ATL: HENRI - Remnants - Discussion

[BensonTCwatcher]

TD 08 was just not anywhere to be seen on the models early Sunday morning. GFS and Euro trends keep moving toward a more developed storm as we go along. I see a small ULL to the SW of the system, a bit of dry air to the west and some strong SE shear coming in the next 24 hours on the GFS plots. All that said, something looks to be up on the HWRF ( forget the storm intensity right now) and I'm not 100% bought in past 72 hours. The ridge is building in and oriented NE to SW and if a future Henri does hold off the shear and dry air, and can stack up and get an anticyclone in place, It could follow that ridge around more the like the HWRF is showing and end up threatening the SE US coast. Not that likely at this point, but I think the next 24 hours will decide that. Watching today to see if it stacks up against the shear and dry air.

[ElectricStorm]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eight Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
1100 AM AST Mon Aug 16 2021

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALMOST A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.3N 62.8W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 185 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES

[chaser1]

TD 8 was reported to be moving south (185 degrees) at the 8:00am intermediate advis. Thereafter, it is currently forecast to begin a clockwise loop eventually leading to a more poleward motion in the 3-5 day period. That track would keep the small cyclone north of 30N Latitude. In the unlikely event that the TD were to track a bit further south though, it seems that the deep layer flow could actually push the system toward the N. Florida/Georgia coast. I'm pointing this out simply because the TD actually appears to be moving Southeast at the present time. Not sure if that might result in any further southward drop in latitude.... or simply cause the system to eventually make a counter-clockwise (rather then clockwise) loop instead.

[abajan]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/a6O69sE5nGE[/youtube]

[Sciencerocks]

[AlphaToOmega]

The NHC is taking a long time to upgrade Tropical Depression 08L.

[Yellow Evan]

TXNT23 KNES 161750
TCSNTL

A. 08L (NONAME)

B. 16/1731Z

C. 31.3N

D. 63.2W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.5/2.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS 4/10 BANDING RESULTING TO A DT OF 2.5. THE
1705Z GMI 89 GHZ MW PASS PICKS UP THE BANDING FEATURE. ADDITIONALLY,
THE 37 GHZ REVEALS A STRONG SIGNATURE AT THE LOW-LEVELS SE OF THE LLCC
INDICATING POSSIBLE STRENGTHENING. THE 24 HR DEVELOPING TREND RESULTS
IN DEVELOPING SLOWLY. MET AND PT ARE 2.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...PATEL

[aspen]

TXNT23 KNES 161750
TCSNTL

A. 08L (NONAME)

B. 16/1731Z

C. 31.3N

D. 63.2W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.5/2.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS 4/10 BANDING RESULTING TO A DT OF 2.5. THE
1705Z GMI 89 GHZ MW PASS PICKS UP THE BANDING FEATURE. ADDITIONALLY,
THE 37 GHZ REVEALS A STRONG SIGNATURE AT THE LOW-LEVELS SE OF THE LLCC
INDICATING POSSIBLE STRENGTHENING. THE 24 HR DEVELOPING TREND RESULTS
IN DEVELOPING SLOWLY. MET AND PT ARE 2.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...PATEL

TS Henri at 5pm?

[aspen]

18z best track is up to 35 kt. We have Henri!

[AlphaToOmega]

AL, 08, 2021081618, , BEST, 0, 311N, 629W, 35, 1010, TS, 34, NEQ, 20, 30, 20, 0, 1016, 100, 25, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, EIGHT, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 021,

[Stormybajan]

18z best track is up to 35 kt. We have Henri!

Bonjour Henri ! Maybe if Grace gets her act together again we can have 3 named storms active simultaneously, which would be impressive for August 16th

[Sciencerocks]

[aspen]

18z best track is up to 35 kt. We have Henri!

Bonjour Henri ! Maybe if Grace gets her act together again we can have 3 named storms active simultaneously, which would be impressive for August 16th

The NHC says Grace was probably a TS before land interaction with Hispaniola. I think post-season analysis will result in three TS-intensity storms active at this time.

[Sciencerocks]

[Hammy]

Sort of looks like a miniature scale model of some developing MDR systems I've seen over the years.

[Sciencerocks]

[Hypercane_Kyle]

00z GFS shows Henri intensifying into a Cat 1/2 hurricane by next Monday.

[ElectricStorm]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Henri Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
200 AM AST Tue Aug 17 2021

...HENRI MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 63.5W
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 215 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1427578645078478848

[Shell Mound]

This reminds me of Joaquin. As soon as its centres became aligned, RI ensued. By 72h northerly shear should lessen as Henri nears the Gulf Stream and undergoes favourable interaction with the approaching ML trough to its northwest. During that timeframe I could easily see RI into a hurricane, possibly even a low-end major. I would not underestimate the subtropics, especially given near-record warmth in the NW Atlantic. However, the ML trough and westerly flow around its base (see the EPS above) will still act to prevent Henri from making landfall on the CONUS, but the latter could well deliver better-than-expected surf to the Outer Banks and environs.