2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[lsuhurricane]

Some decent agreement between the above CMC storm at 240 hours and a few 12z Euro Ensembles.

All appear to be headed due west with stout ridging their north. Would certainly match climatology for that last week of August.

12z Euro ens hasn't updated yet.

It has, I'm watching it roll out real-time on a paid site.

[StormPyrate]

Some decent agreement between the above CMC storm at 240 hours and a few 12z Euro Ensembles.

All appear to be headed due west with stout ridging their north. Would certainly match climatology for that last week of August.

12z Euro ens hasn't updated yet.

It has, I'm watching it roll out real-time on a paid site.

https://i.ibb.co/JqdwTtP/Screen-Shot-2021-08-16-at-2-43-22-PM.png

I love the spaghettios how does one get access to that?

[IcyTundra]

This is out in GFS fantasyland but the 18Z GFS shows a weak TS making landfall along the Central Texas coast Saturday, August 28th.

[lsuhurricane]

This is out in GFS fantasyland but the 18Z GFS shows a weak TS making landfall along the Central Texas coast Saturday, August 28th.

You can roughly trace this back to the same wave that will be traversing through the entire Atlantic. Same wave that generated feedback for the above Euro ensembles

[SoupBone]

This is out in GFS fantasyland but the 18Z GFS shows a weak TS making landfall along the Central Texas coast Saturday, August 28th.

You can roughly trace this back to the same wave that will be traversing through the entire Atlantic. Same wave that generated feedback for the above Euro ensembles

Yeah, still lots of things can change by then as we all know. Can we fast forward to October yet?

[kevin]

While none get very strong, the euro ensemble does show potential for MDR systems over the next 10 days.

[otowntiger]

While none get very strong, the euro ensemble does show potential for MDR systems over the next 10 days.

https://i.imgur.com/MQLMUTV.png

interestingly it looks like a good number of those ensemble runs want to re-curve. I thought the Bermuda High was looking extra stout thus season?

[AlphaToOmega]

While none get very strong, the euro ensemble does show potential for MDR systems over the next 10 days.

https://i.imgur.com/MQLMUTV.png

interestingly it looks like a good number of those ensemble runs want to re-curve. I thought the Bermuda High was looking extra stout thus season?

Henri might be creating a weakness in the Azores High.

[Teban54]

While none get very strong, the euro ensemble does show potential for MDR systems over the next 10 days.

https://i.imgur.com/MQLMUTV.png

interestingly it looks like a good number of those ensemble runs want to re-curve. I thought the Bermuda High was looking extra stout thus season?

Henri might be creating a weakness in the Azores High.

In other words, if the ridge builds back in after Henri is gone... Watch out.

[Cpv17]

Is that a CAG system the GFS wants to spin up and head towards Texas? It sure looks that way to me.

[gatorcane]

gatorcane is a wee bit bullish about a land wave. Uh Oh

Looks like I was a wee too bullish. Even the CMC no longer develops. Conditions appear hostile between the Lesser Antilles and Africa still.

[captainbarbossa19]

gatorcane is a wee bit bullish about a land wave. Uh Oh

Looks like I was a wee too bullish. Even the CMC no longer develops. Conditions appear hostile between the Lesser Antilles and Africa still.

These waves may not do much until they move further west.

[gatorcane]

Just when is said that above, the Euro develops

[AutoPenalti]

Just when is said that above, the Euro develops

https://i.postimg.cc/XqPyGNsC/ecmwf-uv850-vort-eatl-fh0-168.gif

Looks like a break in the Ridge sends this OTS.

Seems once Henri loops around Bermuda, it will be leaving a bit of energy in the central atlantic that creates a small break allowing it to move away.

[Hammy]

Euro seems to get us to at least 10 storms by September.

[Cpv17]

gatorcane is a wee bit bullish about a land wave. Uh Oh

Looks like I was a wee too bullish. Even the CMC no longer develops. Conditions appear hostile between the Lesser Antilles and Africa still.

These waves may not do much until they move further west.

That’ll be the case for the next few weeks till the MJO is favorable for development further east.

[aspen]

12z Euro has Ida form in the MDR and recurve around 50W, and later Julian going through the Shredder but surviving into the Bahamas. The ensembles really like Ida and kinda support the possibility of other MDR/AEW storms in the next 10 days.

[captainbarbossa19]

12z Euro has Ida form in the MDR and recurve around 50W, and later Julian going through the Shredder but surviving into the Bahamas. The ensembles really like Ida and kinda support the possibility of other MDR/AEW storms in the next 10 days.

Right. Some ensembles show the next system passing north of the Greater Antilles unlike the operational run.

[captainbarbossa19]

Just when is said that above, the Euro develops

https://i.postimg.cc/XqPyGNsC/ecmwf-uv850-vort-eatl-fh0-168.gif

The GFS shows dry air from the SAL outbreak wrapping into the wave and so it does not develop. I am not sure why the Euro shows it intensifying when it turns north into drier air. I am thinking that the wave behind this one might end up being Ida.

[tolakram]

GFS invents a new storm. Not sure I believe this, but the EUro has an echo as well, just off the east coast instead.