyTundra]

HMON looks like it has landfall just north of Tampico.

[ElectricStorm]

HWRF smashes Mexico with a Cat 4. 943mb

[Astromanía]

Ok now I'm getting nervous really nervous

[Keldeo1997]

Bad news boys. GFS is coming on bored with the HWRF/HMON and has a strong hurricane in the gulf now. This could get Ugly if this doesn't bury itself into the Yucatan

[SoupBone]

HWRF smashes Mexico with a Cat 4. 943mb

I don't ever dismiss the HWRF for location, but that model would turn your toilet bowl water into a Cat 5. I do see the GFS showing something more potent, so maybe it will be something, but just make sure you take the HWRF's intensity with a grain of salt.

[aspen]

06z HWRF is absolutely bonkers and has a 928 mbar Cat 4 Hurricane Grace right before landfall in Veracruz.

[Iceresistance]

06z HWRF is absolutely bonkers and has a 928 mbar Cat 4 Hurricane Grace right before landfall in Veracruz.

I know! What is with the HWRF?

[ElectricStorm]

HWRF smashes Mexico with a Cat 4. 943mb

I don't ever dismiss the HWRF for location, but that model would turn your toilet bowl water into a Cat 5. I do see the GFS showing something more potent, so maybe it will be something, but just make sure you take the HWRF's intensity with a grain of salt.

Yeah I know I was just posting what it had. Although I do think a strong storm is likely if it gets into the gulf, but probably not as strong as HWRF shows

[Rgv20]

Looks like Grace will make a visit to the Western Gulf...6zGFS Ensembles are more concentrated on Tampico Mexico as a final landfall. Looks to me like the Euro has a heavy consensus also around the Tampico area but enough spread to keep a close eye down here in Deep South Texas.

6zGFS Ensembles


6zECMWF Ensembles