ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

[cheezyWXguy]

https://i.imgur.com/YFOlr9u.png

Yikes, looks like the faint outline of a cloud filled eye in that pic…

[TallyTracker]

The core looks to be eroding somewhat due to dry-air intrusion. That’s probably gonna make it hard to reach hurricane intensity unless the dry air gets mixed out in the next couple of hours.

[ElectricStorm]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fred Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

...FRED EXPECTED TO BRING A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND HEAVY RAINS
TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED EASTWARD TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.2N 85.7W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES

[MGC]

That dry air being sucked into Fred might have cost him a chance at becoming a hurricane. Still a small chance IMO. Strong TS at landfall.....MGC

[aspen]

Darn, the barometer on the recon plane stopped working.

[cheezyWXguy]

That dry air being sucked into Fred might have cost him a chance at becoming a hurricane. Still a small chance IMO. Strong TS at landfall.....MGC

I don’t think this a dealbreaker. Radar an hour ago looked like the entire south side evaporated. Now it looks like it’s trying to pull moisture around the sw side, and it would probably only take a couple hours to close this off if it gets a chance. This hiccup probably prevents the hwrf cat2 scenario from occurring, but a 75mph cat1 is still on the table imo.

[snowpocalypse]

Why is the wind/rain forecast in such a narrow swath going through South & Middle AL/GA? Speed?

Normally we see more precip being on the east side of gulf storms.

[abajan]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/a6O69sE5nGE[/youtube]

[tolakram]

Saved loop

[SunnyThoughts]

Looks like headed straight for Mexico Beach...where Michael made landfall.

[SconnieCane]

Looks like headed straight for Mexico Beach...where Michael made landfall.

What is the deal with storms hitting the exact same spots over and over with such a vast expanse of coastline to work with? Laura and Delta...Eta and Iota...Grace was even initially expected to take the same path over Hispaniola as Fred just did.

[gulf701]

Gulf County, FL Fred update: Rain 1.43 in, Current rain rate .75 in/hr ,Wind NE 19mph, Barometer 1008.9/29.78 and falling.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Dry slot or not, the core seems to continue to organize. Seeing more yellows and orange - on radar building on the North side of the center.

[wx98]

Why is the wind/rain forecast in such a narrow swath going through South & Middle AL/GA? Speed?

Normally we see more precip being on the east side of gulf storms.

It was forecast to be on the east side of a Pensacola landfall. The storm is coming in way east, so those rainfall forecasts will likely be off some.

[tolakram]

Fred is losing the battle IMO.

saved loop

[tolakram]

saved loop

[TallyTracker]

Fred’s making one last desperate attempt at closing off a core. That western eyewall looks nasty. It’s gonna be close to see if it makes hurricane though with the moat being so large. Apalachicola is gonna be out of the rain soon at this rate. My guess is 70 mph at landfall.

[ElectricStorm]

Yeah I'm going with a 65-70mph landfall but I'm a bit surprised the NHC hasn't put any hurricane watches up. A 65-70 mph TS isn't going to be much better than a 75mph Cat 1 coming in.

[Hurricane Mike]

Video Update on Fred
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O9EZIKdGQkY